Football Betting Previews

Betting knowledge - micro leagues (Friday, July 27, 2007)

The Pinnacle Pulse Thursday 26th July 2007 Soccer Micro-Leagues The Inside Line from the Pinnacle Sports book by Hobbes A focus on Soccer Micro-leagues Nearly all of the world's biggest soccer leagues take a summer hiatus, but one look at the betting menu of PinnacleSports.com will show you that there is still plenty of action to bet on. Aside from the large summer tournaments like the Copa America, games are also being played in most of Northern Europe and South America. Granted, many of these leagues don't have the big name players to capture the imagination of most bettors, but by ignoring the so-called 'micro-leagues' you are missing out on a lot of potential betting value. Why should you bet the micro-leagues? Well for starters you get the same low commission margins we deal on the big soccer leagues. At -104/-104 (that's 1.96/1.96 in decimal odds style) on sides and -105/-105 (1.95/1.95) on total goals scored, it only takes the smallest edge for you to show a profit from your handicapping. Now, combine the low margins with the fact that many of these leagues are untouched markets and the potential for profit really shines through. When we first start accepting bets on a micro-league, the limits are too small for the big professional players to notice, which means much of the action in the early days comes from recreational players. This is a huge benefit for the average bettor. Since the limits are small and the leagues are not widely tracked in the mainstream press, any amount of research you do means that you gain an edge on the field. Without any professionals to take aim at the lines and sharpen them up, you are more likely to get soft lines, which will help your profitability in the long-term. Thus, with just a small portion of your time spent studying the field, you could become a sharp for these leagues. Granted, being the sharpest guy in a league where you can only get in fifty dollars a pop isn't exactly a get-rich-quick scheme, but what we have seen with many of our micro- leagues is that they quickly graduate into full-fledged betting markets. Areas where you once could only bet fifty dollars often see limit increases to $500, $1,000, and even $5,000 a bet as the volume goes up, and the very act of new bettors (like yourself) getting involved in a league makes it bigger. Thus by getting a handle on the leagues when they are small, you can pinpoint areas where you are sharp when the market is weak and then take huge advantage of what you learn when the league graduates to the big time for betting purposes. Some of you might be a bit lost about how to go about tackling a new, completely unknown league, but the basics are very similar to what you would do for La Liga, Serie A, or the Premiership. Look at the current results table. Examine how strong the teams are, how many goals they score at home and away, and then look at the odds posted for upcoming games and figure out if anything seems strange to you. Asian handicaps are sometimes difficult to predict when you are just getting familiar with a league, but over/under total goals scored in many of the micros are exceptionally soft, and winning on totals bets in the micro-leagues often seem to come down to some simple mathematics. Expect us to have a lot more to say about soccer handicapping in a future column. For those of you looking over our massive offering of leagues and finding it difficult to determine where to start, my advice is to pick something local. Any news you read about these small leagues gives you an edge over the field, which should increase your chances of winning. Even when the big leagues get rolling in the coming weeks, micro-leagues will continue to offer value that you likely won't get anywhere else. Here's a look at what our sharps have been playing lately in three of the micro-leagues that graduated to bigger limits: Icelandic One of the things you notice from seeing a lot of bets come through is that the team at the top of the table rarely seems to earn value plays from most sharps, especially in smaller markets. This is because typically the line already includes a lot of general public action/opinion on the favorite in these games, meaning most of our sharp players steer clear. Meanwhile, undervalued mid-table clubs are the sharp's bread and butter. This is particularly true in Icelandic soccer, where FH Hafnarfjordur (the team at the top) sees almost no sharp bets, while mid-table clubs like Fylkir, HK Kopavogur, and Breidablik are earning consistent sharp attention, especially when playing at home. Lithuanian A Lithuanian A can get surprising amounts of volume, depending on which teams are playing. The sharp plays in this league recently have mostly been heavily fading (betting against) FC Vilnius and Interas, while taking the Over in these games also seems to be yielding dividends. Brazil Serie B Overs in Brasiliense games have been on fire lately, while bottom-half club Avai has been enjoying a good run of form recently and has merited a lot of side action in July. Additionally, despite giving up 33 goals in their away games, Unders for Avai have not only been seeing sharp play recently, but have also been paying off. Finally, Portuguesa is a side that has seen occasional sharp play over the last month, mostly in their away games, which is an intriguing twist. Moving back to the big leagues, soccer futures for all the major European leagues are now available for betting on PinnacleSports.com, as are week 1 fixtures. Next week, we'll cover all the action in the futures market and the kickoff of Ligue 1. Until then, may the soccer minnows in the micro-leagues make you a mint. Labels: betting knowledge, Pinnacle Sports Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 11:42 AM

Euro Qualifiers midweek preview by pinnaclesports (Monday, June 04, 2007)

The second instalment of a Euro 2008 double-bill takes place on Wednesday night, with crucial games right across Europe. None could be more significant than Group E game in Tallinn, where England face Estonia desperately needing a win. Of course there is no room for sentiment in gambling, so bettors should be wary of the emotive headlines surrounding the game and instead focus on getting the best odds, usually found at PinnacleSports.com - offering up to 60% better Euro 2008 odds. Will Becks Come to McLaren's Rescue? One of the first decisions Steve McLaren took when installed as England manager was a bold one. Having earned 94 caps, he dropped the Three Lions captain, David Beckham, by phone, following a poor showing at the World Cup. The media saw this as a bold statement of intent, and the country looked forward to a fresh new era for the national side, with a smooth Euro 2008 qualification campaign anticipated. Things haven't quite gone to plan for McLaren. England are currently fourth in Group E after a bitterly disappointing sequence of results including goalless draws at home to Macedonia and away to Israel, and defeat to Croatia in Zagreb. The new England manager's stock has plummeted and he recently performed a humiliating U-turn over Beckham, welcoming him back into the England fold, hoping Becks might save his skin in Tallinn on Wednesday night. Worst still for McLaren, he is without Wayne Rooney through suspension, and cannot call on striker, Andy Johnson or winger Aaron Lennon, part of a growing number of other key absentees. Owen Hargreaves - one of the only players to come away from the 2006 World Cup with any credit - misses out with a knee injury. Hargreaves' new team-mates, Gary Neville and Rio Ferdinand are also crocked, part of a defensive crisis which accounts for Ashley Cole, Micah Richards and Jonathan Woodgate. PinnacleSports.com price England 2.06 (-2) with Estonia 1.87 (+2) suggesting the Three Lions should prevail against a side devoid of recognisable talent, yet to score in this campaign. The visitors will however face a difficult playing surface, and a side with nothing to lose who only lost to group leaders Croatia by a single goal on Saturday. Croatia Defending Lengthy Unbeaten Run in Zagreb The stakes will be high when the two remaining unbeaten sides in Euro 2008 Group E meet in Zagreb on Wednesday night. Victory for either Croatia or Russia would take them within touching distance of next year's finals in Austria and Switzerland. Though the sides are well matched, PinnacleSports.com make the Croats slight favourites 2.09 (-0.5) against Russia 1.84 (+0.5) on the strength of a 31 game unbeaten run at the Maksimir Stadium. It was at the same venue that early group favourites England were comprehensively beaten 2-0 by Slaven Bilic's improving side. Both teams recorded victories on Saturday, with Russia enjoying a comfortable 4-0 win over Andorra, three goals coming from Sevilla striker, Aleksandr Kerzhakov who will carry the greatest Russian threat. Croatia laboured to a 1-0 win away to Estonia, where Brazilian born, Eduardo, scored his six goal in qualification, keeping his adopted country on top of the group. Get the Best Euro 2008 Odds at PinnacleSports.com! 1.96/1.96 style pricing (c.102%) on the major European events gives gamblers up to 60% better Euro 2008 odds. PinnacleSports.com offers commission-free fixed odds betting with exchange style pricing, as well as the web's highest guaranteed liquidity and fastest payouts. Get a 10% sign-up bonus, 7% cash back on US horse bets and the best odds on all major sports. Find a Smarter Way To Bet at PinnacleSports.com Labels: Betting, Euro, Pinnacle Sports, Qualifiers Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 11:06 PM

Champions League final preview by Pinnacle Sports (Tuesday, May 22, 2007)

Champions League - Milan Seek Revenge Over Rafa's Reds AC Milan and Liverpool meet in Wednesday night's Champions League showdown for a re-run of the 2005 final. The encounter in Athens will struggle to live up to its predecessor, which saw Liverpool amaze Milan by overturning a 3-0 halftime deficit, eventually winning on penalties. The desire for retribution spurred the Rossoneri to knock out premiership Champions Man Utd in their semi-final second leg with a master class of soccer at the San Siro led by Brazilian, Kaka, dashing hopes of a first ever all Premiership final. Milan are now favourites with PinnacleSports.com to lift the trophy priced 1.658, but can Liverpool at 2.420 repeat the Italian job? Both managers know what it takes to lift the European Cup. Rafa Benitez was of course in charge of Liverpool on that fateful night in Istanbul in 2005, when his opposite number, Carlo Ancelotti, watched in amazement as his side relinquished a three goal half-time lead to a Steven Gerrard inspired Liverpool come-back. Ancelotti will have better memories of Old Trafford in 2003 when Milan won an all-Italian Champions League final against Juventus, also on spot-kicks, and of 1990 when he was part of the winning Rossoneri side that beat Benfica 1-0 in Vienna. Were Milan to succeed in the final it would mark an amazing turnaround in fortunes for the Italian giants. The original judgements of last summer's Italian match-fixing scandal handed AC a 15 point Serie A deduction and banned them from participation in this competition. After an appeal the points handicap was reduced to eight and their Champions League exclusion was lifted, opening the road to the final. Despite the reprieve, the 2003 winners began both their domestic and European campaigns poorly, but have improved immeasurably since the turn of the year. The form of Kaka has been integral, the Brazilian leads the Champions League scoring charts with 10 goals, while Ancelotti's deployment of Dutch midfielder, Clarence Seedorf, in a much more advanced position has been paying real dividends. Milan have lost just once in 13 games are now exuding the kind of confidence that has taken the club to ten previous European Cup finals. Liverpool's challenge is to match Milan's desire for revenge with their own conviction to repeat the success in Istanbul. Their travelling fans played a huge role that night and will again inspire their heroes to greater efforts. Benitez will have paid close attention to the speed with which Milan attacked United at the San Siro, and guard against a similar onslaught. One common criticism of the Reds is that at times their build-up play can be deliberate, particularly if Gerrard is muted. The Liverpool captain will have to shake of the attention of the bearded Gennaro Gattuso who will be his shadow for 90 minutes, just one element of what promises to be a fascinating final. *(Please note that all odds are subject to change) 60% better Champions League odds at PinnacleSports.com! 1.96/1.96 style pricing (c.102%) on the major European Football Leagues gives gamblers up to 60% better Champions League odds. PinnacleSports.com offers commission-free fixed odds betting with exchange style pricing, as well as the web's highest guaranteed liquidity and fastest payouts. Get a 10% sign-up bonus, 7% cash back on US horse bets and the best odds on all major sports. Find a Smarter Way To Bet at PinnacleSports.com Labels: Betting, Champions League, Pinnacle Sports Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 2:49 PM