Betting knowledge - micro leagues (Friday, July 27, 2007)

The Pinnacle Pulse Thursday 26th July 2007 Soccer Micro-Leagues The Inside Line from the Pinnacle Sports book by Hobbes A focus on Soccer Micro-leagues Nearly all of the world's biggest soccer leagues take a summer hiatus, but one look at the betting menu of PinnacleSports.com will show you that there is still plenty of action to bet on. Aside from the large summer tournaments like the Copa America, games are also being played in most of Northern Europe and South America. Granted, many of these leagues don't have the big name players to capture the imagination of most bettors, but by ignoring the so-called 'micro-leagues' you are missing out on a lot of potential betting value. Why should you bet the micro-leagues? Well for starters you get the same low commission margins we deal on the big soccer leagues. At -104/-104 (that's 1.96/1.96 in decimal odds style) on sides and -105/-105 (1.95/1.95) on total goals scored, it only takes the smallest edge for you to show a profit from your handicapping. Now, combine the low margins with the fact that many of these leagues are untouched markets and the potential for profit really shines through. When we first start accepting bets on a micro-league, the limits are too small for the big professional players to notice, which means much of the action in the early days comes from recreational players. This is a huge benefit for the average bettor. Since the limits are small and the leagues are not widely tracked in the mainstream press, any amount of research you do means that you gain an edge on the field. Without any professionals to take aim at the lines and sharpen them up, you are more likely to get soft lines, which will help your profitability in the long-term. Thus, with just a small portion of your time spent studying the field, you could become a sharp for these leagues. Granted, being the sharpest guy in a league where you can only get in fifty dollars a pop isn't exactly a get-rich-quick scheme, but what we have seen with many of our micro- leagues is that they quickly graduate into full-fledged betting markets. Areas where you once could only bet fifty dollars often see limit increases to $500, $1,000, and even $5,000 a bet as the volume goes up, and the very act of new bettors (like yourself) getting involved in a league makes it bigger. Thus by getting a handle on the leagues when they are small, you can pinpoint areas where you are sharp when the market is weak and then take huge advantage of what you learn when the league graduates to the big time for betting purposes. Some of you might be a bit lost about how to go about tackling a new, completely unknown league, but the basics are very similar to what you would do for La Liga, Serie A, or the Premiership. Look at the current results table. Examine how strong the teams are, how many goals they score at home and away, and then look at the odds posted for upcoming games and figure out if anything seems strange to you. Asian handicaps are sometimes difficult to predict when you are just getting familiar with a league, but over/under total goals scored in many of the micros are exceptionally soft, and winning on totals bets in the micro-leagues often seem to come down to some simple mathematics. Expect us to have a lot more to say about soccer handicapping in a future column. For those of you looking over our massive offering of leagues and finding it difficult to determine where to start, my advice is to pick something local. Any news you read about these small leagues gives you an edge over the field, which should increase your chances of winning. Even when the big leagues get rolling in the coming weeks, micro-leagues will continue to offer value that you likely won't get anywhere else. Here's a look at what our sharps have been playing lately in three of the micro-leagues that graduated to bigger limits: Icelandic One of the things you notice from seeing a lot of bets come through is that the team at the top of the table rarely seems to earn value plays from most sharps, especially in smaller markets. This is because typically the line already includes a lot of general public action/opinion on the favorite in these games, meaning most of our sharp players steer clear. Meanwhile, undervalued mid-table clubs are the sharp's bread and butter. This is particularly true in Icelandic soccer, where FH Hafnarfjordur (the team at the top) sees almost no sharp bets, while mid-table clubs like Fylkir, HK Kopavogur, and Breidablik are earning consistent sharp attention, especially when playing at home. Lithuanian A Lithuanian A can get surprising amounts of volume, depending on which teams are playing. The sharp plays in this league recently have mostly been heavily fading (betting against) FC Vilnius and Interas, while taking the Over in these games also seems to be yielding dividends. Brazil Serie B Overs in Brasiliense games have been on fire lately, while bottom-half club Avai has been enjoying a good run of form recently and has merited a lot of side action in July. Additionally, despite giving up 33 goals in their away games, Unders for Avai have not only been seeing sharp play recently, but have also been paying off. Finally, Portuguesa is a side that has seen occasional sharp play over the last month, mostly in their away games, which is an intriguing twist. Moving back to the big leagues, soccer futures for all the major European leagues are now available for betting on PinnacleSports.com, as are week 1 fixtures. Next week, we'll cover all the action in the futures market and the kickoff of Ligue 1. Until then, may the soccer minnows in the micro-leagues make you a mint. Labels: betting knowledge, Pinnacle Sports Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 11:42 AM

Weekend Betting Preview by Gerry McDonnell (Thursday, July 12, 2007)

A Ruck and a Charred Plaice We all do things in life that we later regret. More often than not; it involves pairing off with a tubster after a heavy night on the ale; or 'Lenny Henry syndrome' as it?s known on the street. I am particularly ashamed of my behaviour while on a family holiday in Greece. The hotel manager struggled to understand the wife's thick Glaswegian accent, and jumped to the conclusion that she was mentally challenged. I should really have set him straight, but a good parking space is hard to find. Being married to a Sweaty does have its drawbacks though, as an outbreak of violence is always just around the corner. I remember when I foolishly overcooked her fish supper: she dropped the nut more than a KP rep with Parkinson's. Her family are all of a similar ilk. Her older brother used to fight professionally until he lost both legs in a tragic caber-tossing accident. Boxing aficionados will probably be familiar with the name of Willy Nick McCrack; he went 16 fights without defeat. As a result of seeing a multitude of scraps, i now consider myself a leading expert in the fight game. Amir Khan is an absolute stone-cold certainly at 1/12 against Willie Limond. At that price, i'd happily get on Jemima. Limond has only fought a quality opponent on one previous occasion; and it ended in a one-sided defeat. Alex Arthur literally took him to school that day; the headmistress had to have them both escorted off the premises. I'll take 5/1 for the referee stopping the fight in the seventh or eighth round. The Yanks could find themselves in all sorts of bother when the Open Championship tees off on Thursday. Carnoustie is known as 'the beast', and needless to say, I've been on it on quite a few occasions. I found it a thoroughly unpleasant experience; I got myself in all sorts of trouble on the approach to the second hole. It's definitely worth opposing the Tiger as the unfavourable conditions will prove a real leveller. It wouldn't surprise me if a complete no-hoper won, even Montgomerie can not be ruled out at this stage. I'll be having a little each-way tickle on the in form Justin Rose at 30/1. It's been reported that Frank Lampard spent two hours alone with a 'female friend' in a Las Vegas hotel suite. Frank was quick to deny accusations of any wrongdoing, and personally I believe him, it must take at least 90 minutes for his dinner to be delivered. When confronted by the news that Lampard is a high profile sportsman with a fiancé at home, Frank's 'acquaintance' moaned, "This is terrible. I don?t know what to do. This is a nightmare." Lenny Henry syndrome respects no borders. I'll be truly devastated if I miss Argentina at 6/5 in the Copa America finale. Labels: Betting, boxing, Copa America, Golf Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 2:41 PM

Betting Weekend Preview by Gerry McDonnell (Thursday, July 05, 2007)

Hate Days are Weak Smarter people than me, if such a group actually exist, have struggled to find a solution to the threat of terror. Islamic fundamentalists are often berated, but I have a certain amount of sympathy for their plight: if I couldn't have a bet or a bacon sandwich, I'd probably be suicidal myself. I don't want to ram my own theories down anyone's throat (if I was to ram anything down somebody's throat, it wouldn't be a theory), but the only way we can move forward as a multicultural society is to embrace the concept of secularism. The only church I would ever enter is the tubby Welsh one, and I'd need a good few ales beforehand to warm the goggles up. To hate your fellow man because of the way he lives is absurd, but to hate because of the way a person looks is the height of stupidity. The make-up of skin colour is merely a solitary letter out of the 3.1 billion letters of human DNA. You don't have to be Stephen Hawking to realise the idiocy of racism, even Mrs Hawking could work that one out; if she wasn't down the gym working the bags. The world looked on in disgust as little as 50 years ago in Alabama, when a group of Caucasians chased after anyone with a darker skin. Yet somewhat ironically, the whole of Britain will cheer a repeat in the Grand Prix on Sunday afternoon. Lewis Hamilton is undoubtedly the natural heir to German cheating-machine Michael Schumacher. Bookmakers are offering odds of 11/4 about Lewis winning at Silverstone, that's a racing certainty. I was overjoyed to read that the Ferrari had caught up with McLaren, but my happiness subsided as I realised this had nothing to do with football. As a result of Raikkonen's win in Paris, Hamilton can now be backed at 8/13 to win the world championship. It's time to top up. Tennis is a sport that absolutely refuses to segregate; they'll happily accept any middle-class youngster into their ranks. This year's Wimbledon has been ruined by the atrocious weather. It's been confirmed that we endured the wettest June for 50 years; only Terry can be happy about that. I blame the rain for Mauresmo making an early exit from the tournament; you can't produce your best tennis if your balls are all soggy. I've decided to now get on Justine Henin at 4/9, she's a lucky girl. Sexism is another one of my pet-hates. I honestly believe that a woman can do anything that a man tells her to. I can't see any of the girls winning Big Brother though; if I had to point to a winner from any of the original housemates, I could only raise my finger to Amanda. Liam has to be supported at 7/2 for outright glory; it's one of the best bets ever. The great thing about cycling is the multinational nature of the sport. A person of any race, religion or sexual orientation can succeed, as long as they're prepared to put in the years of hard graft needed to find a quality chemist. Riding a bike in treacherous surroundings may sound unappealing, yet you never hear a word of complaint from Peter Andre. My sources tell me that Alejandro Valverde is a live runner in the Tour De France; I'll be getting on at 6/1. Homophobia remains prevalent in today's society. Personally, I can't see the problem with Prince Edward bringing up a baby. The 4/6 for England winning their one-day rubber-match against the West Indies is incredibly cute. Smokers are another group who are unfairly discriminated against. I just hope there's no truth in the rumour that a young Glaswegian will be prosecuted for lighting up in an airport. The 10/3 for Chile holding Brazil to a draw in their Copa America quarter-final will help recoup any draconian fine. Labels: Betting, Big Brother, Copa America, Cricket, Formula 1, Tennis Betting, Wimbledon Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 3:03 PM