WORLD CUP final PREVIEW by Gerry McDonnell (Friday, July 07, 2006)

There's a bad moo on the rise To be a successful bettor, you have to understand probability. If you toss a coin in the air there's a 50% chance that it will come down on heads, throw a dice in the air and there's a 16.6% chance that it will land on a 6, throw a cat in the air and there's a 100% chance that it will be a right good laugh. But occasionally, even if you're an expert in the field of probability theory, with an encyclopedic knowledge of football and the greatest staking plan since 'The Bride of Dracula', you can still do your proverbials if poor value teams like Italy keep on winning. Amazingly, the Italians are a short as 4/6 to lift the World Cup, and that's the most ridiculous investment since the wife had the cheek to pay for beauty products. The French have the necessary tools to lift the trophy; at odds of 11/10, stat nerds, value hunters and football anoraks will all be eating cheese, snails and various frog appendages, in a show of solidarity for our French brothers. To say that the Italians have had the luck of the draw throughout the competition is like saying that John Motson is annoying; it's so obvious that clarification is not just fluous, it's superfluous. The French are good things to wrap the game up in 90 minutes at 23/10. Correct score bettors need look no further than a 2-0 scoreline at 14/1, but perming 1-0 and 2-0 together at 7/2 is a little bit safer/camper. You can sum up the difference between the teams in two words, 'Thierry Henry'. The Gallic genius is the most complete player in the tournament, although the Spanish would probably call him a complete tart. Henry missed the final in '98 even though he was their top scorer at the time; if patience is a virtue, then Henry is on the path to righteousness. It's time for King Henry to ascend to the throne; it's 6/1 that he bags the opener. The Golden Shoe may sound like an item that one of the WAG's would buy, but it's actually the award for the competition's top scorer. (Personally, I don't allow the wife to go shopping for anything other than cleaning materials, but i'm far more flexible with the girlfriend.) Thierry Henry needs two more goals to potentially grab a share of the coveted award (the wife will also be receiving a shoe on Sunday); Henry is a 13/2 shot to net two or more goals. If all the rumours are true, Juventus players just have to turn up to win matches in Italy, which might explain Paddy Vieira's indifferent season. It's great to see Vieira look back to his thundering best, another commanding performance from the resurgent Vieira will see the French ease to victory. Man of the match betting is available, I've seen worse 10/1 shots that the mighty Patrick Vieira. The Italians have constantly surprised me throughout the competition. Their transformation from an over-hyped collection of show-ponies to an over-hyped, lucky collection of show-ponies has bordered on the extraordinary. The same accusation has often been thrown at Zinedine Zidane, but the reality is that Zizou remains the definition of greatness. A bet on the sublime Zidane for the 'man of the tournament' award (The Golden Ball) at 1/2 is money for old rope. Luca Toni had a massive reputation for his Serie A goal scoring exploits, but looks to be suffering from a serious case of Lamparditis, he couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo. On a related note, I once tried to hit a cow's arse with a banjo, at least that's what I told the police officer, although the lack of the banjo aroused some suspicion. Toni will not score, the French have a clean sheet in Le Bag, help yourself to 6/4. Franck Ribery may look like something that Dr Frankenstein knocked up after a heavy night on the ale, but it's not physical looks that make the footballer (otherwise I'd have 150 caps under my belt), pace, skill and grace are the key attributes and Ribery has all three in abundance. The youngster has improved from game to game and the 9/2 on offer for Ribery to score at any time should attract support. Whoever wins, I'll be walking in to the bookies with a big smile, asking if they'll pay me out on Argentina, as they're the moral winners of the competition. Although, there is a valuable lesson to be learned here; sometimes in life, it's not the winning that's important, it's the taking apart the betting shop if they refuse to pay. Weekend Betting: Italy v France Sunday 9th July 19.00 Italy 13/8 Draw 15/8 France 23/10 Get on: France Match Specials: "Top Totti" - Totti to score with a header 10/1 "Two Tone" - Luca Toni to score two or more goals 7/1 "Gattu blaster" - Gattuso to score from outside the area 20/1 "Caught on Camora" - Camoranesi to be sent off 33/1 "Gross misconduct" - Grosso to be booked 2/1 "Zid vicious" - Zidane to be booked 5/2 "Daylight Ribery" - Franck Ribery to score two or more goals 16/1 "De Gaulle of him" - Henry to be booked for diving 12/1 "Franck Butcher" - Ribery to be sent off 33/1 "Pat Butcher" - Vieira to be sent off 16/1 Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 5:48 AM

WORLD CUP weekend PREVIEW by Gerry McDonnell (Saturday, July 01, 2006)

Pie, have you forsaken me? Pricing up a football match is a lot like baking a pie. Get all the ingredients right and you have a sweet smelling pastry that will attract interest from afar; get the ingredients wrong, and you're left with a concoction so inedible, even Brazilian waddler Ronaldo would refuse to eat it all. If a full strength England were to meet a full strength Portugal, the majority of handsome, highly intelligent, sexually potent odds compilers would make England slight favourites. Decimate the Portuguese team with suspensions and injuries, and England's odds must fall like Arjen Robben in a penalty area. A couple of bookmakers appear to have left the 'team news' ingredient out of their respective pies, they're offering England at a huge 6/5 against a Portugal side riddled with reserves. If you don't take advantage of this oversight, you're basically condoning their behaviour. If there's one thing I can't stand, it's a bad pastry. Big Phil may have got the better of Sven in the last two tournaments, one more win for Scolari would allow him to take Sven home for keeps, but thanks to a card happy refereeing maniac, Portuguese dreams ended the moment Deco saw red. Take advantage by backing England to be winning at half time and full time at 13/5. Historically, England have been the better team. The 1966 World Cup winners used Portugal as a stepping stone, and Tom Finney and Stanley Matthews once inspired the Lions to a 10-0 win in Lisbon. The more cynical amongst you may feel the need to question the relevance of form from the 1940's, but it all adds to a feeling of genuine optimism. A 10-0 win for England can be safely ruled out, but a 2-0 victory looks bang on the money, 8/1 is available. England have a goalkeeper of genuine quality in Paul Robinson, but his recent performances have left a question mark hanging in the air. (If it was David James, he would have flapped at it before philosophically pondering the complexities of life while Pauleta rolled it into an empty net.) An England clean sheet has been priced up at 6/4, and that's a Peter Crouch price, it's too big and it shouldn't really be there. John Terry has been lined up to deliver a motivational speech in the dressing room before the match, I'm guessing he'll be holding a razor while declaring that bouncers don't like it up 'em. Terry looked wobbly against Ecuador, it's 9/1 that he makes amends by scoring with a header. Sven's bold decision to play a 4-5-1 against Ecuador freed up Lampard and Gerrard as expected, but Frank hardly covered himself in glory. Lampard had such a disappointing match, at the end of the game he tried to shake hands with the ref and missed by a good five yards. Frank scoring from outside the area has been priced up at 11/2, he's due. I refuse to shy away from asking the tough questions. Is it true that Victoria Beckham was the inspiration for the Robert De Niro film 'WAG the dog'? Sorry, that's a trifle harsh, on the poor pooch. Vicky did jump up like an excited Chihuahua when Becks curled in the winner against Ecuador, hopefully, I'll get to see her excited again. Becks threw up after scoring, a scenario I'm more than familiar with; Golden Balls is an 8/1 shot to score direct from a free-kick for the second match running. Brazil face France on Saturday night, and the Samba Boys have to be opposed. Ronaldo may be the greatest World Cup goal scorer of all-time, but his lack of mobility will prove to be a hindrance now they finally face quality opposition. How can Brazil play with a striker who has to stay five yards in front of the last French defender, in order to keep his stomach from drifting into an offside position? He can't use his body weight to challenge a defender, as it could lead to a charge of attempted murder. The French are the call at 4/1. Thierry Henry was a little bit naughty against the Spanish, rolling on the floor clutching his face like he was Phil Neville in a house of mirrors. It could be that his: "Next time i'll learn to dive maybe, but i am not a woman," outburst after the Champions League final was actually a statement of intent. Henry glides like a ballerina and even when he scores, he has the facial expression of a lady who has 'the decorators in'. Teri can still play though; take 7/1 about Henry opening the scoring. I'm not going to waste your time by going into too much detail on Friday's quarter finals, as the Argies and the Italians are such nailed on, in the bag, already past the post, absolutely raging certainties. The Friday double pays out at a healthy 10/3. Weekend Betting: Germany v Argentina Friday 30th June 16.00 Germany 7/4 Draw 21/10 Argentina 7/4 Get on: Argentina Match Special: "Big Max" - Maxi Rodriguez to score with a header 10/1 Italy v Ukraine Friday 30th June 20.00 Italy 8/13 Draw 13/5 Ukraine 11/2 Get on: Italy Match Special: "Pirl jam" - Pirlo to score direct from a free-kick 10/1 England v Portugal Saturday 1st July 16.00 England 6/5 Draw 9/4 Portugal 11/4 Get on: England Match Special: "My name is Hurl" - David Beckham to score at any time 4/1 Brazil v France Saturday 1st July 20.00 Brazil 5/6 Draw 12/5 France 4/1 Get on: France Match Special: "Thierry, wait" - Henry to score in the second half 5/1 Posted by soccerbetting.info @ 4:46 PM