FC Porto

FC Porto V Braga

Date & Kick-Off: Wednesday, 18th May 2011 – 19:45 (GMT)
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
TV Coverage: Channel 5

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Preview

The Europa League final pitches up in Dublin, Ireland for the very first time in the history of the competition, whether that be under the old or new format, and it’s a unique show-piece which pits two teams from the same country, though of contrasting styles, against one another as a free-scoring FC Porto tackle an organised Braga in the first all-Portuguese final in UEFA competition history.

Just about everyone has FC Porto down as the favourites, as do crucially the bookmakers. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why, either.

It was only last month that Porto were wrapping up the Portuguese league title, which they would later win by the most emphatic of margins – by 21 points – a record in Portugal. Furthermore, victory on Wednesday over Braga would leave Andre Villas Boas and his players on the cusp of greatness, with a treble in the offing as the ‘Dragons’ gear up for two finals – Europa League and Portuguese Cup – within the space of just four days.

Braga, meanwhile, have just one major honour to their name – a Portuguese Cup way back in 1966 – which is in stark contrast to their rivals who have amassed no fewer than 57 domestic honours and four European titles. So you can instantly recognise the team boasting all the pedigree. Having said that, Braga have spent virtually the entirety of the Europa League knockouts facing up to bigger fish, to which they thrived as the underdog, recording aggregate victories over Liverpool and Benfica en route to the final, and the Arsenalistas will be hoping to prevail against the odds once again on Wednesday.

In order to counter their inferiority complex, Braga have been extremely well organised, all over the park, and admirably resolute at the back. The proof is in the pudding, having conceded just four times during their four knockout ties, as well as keeping five clean sheets. But can they go one further and contain a Porto side which has found locating the back of net a breeze, and will be spearheaded by none other than the competition’s leading scorer?

Radamel Falcao has already broken records with his ruthless quest for goals. The Colombian has found the net sixteen times in this season’s competition making him the most prolific goalscorer in a single UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign. So stopping him would be a start, although Falcao cannot be singled out for treatment when players like Joao Maoutinho, Fredy Guarin and Hulk are on the loose, four players who have combined with their team-mates to devastating effect during the knockouts, with Porto notching up a breathtaking 22 goals in just 8 matches since cruising to top spot in Group L.

So you can see the problem facing Braga, who have proven on numerous occasions in Europe this season that they can nullify some of the continents finest attacking talents. However, goals have been hard to come by, with a strong reliance on set-pieces and snappy counter-attacks. Although their tactics has worked wonders up till now, they won’t have faced a more formidable forward set-up all season nor a team with more enthusiasm to bomb forward than FC Porto. Having said that, I tell a lie. These two did meet on two separate occasions in the league this season, though somewhat predictably Porto, who went the entire domestic campaign without losing, won both encounters, by an aggregate of 5-2.

Wednesday represents a big ask for Braga, who have never contested a match of more importance in their 96-year existence. The same certainly doesn’t apply to Porto. Just another day at the office for the most successful club in Portugal. They’ve been there, done that and I fully expect them to come away with the trophy – and they’ll have deserved it too, as no team has provided the neutrals with more entertainment this season than Andre Villas Boas’ side.

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Form

FC Porto – WWLDW (Porto 5-1 Villarreal, Vitoria Setubal 0-4 Porto, Villarreal 3-2 Porto, Porto 3-3 Pacos de Ferreira, Martimo 0-2 Porto)

Braga – LDWDL (Benfica 2-1 Braga, Braga 0-0 Unaio de Leira, Braga 1-0 Benfica, Academica 0-0 Braga, Braga 0-1 Sporting Lisbon)

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Road to Dublin

FC Porto

Group Stage – The newly crowned Portuguese champions powered through their group, Group L, containing Besiktas, CSKA Sofia and Rapid Vienna, recording five victories and only one draw. Turkish side Besiktas were the only team to take a point off of ‘The Dragons’ during this phase of the tournament.

Knockouts – Unstoppable. Apart from a nervy affair with Spanish side Sevilla in the Round of 32 where Porto edge through courtesy of away goals, the Portuguese outfit were dominant. Racking up 22 goals and conceding 10 in return, it was clear for all to see who provided the entertainment around these parts as Porto made relatively light work of Sevilla (Agg: 2-2), CSKA Moscow (Agg: 3-1), Spartak Moscow (Agg: 10-3) and Villarreal (Agg: 7-4).

Braga

Group Stage – Last season’s Portuguese runners-up began life in 2010/2011 in the Champions League, mixing it in a very competitive Group H alongside Arsenal, Partizan Belgrade and Shakhtar Donetsk. Unfortunately, despite beating Arsenal 2-0 at home, Braga crashed out after finishing three-points behind the Gunners. Their consolation, though, was third-place and a spot in the knockouts of the Europa League, which they would later go on to take full advantage of.

Knockouts – Clinical could be about the only word to describe a very organised Braga during the knockouts, edging past all four of their rivals in the second half of the tournament. First up was Polish side Lech Poznan, whom they actually lost to in Poland 1-0 only to run out predictable 2-0 winners back at home to clinch the tie 2-1. Then came arguably their finest hour, or 180 minutes in this instance, as the Arsenalistas beat former favourites Liverpool 1-0 on aggregate before going on to beat Dynamo Kiev, Manchester City’s conquerors, on away goals and then compatriots Benfica in the semi-final, once again via away goals.

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Streaks & Trends

Over the years, these two have contested 131 matches with Porto dominating the head-to-head with 92 wins to Braga‘s rather miserly sum of 17.

Braga have won only one of the last nine meetings, Porto winning seven of those including a league double this season.

Porto have lost just one of their last seventeen matches in all competitions, a 3-2 defeat away to Villarreal during their semi-final encounter, which they won 7-4 on aggregate courtesy of a 5-1 romp in Portugal.

Incidentally, 15 of those 17 games mentioned above ended up as victories for FC Porto, who at one stage had won fourteen on the spin.

Braga have won only one of their last seven games in all competitions, scoring just three goals in that time.

Porto notched up 22 goals during the knockout phase, Braga just 6.

Radamel Falcao has netted no fewer than 16 times in this competition, five more than Villarreal’s Giuseppe Rossi meaning he’s certain to end the tournament as top goalscorer.

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Match Prediction: FC Porto to WIN – 1.50 WilliamHill

It’s unquestionably the biggest game of football in the club’s 96-year history but I’m struggling, like most, to find a case for the underdogs.

Incredibly well organised they are but you get the impression that Porto will score at least once on the night, if not a couple, yet I cannot count on Braga doing the same. They’ll pose a threat on the counter and can be dangerous from set-pieces but they spend far too long for my liking defending their own 18-yard box and eventually something has to give against the forward prowess of Porto. The vision and craft of midfield duo Joao Moutinho and Fredy Guarin will compliment the explosive talents of Hulk and Falcao and I strongly believe ‘The Dragons’ will be far too strong in the final third.

It could be a different ball game altogether should Braga take the lead, as then they really would have something worthwhile defending. Therefore, I feel the first goal is pivotal.

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Value Bets

Falcao; First Goalscorer @ 5.50 (9/2) PaddyPower

Powerful in the air but equally adept on the deck as well, Falcao really is a defender’s worst nightmare especially in this vein of form. The Colombian powerhouse has bagged 16 goals in this very competition already, 38 in 42 appearances in all competitions this season. Formidable stuff from a striker who has everything in his locker.

Braga to WIN to NIL @ 13.00 PaddyPower

During their eight knockout encounters with Lech Poznan, Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica, Braga conceded just four goals and kept five clean sheets. If they are to defy the odds stacked against them then they do somehow have to stop Porto’s formidable front-line.

FC Porto to WIN 2-1 (Correct Score) @ 9.00 bWin

2 was Porto’s most common amount of goals scored during the knockouts, scoring precisely two goals on three occasions. Meanwhile, Braga notched up exactly 1 goal on four separate occasions. Plus, Braga’s organised set-up should make for a an evenly-fought contest in Dublin.

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Match Odds (excluding extra-time & penalties)

FC Porto – 1.50 WilliamHill
Draw – 4.50 VictorChandler
Braga – 8.00 BetFred

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Method of Victory Odds

FC Porto in Extra-Time – 12.00 bWin
FC Porto on Penalties – 17.00 Bet365

Braga in Extra-Time – 23.00 BetFred
Braga on Penalties – 19.00 Bet365

Villarreal V FC Porto (AGG: 1-5)

Date & Kick-Off: Thursday, 5 May 2011 – 20:05 (GMT)
Venue: El Madrigal
TV Coverage: ITV4

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Preview

The newly crowned champions of Portugal have been in scintillating form for some time now, dare we even say they’ve been unstoppable. None of their last fourteen opponents have managed to even take a single point from them, yet Villarreal are expected to rout them by a clear four-goal margin if they’re to spring one of the biggest surprises in continental competition history, by qualifying for this month’s final at Dublin on 18 May.

Quite how either side have gotten to this stage of the tie in such contrasting positions takes some believing, as Villarreal were 1-0 up, courtesy of Cani’s strike near the end of the opening period, and delighted with how things were going at half-time in the opening leg. Then, Porto showed everyone why they were not only champions of Portugal but odds-on favourites to add a European title to their domestic honours, as they would storm back in the second half to score five times leaving their opponents well and truly floored.

Almost everyone is now accustomed to the fact that Dublin will be graced by an all-Portuguese final, with FC Porto set to meet one of either Benfica or Braga, the former currently leading the aggregate score in that tie 2-1, later this month, after the Dragons pulverised Villarreal in the first leg at El Dragao.

The prolific Falcao was on target no less than four times for Porto in the opening leg in Portugal, the Colombian taking his tally in the competition to 15 and will now, barring miracles, end the tournament as the leading scorer. He went into the game just one ahead of Giuseppe Rossi who is, however, value to score (2.38 BetFred) on Thursday seeing as he’s not just a tidy finisher but also a clinical and precise spot-kick taker.

However, it is almost impossible to see any way back for Villarreal from this position, the Yellow Submarine simply overwhelmed by a superior outfit in the first leg. The Portuguese champions are a formidable outfit, intimidating in stature and size but also shockingly quick on the deck and ruthless in front of goal – the sort of useful ingredients which should see them blast their way to a first UEFA Europa League title (1.50 888Sport).

That said, Villarreal are an impressive outfit at their El Madrigal stadium, where they’ve been beaten just twice in all competitions this season, and interestingly where they spanked FC Twente 5-1 in the previous round of knockouts. The exact same scoreline (126.00 VictorChandler), as improbable as it would seem, would be quite spectacular and would reward us all with another 30 minutes of extra-time and possibly even penalties.

For those with an optimistic attitude, Villarreal are readily available at 41.00 to qualify for the final with Totesport.

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Form & Last Result

Villarreal – WWLLW (FC Twente 1-3 Villarreal, Villarreal 1-0 Real Zaragoza, Sevilla 3-2 Villarreal, FC Porto 5-0 Villarreal, Villarreal 2-1 Getafe)

The Yellow Submarine haven’t been entirely convincing in the latter part of the season, however Villarreal have only lost two of twenty-eight at home this season and have won all seven at home in this season’s UEFA Europa League.

On Saturday, though, they were made to sweat before securing all three points at El Madrigal in a match with Getafe, falling behind late on in the first period before goals from Cani and Rossi helped Villarreal storm back and consolidate fourth in La Liga.

FC Porto – WWWWW (Spartak Moscow 2-5 FC Porto, FC Porto 3-2 Sporting Lisbon, Benfica 1-3 FC Porto, FC Porto 5-1 Villarreal, Vitoria Setubal 0-4 FC Porto)

The ‘Dragons’ clinched the Portuguese league a while ago now but that hasn’t stopped them from embarking on yet another remarkable run of form, with their 4-0 whitewash of Vitoria Setubal at the weekend their fourteenth consecutive win in all competitions. Furthermore, they’ve now scored 28 goals in just their last seven games; an average of four-goals-per-game.

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Match Prediction: FC Porto to WIN – 2.80 Totesport

In the form they are in, having won their last fourteen matches on the spin, it’s difficult to oppose Porto. However, there are few venues in Spain which boast a more formidable reputation than El Madrigal, which is where Villarreal win the vast majority of their matches.

The fact of the matter is, Villarreal will need to do something special on the night if they’re to even get close to levelling the tie, but they’ll need to commit more men forward than usual and that leaves them heavily exposed against a Porto side who carve out chances with consummate ease yet invariably put the majority of them away with aplomb.

Falcao and Hulk can be a real handful at the best of times but if there’s pockets of space for them to run into, which I believe there will be at some point or another, considering Villarreal’s predicament of requiring a bare minimum of four goals, then they could wreak havoc once again.

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Value Bets

Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.62 WilliamHill

Trailing the tie by four-goal, Villarreal desperately need goals! Unfortunately, their opponents are prolific in front of goal – Porto averaging four-goals-per-game in their last seven matches – and if the home side do commit too many men forward to attack than I fully expect the visitors to take full advantage.

Guiseppe Rossi to Score @ 2.38 BetFred

13 of his 18 strikes in La Liga this season have come at El Madrigal, where six of his ten goals in Europe this season were scored. With Nilmar back as well, Rossi should find himself on the receiving end of more goalscoring opportunities in the second leg.

Falcao to Score @ 2.38 StanJames

He’s been sensational in Europe this season, scoring 15 in just 12 appearances, and it goes without saying that the Porto forward is definite value to score, something he has found a walk in the park in the first leg.

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Match Odds

Villarreal – 2.50 Bet365
Draw – 3.75 VictorChandler
FC Porto – 2.80 Totesport

FC Porto V Spartak Moscow

Date & Kick-Off: Thursday, 7 April 2011 – 20:05 (GMT)
Venue: Estadio do Dragao; Porto, Portugal
TV Coverage: ITV4

Tournament favourites FC Porto will fancy their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals after yet again being drawn alongside Russian opponents, with Spartak Moscow all that stands between the newly crowned Portuguese champions and a semi-final date with either Villarreal of Spain or FC Twente of Holland.

Porto have won all six of their previous European affairs with teams originating from Russia, incidentally all six victories coming over CSKA Moscow, whom they beat in the Round of 16 3-1 on aggregate en route to booking another tie with Russian foes. However Spartak, who dropped down from the Champions League after finishing third in Group F behind Chelsea and Marseille, should hand Andre Vilas Boas’ side a sterner test over two legs.

Spartak thrashed Ajax in their Round of 16 tie 4-0 and have lost only one of five away contests in Europe this season, when going down 4-1 at Stamford Bridge to Chelsea. Moreover, since dropping down from the Champions League, the Russian side have also won both away clashes in their Round of 32 and 16 ties. So they certainly bring with them the right credentials to challenge the competition favourites for a spot in the last-4.

However, Porto will take some budging. Not only will spirits be high in the dressing room – the Dragons having recently claimed back their Portuguese title from Benfica with plenty of games to spare – the 2002/03 UEFA Cup winners have only lost once at home in Europe this season, that a 1-0 reverse in the second leg of their Round of 32 tie with Sevilla – a loss which had no impact, in the end, on who prevailed from a tasty tie – and are the second most prolific team left in the tournament.

Powerful yet technically very sound, one way of describing a team many believe will be crowned Europa League champions in Dublin next month. One player in particular who is a real handful is Colombian forward Falcao, who really is a powerhouse of a centre-forward and has only Villarreal’s Giuseppe Rossi ahead of him in the scoring charts, having so far plundered 7 goals in the competition.

Midfielders Joao Moutinho and Fredy Guarin, as well as the sought-after Brazilian Hulk, are just some of the dangerous players at coach Boas’ disposal who are set to put the visitors’ defence under plenty of scrutiny.

Agile and very dangerous on the counter is how I would sum up Spartak’s general style, with Republic of Ireland winger Aidan McGeady troublesome out on the left. However they also have a huge advantage when playing at home in the second-leg, with their artificial surface so often criticised by opposing camps, not to mention the bitterly cold conditions. Their aim in the opening leg will be to contain a very talented Porto front line for as long as possible before hopefully clinching the tie back at home.

Final Verdict: Although Spartak will set themselves up to defend in numbers as they bid to retain a clean sheet for as long as humanely possible, I strongly believe their resistance will be broken at one point or another by a powerful yet persistent Porto attack. Falcao and Hulk are a strike-duo strong and skilful enough to cause any defence in world football problems, so it will take a colossal effort from Spartak in order to nullify one of the most clinical forward set-ups for the full 90 minutes.

In my opinion, it all depends on when Porto make the breakthrough. If it’s early, we could see a flood of goals for the home side as once they get going, they’re so difficult to halt. With that said, the visitors will be dangerous on the break.

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Knock-out Progress:

FC Porto

Round of 32: BEAT Sevilla 2-2 on aggregate via away goals (Home 0-1; Away 1-2)
Round of 16: BEAT CSKA Moscow 3-1 on aggregate (Home 2-1; Away 0-1)

Spartak Moscow

Round of 32: BEAT FC Basel 4-3 on aggregate (Home: 1-1; Away 2-3)
Round of 16: BEAT Ajax 4-0 on aggregate (Home: 3-0; Away 0-1)

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Betting Odds

Win-Draw-Win:

FC Porto – 1.44 StanJames
Draw – 4.75 VictorChandler
Spartak Moscow – 9.00 WilliamHill

To Qualify:

FC Porto – 1.33 PaddyPower
Spartak Moscow – 3.55 bWin

Arsenal V FC Porto

Tuesday, 9^th March – 19:45 GMT

First Leg: FC Porto 2-1 Arsenal

The first leg finished in controversial circumstances as FC Porto clinched a vital home win to boost their Quarter-Final claims. However, their winner, scored by Colombian Falcao, was met by stinging criticism by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger because Falcoa was allowed to stroke the ball home into an empty net after the referee acknowledged Porto’s quickly taken free-kick. While the entire Arsenal squad were left feeling aggrieved, they only had themselves to blame after gifting the Portuguese side both of their goals, with Porto’s first coming by virtue of a goalkeeping howler from Lukasz Fabianski, while their second, that of Falcao’s, was made possible after Sol Campbell’s intended back pass for Fabianski in the Arsenal goal was picked up.

The first leg was a catalogue of errors for the Gunners as their mistakes proved costly. However, there was one positive to take from the game and that was Sol Campbell’s 18^th minute header. His first goal for the club since re-joining the Gunners in January ensured Arsenal at least left Porto with a vital away goal, a goal which leaves this tie firmly hanging by a knife edge. However, Arsenal are still favoured by the bookmakers to see off their Portuguese opponents, with Arsenal a general best priced 1.67. Porto, however, whom hold all the aces after their 2-1 victory in Portugal, are perhaps more attractive at 2.25 with VCbet, although do they have it in them to record a big result on English soil.

Arsenal

Outright odds: 14/1 Coral

It was a good weekend for the Gunners as preparations for this second clash with Porto went to plan with a routine victory over Burnley last Saturday. Granted the performance of the Arsenal team wasn’t the best, but the three points they earned from that win kept up the pressure on Chelsea & Man Utd, with Arsenal now just two points off the pace currently set by Manchester United and full of confidence after their fourth league win the spin. Arsene Wenger will be hoping that victory over Burnley will be the platform to a successful Tuesday night, but will the Portuguese giants spoil the party of another English side.

While Arsenal remain the favourites to qualify at the expense of Porto (Arsenal to Qualify, 1.62 SkyBet), this Porto side can be dangerous, especially when they are being completely written off. Manchester United found out the hard way when they when they fell behind to the then champions of Portugal before eventually finishing with an unsatisfactory 2-2 draw. Should the same result occur at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal would be packing their Champions League bags, so it’s imperative the Gunners don not underestimate their Tuesday night opponents. 

Arsene Wenger was dealt a huge blow though, arguably the biggest he could of ever of imagined before such an important encounter, in that Cesc Fabregas is a major doubt after picking up a hamstring injury during Arsenal 3-1 win at home to Burnley on Saturday. Fabregas, whom opened the scoring for Arsenal at the weekend, is the puppet master in the heart of the Arsenal midfield, pulling all the strings of his fellow midfielders and forward team-mates. His deft little touches, his vision on the ball, his quick interchanges with those around him, all of which Arsenal will sorely miss should he not be fit in time for this clash. Were this nightmare to become a reality then Arsene Wenger will be short of some creative spark in the centre-of-midfield, while the danger runs and clinical finishing from the Spaniard are also fine attributes that Arsenal will have to cope without.

The plus point for you Gunners is playing at the Emirates, a stadium where Arsenal have been notoriously strong at this season with only Man Utd & Chelsea beating Arsenal there in all competitions. Even without Fabregas, Arsenal should still find some sort of attacking rhythm. This should especially be the case after watching Arsenal plug on without their talismanic midfielder in the second half of their weekend game with Burnley, with the Gunners creating more than half-a-dozen clear cut chances in the second half alone. Our only reservation is should Arsenal go a good 45 minutes and then some without a goal that would level the tie on aggregate, do they have an individual willing to step up and become a hero, a role Fabregas would duly fill. We aren’t so sure they do so a strong start is crucial if Arsenal want to switch the pressure back onto their Portuguese opponents and restore the parity lost from the first-leg.

FC Porto

Outright odds: 66/1 PaddyPower

Unlike their English opponents, FC Porto’s weekend didn’t exactly go to plan as they could only warm up for this hotly anticipated last-sixteen clash with a draw back in Liga Sagres in Portugal. Porto, whom were a general 1/5 to win on Saturday night, drew Olhanense, a team second from bottom in the Portuguese SuperLiga. That draw was important as it mean Porto haven’t won a competitive fixture since their victory over Arsenal in the first-leg, which begs the question; are Porto consistent enough in their performances to produce a display worthy of taking them through to the quarter-final stage of the competition?

We would have to say no, with this especially being so after taking a look at Porto’s away fortunes back in their own respective domestic league; PLD: 10, W: 4. Not only that but their previous visit to the Emirates Stadium didn’t exactly go to plan, or well for that matter, with Porto being on the receiving end of a 4-0 whitewash when the two teams met in the group stages of last season. However, Arsenal’s goalscorers that day are either unavailable or no longer at the club, and what with Fabregas, Arsenal’s most influential player being missing, perhaps the Gunners are low on ammunition as Porto head back for another bite at the Arsenal cherry.

Porto rode their luck in the first leg but reaped the rewards as a direct result. Their 2-1 first-leg leaves the tie wide open with both sides boasting serious claims for progression. However, the dangerous factor as far as Porto are concerned is the away goal Arsenal scored, so while Porto do hold the one goal ace card over the Gunners, Porto would need a goal of their own to really pile the pressure on Arsenal. An away goal for Porto isn’t out of the question though considering they put two past Manchester United in the very same stage of last seasons competition. They would, however, need a performance similar to that at Old Trafford a year ago, with some quick breakaways and some clinical finishing. Porto were a menace at Old Trafford that night, bombing forward with electric pace and with plenty of support, and should they deploy similar tactics at the Emirates on Tuesday night then perhaps a shock could be on the cards.

Our Verdict: Draw – 4.00 bWin

Porto are one of those teams which you love to draw, but then know you must attain a positive result in the away leg to leave yourself in the driving seat. While Arsenal do have that away goal, the one goal deficit does leave them extremely vulnerable as the omen is on them to ask all the questions and to commit men forward to attack in order to level the tie. That doesn’t sound at all good for us as Porto are one of the masters at breaking out from defence at an alarming rate, aided by plenty of forward support. Moreover, This Arsenal defence has been found wanting when backtracking against the very best in England on more than one occasions in the past month or two, which has got us thinking that perhaps Porto are the team to side with, at least as far as qualifying goes. One goal from them would leave Arsenal needing at least two goals just to take this tie into extra-time and we wouldn’t put it past the Portuguese champions scoring at the Emirates.

Interesting Fact: In nine previous attempts to reverse a first-leg deficit, Arsenal have only been successful on one occasion.

Match Odds:

Arsenal – 1.62 SkyBet

Draw – 4.00 bWin

FC Porto – 6.50 Bet365

UEFA Champions League – Round of 16

FC Porto V Arsenal

Wednesday, 17^th February – 19:45 GMT (ITV1)

FC Porto

Match Odds: 2.70 PaddyPower

Recommended Bet: HULK FGS – 7/1 BetFred

FC Porto, thee giant of Portugal football, will go up against yet another English opponent, this time in the knock-out stages when they take on Arsenal, with the first leg this time in Portugal. Last season, after a memorable draw in Manchester, Porto exited the competition at the quarter-final stage after a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester United, the eventual losing finalists. Porto crumbled under the expectant pressure from their home fans on that occasion and will be hoping to avoid a case of deja vu when Arsenal pay them a visit on Wednesday night.

Portuguese sides have always been feared for their skills on the ball, their quick feet and their obsession with diving. The latter proving that even the prettier of teams on the eye can still be rather unattractive. However, the one thing that has been disappointing about Portuguese sides in recent years is that they generally disappoint in the Champions League, with Sporting Lisbon and Benfica failing in their bids to make any real impact on Europe. However, Porto are an exemption to the rule as they’ve been one of the most consistent teams in Europe for many a season and only need to search back to 2004 for their last Champions League success when they won the competition under a well know Jose Mourinho. Since, though, many big names have left for pastures new, but this new crop of theirs, one which gave United a right going over last season, is bred for success and Arsenal will need to be wary of the potential threat Porto boast. 

Porto’s best trait is undoubtedly their attacking ability,but even their best attribute can let them down on occasions. Their worst trait coincides with this in that Porto are extremely inconsistent and proved this last season when they drew 2-2 at Man Utd, cauing United all sorts of problems in defence and deservedly scoring twice, only to lose 1-0 in Porto after an abysmal showing from the home side, rarely troubling Van der Saar in the United goal. However, that is the main problem with Porto in that they generally don’t come out to play when the pressure is firmly on them. They are one of those typical sides that thrive off being the underdogs, it was the main reason why the won the competition nearly six years ago, and, with many touting Arsenal as the firm favourites to progress, perhaps it’s time for another Porto surprise as tails back in Portugal begin to wag…

It is worth pointing out that Porto did suffer a setback at the weekend when they drew 0-0 at Leixoes. That draw has been one of a number of disappointing results in the league for Porto this season and they’ve now fallen nine points off the pace of Benfica at the top of the table. Their sluggish league campaign is an unwanted distraction ahead of their Champions League clash with Arsenal, but, on the same token, bare in mind that Porto have lost just once at home this season in all competitions, with that solitary defeat coming against Chelsea in the group stage. They’ve not lost in ten games back in Portugal, whilst they’ve won their last two Champions League fixtures after victories over APOEL & Athletico Madrid in the Group- While their form isn’t perfect, it’s certainly still very strong.

Arsenal

Match Odds: 2.88 SkyBet

Recommend Bet: Cesc Fabregas FGS – 10/1 totesport 

Arsene Wenger was both delighted and optimistic ahead of his sides clash with the Portuguese champions. The Gunners were beginning to fall off the wagon before a morale, and league, saving win over Liverpool at The Emirates a week to the day ago. It put an end to Arsenal’s run of back-to-back defeats in the league and they can now head over to Portugal with new found belief that all is not lost as they aim to start the knock-out with a win in a bid to surpass their previous best in Europe, which was a final appearance back in 2006.

Arsene Wenger was over the moon with Arsenal’s display in their last outing, a 1-0 victory at home to a resurgent Liverpool. However, while the result was great, as it did end a dire run of two straight defeats to their closest title rivals, it was against a very poor Liverpool side on the night, while Arsenal themselves weren’t exactly a picture of perfection. However, the big positive was that Arsenal won a scrappy affair, a game which didn’t require glamorous football but more along the lines of fight and spirit and Arsenal showed a great deal of both. Diaby scored Arsenal’s winner with a late header and a similar result, aided by the same scorer, wouldn’t go a miss for Arsene Wenger on Wednesday night on what is expected to be a tough night in Porto for his players.

The small niggle of concern for us is that everyone is rampantly talking up Arsenal’s chances of bypassing Porto in the last sixteen, with many claiming this will be an easier two-legged affair. Arsenal rarely do easy, especially in Europe, and I can remember an occasion with PSV when Arsenal were heavily fancied to do the business and were beaten by an Alex header in Holland. Now, we rate Porto on par with the PSV of 2006-2007, and so, Arsenal will need to keep their wits about them and avoid any such arrogance or complacency if they are to see of their Portuguese opponents in a professional manner.

The omens also aren’t the best for Wenger and his side as they lost on their last visit to the Estadio do Dragao stadium in last seasons group stage of the competition, losing 2-0. Moreover, while both Man Utd & Chelsea have beaten Porto recently, before those two defeats Porto were unbeaten in eleven against English opponents, with Portugal somewhat of a graveyard for English sides in the past. The Gunners did manage a goalless draw back in 2006 though, a result which would be welcomed by manager Arsene Wenger we would feel as while Arsenal boast far more quality in depth, Porto have generally been a tough nut to crack in Europe.

Match Verdict: Draw – 3.25 Bet365

If Arsenal apply themselves in the right manner, playing in their usual free-flowing manner then they should get at least a draw in Portugal. However, if they simply turn up and think Porto will roll over then Arsenal will get punished. Porto are very dangerous in attack, with some silky individuals who can leave a defender for dead whilst slamming home the finish. While Arsenal are the worthy favourites and should go through, Porto are no mugs and we expect the Portuguese side, the only one left in the competition, to push Arsenal, especially in Portugal, and so it’s crucial Arsenal’s big players turn up and play their A-Game in a bid to at least match Porto’s goalscoring efforts. An away goal would be ideal for Arsene Wenger and Arsenal, but we feel this could petter out into a goalless draw, one which neither would begrudge in fairness.

Match Odds:

FC Porto – 2.70 PaddyPower

Draw – 3.25 Bet365

Arsenal – 2.88 SkyBet

To Qualify:

FC Porto – 3.00 Bet365

Arsenal – 1.40 PaddyPower

SoccerBetting Value Tip: 0-0 Correct Score – 8.50 SkyBet

FC Porto V Chelsea

Wednesday 25^th November – 19:45 GMT

Group D

FC Porto

Group D Position: 1^st

Group D Form: WWWD

This is something of a nothing fixture for both sides as both are through, although, there is still the small matter of deciding who finishes top of the Group. Whoever does finish on top should, although it doesn’t always pan out like it, have the easier draw of the two when the games are drawn for the last sixteen. To be honest, Chelsea won’t be too bothered if they finish first or second as they have the squad capable of beating absolutely anyone on their day, but Porto aren’t so fortunate as to have such an array of talent at their disposal and could do with progressing as far as they can, and a generous last sixteen draw could help them in their cause.

Athletico Madrid appeared to be Porto’s main rivals for a second place finish but Chelsea made sure that the Madrid side wouldn’t get a sniff. With Porto dropping just three points thus far, that coming in a narrow 1-0 defeat to Chelsea, although it was back in England, Porto comfortably secured second place. However, the side that did them a favour in giving next to nothing away against Athletico Madrid – Chelsea, is now the side that FC Porto must beat in order to seize control of top position, albeit facing a tough trip to Athletico Madrid after.

For all those who can remember, Porto won the competition nearly six years ago, back in the 2003/2004 season. However, they were actually a tidy little force back then but they’ve been clinical at best in this seasons Champions League, with two of their three victories thus far coming by a one goal margin, both actually coming against the worst team in the Group on paper – APOEL. Porto did beat Athletico 2-0, though, in Portugal, and did manage to frustrate Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Match Day 1, losing 1-0, so perhaps they could be another tough nut to crack back at Estadio Dragao, the home of FC Porto.

The danger men will be Falcao, a Colombian striker who scored Porto’s winner on Match Day 3, a goal which sealed their berth into the last sixteen. While Brazilian, Hulk, was the biggest danger back at Stamford Bridge and was a right nuisance when Porto took on Manchester United at Old Trafford last season. He didn’t really show his true potential in the return leg against the Red Devils at Estadio Dragao so he will need to make amends against Chelsea on Wednesday night. Raul Meireles will be Porto’s main source of creativity and he is a player who we would pinpoint as the biggest danger man as most of Porto’s play goes through the Portuguese international.

Chelsea

Group D Position: 1^st

Group D Form: WWWD

Chelsea strolled towards early qualification from what was a tricky looking Group D, but that doesn’t mean Carlo Ancelotti has reverted his attentions back to league action. Chelsea will want to end the Group stages of the competition as Group D’s top dogs and a win in Portugal would ensure they do just that. Up to this point, Chelsea’s only win less game came in Madrid when a late Aguero stunner spoilt Chelsea’s pre-party celebrations. Previously, Chelsea had won all three of their opening fixtures, beating FC Porto (1-0), APOEL (0-1) & smashing Athletico Madrid 4-0 at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have been on the road twice in this seasons Champions League, and both captured Chelsea putting in two unconvincing performances. They had to work hard and convert one of a rare few chances to beat Group D’s basement side – APOEL, while, although they were a lot better in Madrid, Athletico were still the better side throughout most of the game and asked most of the questions. Four points from six is still a fine away tally, it’s better than some English sides we could mention, but there is still room for improvement, and Carlo Ancelotti will be fully aware of this.

Carlo Ancelotti will be well aware that one more win would be enough to nail down 1^st position, and he will also have one eye on Chelsea’s last fixture with APOEL at home, a game which should be a three point banker. However, if he can get the job done earlier then planned then all the merrier and we expect to see a strong Chelsea side on that pitch on Wednesday night, although some will be given a welcomed rest. We would literally be guessing if we were to name players that might not play but Frank Lampard definitely won’t feature, Didier Drogba could also sit this game out as he has struggled with a rib injury lately. Jose Bosingwa has been ruled out for four months, pretty much all season, while Ashley Cole could also be given the week off after he recently made his return to training.

Chelsea boast one of the strongest defensive records in the competition but they go up against a team that have conceded just as little as themselves in Porto. Petr Cech has had his critics this season, most of them deserved, but he has been a consistent performer in the Champions League, conceding just two goals thus far, both of those coming in Madrid in that 2-2 draw. Porto, however, have yet to concede more than 2 goals in any one game this season, so perhaps Chelsea’s usual sharp forward line could actually be tested, for once!

Match Verdict:- Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Chelsea played their first game without influential midfielder and goalscoring machine (A tad melodramatic) in Frank Lampard, at the weekend, and came through unscaved. The Blues’ did win in a comprehensive manner, 4-0, but it was against a poor Wolves side and it will be interesting to see how the likes of Michael Essien, a player who bagged two on Saturday, Deco & possibly Mikel, how they not only control the midfield but also how well they can get forward to help and supply the forwards. We don’t think they will necessarily struggle but they could be short of room, while Porto should be more than comfortable playing at home to enable them to take great strides forward. Porto have players which can strike a ball from anywhere and Cech has already shown his vulnerability from long distance strikes this season. A draw would be a fair result, one that would keep Chelsea in form control of top spot.

Match Odds:

FC Porto – 3.00 Coral

Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Chelsea – 2.50 Boylesports

SoccerBetting Value Bet: 0-0 Correct Score – 8.50 Bet365

Chelsea V FC Porto

Kick-Off: Tuesday 15^th September – 19:45 GMT

Venue: Stamford Bridge (England)

Chelsea will be aiming to go one better than their 2007/2008 Champions League final heartbreak when they kick their Champions League campaign off with a home tie with Portuguese champions FC Porto. The Portuguese giants do have a fairly recent Champions League success to boast about when they won the crown back in 2004. Will either secure the title this season, well, in order to do so they must attain the perfect start with victory in their opening clash.

Respective Form

Chelsea are arguably the inform side in Europe right now after easing to five consecutive wins back in England. Although Chelsea have yet to face a side of any real quality in the Premiership, under Carlo Ancelotti, the ‘Blues’ look a force to be reckoned with and we expect the former AC Milan gaffer to guide Chelsea deep into this season Champions League and possibly end Chelsea’s baron run in this competition.

Chelsea manager; Carlo Ancelotti, main ambitions in the competition this season is to reach the final, and then take it from there. Well, he certainly has a squad capable of reaching such a feat but it’s imperative that he guides Chelsea to their first Champions League victory of the campaign at the first time of asking. He expects the away side to play some very attractive football but he is assured that Chelsea’s resilience will repel all Porto’s efforts to breakthrough what has been a steely Chelsea rearguard this season, with Petr Cech conceding just three goals in five games, with just one of those actually coming at the Bridge.

FC Porto have lost several players over the summer which, in turn, has made their squad a lot weaker than any Porto side that has gone before. However, they do still represent some stiff opposition for the London outfit and they will be eager to spring a shock at Stamford Bridge and amend their 2-1 defeat back in 2006/2007 which, evidentially, seen Porto knocked out of the competition.

Porto manager; Jesualdo Ferreira, has now fresh injuries to contend with ahead of this tricky trip away in England. His teams arrives in London with plenty of form as well, after winning their previous three league fixtures after enduring an early setback in their opening game of the season in Portugal, drawing 1-1 with Ferreira, the managers namesake. FC Porto have cruised to three consecutive victories in the league, scoring ten goals and conceding just the two in that run.

Absentee’s & Suspensions

Carlo Ancelotti will probably field an unchanged side to the one that scraped past an awkward Stoke City at the weekend. However, Deco, a former Porto employee, will not feature as he’s suffering with a calf injury while Yuri Zhirkov is still out & Joe Cole aren’t ready to make their return to the fold just yet as they’re still recovering from knee problems. Centre-backs; Paulo Ferreira & Alex will also be unavailable.

However, that’s just a brief list of the absentee’s for Chelsea. Both Jose Boswinga & Didier Drogba will miss Chelsea Champions League opener with FC Porto through suspension. Drogba’s outburst in Chelsea’s defeat to Barcelona last season has earnt him a three match ban and he will miss Chelsea first three Group D fixtures. With that said, Nicolas Anelka will deputise in a lone striker role although Daniel Sturridge, a young Englishman with plenty of raw potential, could feature at some point depending on how well Chelsea are performing.

FC Porto have no injuries or suspensions so manager, Jesualdo Ferreira, will have a full strength squad to choose from for tonight’s crucial game away at Chelsea.

Betting Market

Despite Chelsea’s long list of absentee’s, Carlo Ancelotti’s side are still a short priced favourite to get their Champions League campaign off to the perfect start. They are a best priced 2/5 with VictorChandler, while FC Porto can be had at a huge price of 9/1 with a whole host of firms, including; Ladbrokes, BetFred & Coral. If you think this will be a tight affair, that does look unlikely, then the draw can be found at 18/5 with Bet365.

Betting Odds:

Chelsea – 2/5 VictorChandler

FC Porto – 9/1 BetFred

Draw – 18/5 Bet365

SoccerBetting Tip: Chelsea to WIN – 2/5 VictorChandler