FA Cup

Arsenal V Aston Villa

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 29 January 2012 – 16:00 GMT

Venue: Emirates Stadium

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

The final FA Cup Fourth-Round tie of the weekend is an all Premiership affair as Aston Villa, buoyed by their 3-2 victory over local rivals Wolves, head to north London to tackle an out of form Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium – where the Villains recorded a 2-1 win on their last visit, on the final day of last season. You’ll get handsome odds on a repeat, mind.

Only eleven-time winners Manchester United have lifted the FA Cup more times than Arsenal (10), whose most recent triumph in this competition was in 2005 when they beat the aforementioned on penalties at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium. They’re 15/2 third-favourites to claim their eleventh honour, which looks a precarious bet considering they are by no means guaranteed to be in Sunday’s Fifth-Round draw.

You’d think a home draw would be beneficial. It should; the Gunners have only lost three times at their swanky Emirates home all season (W13 D3 L3 in all competitions) – though their most recent occurred just seven days ago, to Manchester United, and it was preceded by league defeats away to Fulham and Swansea, which came either side of a nervy and unconvincing performance against Leeds in the third round. They prevailed, of course, otherwise we wouldn’t be talking about them now.

It was fans favourite and club legend Thierry Henry who sparred Arsenal’s blushes in the previous round, coming off the bench to score the only goal of the game on his return following the completion of his loan deal from MLS club New York Red Bulls. The Frenchman is however doubtful for Sunday meaning Arsene Wenger has little choice but to start Robin Van Persie, the prolific but injury prone Dutchman who has been rapped up in cotton wool on occasions this season.

Being without Thierry Henry is the least of Arsene Wenger’s problems. Once again the Gunners tactician will be shorn of key players – in defence especially – with Kieran Gibbs, Andre Santos, Carl Jenkinson, Jack Wilshere, Abou Diaby, Gervinho and Marouane Chamakh all unavailable. There is some good news, though – Mikel Arteta should return to partner Alex Song and Aaron Ramsey in midfield while there may even be a place on the bench for Bacary Sagna, the full-back who has spent the past three months recovering from a broken ankle.

Once again Arsene Wenger may have to select four central defenders in defence, meaning there will be two makeshift full-backs on the pitch. That could be a crucial factor in determining who progresses, as Villa do boast ample pace on the flanks. Charles N’Zogbia has been ruled out but Gabriel Agbonlahor is available and he along with Marc Albrighton will look to terrorise this unconvincing Gunners rearguard that has shipped seven goals in its last three Premier League games.

Up front for the visitors meanwhile will be the resurgent pairing of Darren Bent and Robbie Keane, with the pair accounting for all three of the team’s goals in last week’s 3-2 win at Midlands rivals Wolves. Keane, on loan from MLS side LA Galaxy, bagged in a brace in that game. However all eyes will be on Darren Bent on Sunday, as it was his brace in last season’s corresponding fixture which earned Villa a shock 2-1 victory at the Emirates.

Match Pointers

- In order to get this far, Arsenal had to overcome Leeds at home (1-0) while Aston Villa faced opposition from League Two in Bristol Rovers (1-3).

- Arsenal were 2-1 victors when the two sides met at Villa Park in the Premier League in December, reversing Villa’s 2-1 victory at the Emirates on the final day of last season.

- Aston Villa have succumbed to defeat on just one of their previous five visits to North London to face Arsenal (W2 D2 L1 – Villa’s last five at Arsenal).

- Arsenal have now lost three league games on the spin following last week’s 2-1 home reverse to Manchester United, conceding seven times during this retched run.

- Alex McLeish’s Villa have incurred more defeats at home than they have on their travels in this season’s Premier League (Villa’s Away Record in PL: W3 D6 L2) – they’re also unbeaten in their last five away matches versus top flight opposition (W3 D2).

Betting

Arsenal’s reputation in the FA Cup has clearly gone before them, as no way are they 4/7 favourites here. They host this tie on the back of three successive league defeats, their record against Aston Villa is hardly a source of encouragement – they’ve only beat them once in their previous five meetings in north London, losing twice – while they’re still missing a host of key players, particularly in defence, where they are especially vulnerable having shipped seven in their previous three matches against Premier League opposition.

It’s alright pointing out the obvious, that Arsenal are once again understrength – as they’ve been for most of the season, but you can only oppose them with the right opponent. To their credit, they have coped admirably; they sit 5TH and are firmly in contention for a top-four finish, but they’re up against a team in Villa whose pace on the flanks willpose Arsenal’s makeshift full-backs all sorts of questions. Agbonlahor and Albrighton will be a constant threat out wide all afternoon and if they supply good service to the in-form strike duo of Robbie Keane and Darren Bent… you know the rest.

For me, Arsenal are ridiculous odds. As are Aston Villa, who should be a lot shorter than their 5/1 quote. Get on Alex McLeish’s resurgent Villains at staggering odds!

Prediction: Aston Villa to WIN @ 5/1 PaddyPower

Value Bet: Darren Bent to Score @ 9/4 Bet365

Match Odds

Arsenal – 8/13 Ladbrokes

Draw – 16/5 BetVictor

Aston Villa – 5/1 PaddyPower

Sunderland V Middlesbrough

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 29 January 2012 – 13:30 GMT

Venue: Stadium of Light

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

The FA Cup Fourth-Round draw has thrown up a North-East derby with Sunderland and Middlesbrough locking horns for the first time in a little over three years at the Stadium of Light this Sunday. It will be shown live, too, on ESPN.

Sunderland, two-time FA Cup winners in 1937 and 1973, are bidding to reach for the Fifth-Round for the first time since 2004. They’ll do just that with a third successive home win over Middlesbrough, whom have worryingly grown accustom to their Championship surroundings having spent the last two-and-a-half-years down in the second tier following their relegation from the Premier League in 2009.

It goes without saying then that Sunderland are hot favourites – although I expected slimmer odds than those currently on offer. Ladbrokes’ quote of 8/11 seems mighty generous, as while there may only be a few miles separating the two clubs, geographically speaking, in football terms they are poles apart now.

Whereas Middlesbrough are regularly coming a cropper against teams of the ilk of Coventry, who they were comprehensively beaten by last week 3-1, Sunderland have found some stable footing under Northern Irishman Martin O’Neill who has guided the team to six wins in his first nine games in charges, including a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Premier League leaders Man City.

At home, too, Sunderland are especially strong. The Black Cats recorded a somewhat routine-like 2-0 win over Swansea in their most recent contest at the Stadium of Light, which is gradually beginning to fill again in tandem with the team’s revival in form. It’s now three wins from four at home under O’Neill, who remains undefeated as Sunderland manager on home soil and won’t want that impressive streak to end against one the club’s local rivals.

One of the biggest improvements that I have seen in Sunderland since the arrival of Martin O’Neill has been in defence. Steve Bruce made some astute signings in the summer by bringing in the experienced likes of John O’Shea and Wes Brown, and O’Neill is reaping the rewards. They were strong defensively anyway, but even more so now – QPR are the only team during O’Neill’s nine-game tenure to have netted more than once in 90 minutes, with just seven conceded in all.

A strong defence does bode well for the hosts; progress would be a formality, we feel, should Simon Mignolet keep his third successive clean sheet at home, to go with those earned in victories over Man City (1-0) and Swansea, as Middlesbrough are leaking goals at the minute, particularly away from home having shipped exactly three in recent visits to Blackpool (3-0) and Coventry (3-1) since the start of the New Year.

To compound their issues with form and in defence, Middlesbrough are also missing several key players for this fourth-round tie. Both Kevin Thomson and Julio Arca are suspended after seeing red in last week’s loss at Coventry, goalkeeper Jason Steele is rated doubtful while the influential Nicky Bailey remains a long-term absentee.

Meanwhile, Sunderland boss Martin O’Neill has only one fresh piece of team news is contend with, and that’s news of Nicklas Bendtner’s facial injuries, which will keep him sidelined for around a month. But as one enters the treatment room, another leaves with fellow striker Fraizer Campbell now available following a successful recovery from a serious injury.

Match Pointers

- First meeting between the two north-east clubs for three years, since the pair contested a 1-1 Premier League draw in January 2009.

- Middlesbrough have lost on each of their last two visits to Sunderland, this after winning three on the spin between 2002-2006.

- Sunderland defeated Peterborough 2-0 away from home in the last round while Middlesbrough edged out Shrewsbury 1-0 at home.

- Martin O’Neill has won six and lost two of his nine games in charge of Sunderland since 11 December (W6 D1 L2).

- The Black Cats have lost only once in their last nine matches at the Stadium of Light (W4 D4 L1), and are currently unbeaten in four there.

- Middlesbrough have lost three of their last four matches, with their only success during this dismal run being a 1-0 FA Cup third round victory at home to League Two Shrewsbury.

- Tony Mowbray’s Middlesbrough have won only three of their previous ten away matches, losing five and conceding three in each of their last two (W3 D2 L5).

Betting

I really cannot see past a Sunderland victory here. I’ve said it countless times recently, but Martin O’Neill has his Black Cats purring. Six wins from his nine games in charge is a remarkable achievement when you consider his predecessor only managed two in his last fourteen at the helm. Sunderland have been especially awesome at home, where last week they comfortably beat Swansea 2-0. It was also where they inflicted a rare loss on Manchester City on New Year’s Day.

On just a handful of occasions has Sunderland’s defence been breached during Martin O’Neill’s tenure. Now Middlesbrough are certainly capable of firing past Belgian shot-stopper Simon Mignolet, even if they are far from the most prolific team in the Championship, but defensively they’re a mess and on the back of successive heavy away defeats, to Blackpool (3-0) and Coventry (3-1), I can see Sunderland enjoying a lot more success in the final third than Tony Mowbray’s out of sorts Boro.

Prediction: Sunderland to WIN @ 8/11 Ladbrokes

Value Bet: Sunderland to WIN 3-1 @ 14/1 WilliamHill

Match Odds

Sunderland – 8/11 Ladbrokes

Draw – 14/5 BetVictor

Middlesbrough – 5/1 ToteSport

Liverpool V Manchester United

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 28 January 2012 – 12:45 GMT

Venue: Anfield

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

Three months on from their highly-charged and ultimately controversial Premier League encounter at Anfield, age-old rivals Liverpool and Manchester United prepare to do battle all over again only this time a place in the fifth round of the FA Cup is at stake. Fortunately for us, it is live on ITV1 from midday Saturday.

Meetings between these two are always feisty affairs, more so at Anfield where four red cards have been produced in the last six encounters there. However, not one was produced in their league meeting back in October – or so it seemed. Allegations were made after the game that Liverpool striker Luis Suarez racially abused United full-back Patrice Evra, a charge he was later convicted of by the FA and subsequently handed an eight-game suspension.

As a result of the Suarez-Evra incident, relations between the two clubs – particularly the two sets of supporters – is fractious, so we can expect a hostile atmosphere at the game, as is the norm whenever these two footballing juggernauts collide. One suspects a certain Patrice Evra, who was recently made United skipper in the absence of Nemanja Vidic, is in for a hot reception too.

Pair inspired by recent victories over Manchester City

There is a lot these two clubs have in common. Like the fact they’ve both won countless honours, including this very competition eighteen times between them. They also boast recent triumphs over the current leaders of the Barclay’s Premier League, which both will feel should stand them in good stead for Saturday’s dinner-time tussle.

Manchester City have been the team to beat this season, with the Citizens having set an unrelenting pace at the Premier League summit early on. So anybody who manages to get the better of them deserves to go up in anyone estimations.

United will fear nobody in this competition, not after going to the Etihad Stadium in the third round and dumping their City rivals out at the very first hurdle with a 3-2 victory. They have since gone on to record back-to-back league wins, the most recent a gutsy 2-1 win at Arsenal, thus perhaps proving that their win over Roberto Mancini’s men could very well be the catalyst for a typically strong second half of the season for Sir Alex Ferguson & Co.

However, Liverpool inflicted defeat on Man City as recently as Wednesday, with their 2-2 draw at Anfield – coming from behind twice – enough to secure them a 3-2 aggregate victory in the semi-final of the Carling Cup, having also gone to the Etihad Stadium and won two weeks earlier. Now the Reds can look forward to their first appearance at the new Wembley, as well as the very real prospect of silverware, with the Reds set to take on Cardiff of the Championship on February 26 in the final.

Liverpool toothless at home, whereas United are formidable wherever

Morale will be at an all-time high following on from their success in the Carling Cup, but whether a lift in spirit is enough to lift their overall level of performance at home really does remain to be seen. To be honest, Liverpool haven’t performed too badly at Anfield this season. They have been extraordinarily toothless, though; while they’ve not been beaten on their own patch in 2011-12, they have won just the four times (W4 D8 L0 in all competitions).

As for United, well it doesn’t really matter to them whether they’re at home or on the road; Sir Alex’s side have secured as many wins (8) away from home as they have at Old Trafford in this season’s Premier League. Which highlights one crucial point: Manchester United are a prominent threat wherever they play their football, as their 3-2 scalp of Man City at the Etihad Stadium in the third round of this competition proved.

Match Pointers

- Liverpool were 1-0 winners when they last hosted Manchester United in the FA Cup, with Peter Crouch netting the only goal back in February 2006.

- Manchester United ended a run of three successive defeats away to Liverpool when earning a 1-1 draw in their Premier League visit last October; Javier Hernandez, who has two goals in his two visits to Anfield, cancelling out Steven Gerrard’s opener.

- A 5-1 victory over Oldham at Anfield ensured Liverpool’s passage into the fourth round, while United eliminated City rivals Man City with a 3-2 win at Etihad Stadium.

- Liverpool have yet to lose a game at home this season, but they have drawn an abnormally high amount (W4 D8 L0 in all competitions).

- In the Premier League, United have won as many games away as they have at home (8), with their only defeat on the road being a 3-0 reverse to Newcastle on 4 January.

Betting

As ridiculous as it may sound, this could be the perfect time to go to Anfield – which has hardly been a fortress this season. Everyone involved with Liverpool should be proud of their achievements in the Carling Cup having beaten decent opposition to get to the final, where they now face Cardiff at Wembley. However the final isn’t for another month, so it’s crucial Kenny Dalglish stresses the importance of their upcoming games as progress in the FA Cup and finishing in the top-four in the league are far more important objectives than clinching the League Cup.

Liverpool’s focus and application in the big games cannot be questioned. They’ve gone to both Arsenal and Chelsea and won, should have beaten both Manchester clubs at home, while home and away they were awesome versus Manchester City in the Carling Cup semi-final. But they could be caught out here, mid-celebration if you like, by a red-hot United who were unbelievably good for the first 45 minutes at Man City in the previous round.

The Reds were fortunate they didn’t need to win on Wednesday, as they haven’t done a whole lot of that at home this season. Just two wins in their last eight Premier League home games is abysmal by Liverpool’s own very high standards, as is 14 goals in 11. Had it not been for Craig Bellamy, they would probably would not of prevailed in midweek.

That was the Welshman’s second game in four days and with that in mind, he’s an instant doubt this weekend, which means Dalglish, who is already shorn of star striker Luis Suarez, will have to call upon Andy Carroll. I fail to see how a Liverpool side shorn of Suarez and Bellamy can carve out sufficient openings as to win this game, especially with Carroll up top. So it’s United for me, who cut Arsenal open numerous times at the Emirates last weekend.

Prediction: Manchester United to WIN @ 9/5 WilliamHill

Value Bet: 1-0 Man Utd (Correct Score) @ 9/1 Ladbrokes

Match Odds

Liverpool – 17/10 StanJames

Draw – 23/10 BetVictor

Manchester United – 9/5 WilliamHill

The 2011-12 FA Cup has reached the fourth round stage and while there is a disappointing shortage of lower league clubs left in the tournament, the draw has thrown up some mouthwatering contests to be played from Friday 27 through to Sunday 29 January.

With six all-Premiership ties and not a non-league side in sight, shocks will be few and far between over the course of the round. But the quality of the ties more than makes up for the distinct lack of underdogs, with Liverpool V Manchester United and QPR V Chelsea just some which catch the eye.

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Blackpool V Sheffield Wednesday (15:00 GMT)

Ian Holloway’s Blackpool were eliminated at only the third round stage in last season’s tournament, bowing out to League One opposition in the form of Southampton. They could suffer a similar fate at the hands of Sheffield Wednesday this weekend, who like Southampton are also going well in the third tier and head into the tie full of confidence.

Wednesday sit prominently in fourth in League One, level on points with the automatic promotion places after a comfortable 3-1 success at Scunthorpe on Tuesday. On the back of their midweek triumph, Gary Megson’s side will take a lot of confidence and momentum into Saturday’s Bloomfield Road contest, where a Blackpool team who thumped non-league Fleetwood Town 5-1 in the previous round reside. But if you thought that performance was impressive, how about Wednesday dumping out West Ham United at Hillsborough – the current leaders of Blackpool’s division, the Championship.

Key Stat: Blackpool have lost just twice at home all season, whereas five of Sheff Wed’s six league defeats this term were suffered on the road.

Match Odds: Blackpool 10/11, Draw 13/5, Sheff Wed 10/3 (BetVictor)

Bolton Wanderers V Swansea City

This all-Premier League meeting genuinely could go either way, as the betting suggests. Hosts Bolton are tentative 6/4 favourites, thanks largely to the fact they’re at home and possibly because they comprehensively defeated Liverpool at The Reebok last Saturday. And with one away win all term, I suppose Swansea were always going to be underdogs in this tie.

Bolton were exceptional against Liverpool in their last match, capitalising on what was a lethargic performance from the visitors, who undoubtedly had one eye on their midweek Carling Cup clash with Man City. There is unlikely to be the same complacency from Swansea, though, who sit eight-points clear of the Premier League relegation zone, which is where Bolton have spent most of the campaign thus far, and scored four times at Barnsley in the third round with striker Danny Graham netting three.

The visitors do appeal at 7/4; they retain possession so well and find themselves up against a team who have spent virtually the entire season so far languishing inside the Premier League relegation zone, and whom have the leakiest defence in the top flight.

Key Stat: Bolton have lost 8 of 11 Premier League home games this season, but Swansea have only been victorious on one occasion away from home against top flight opposition (0-2 Aston Villa).

Match Odds: Bolton 6/4, Draw 23/10, Swansea 7/4 (Bet365)

Derby County V Stoke City

Stoke made it all the way to final last season, before eventually losing the show-piece 1-0 to Manchester City. Emulating that successful forage will be a great deal harder second time around, especially if the draw continues to throw up testing assignment like this. A trip to Pride Park will not be straightforward for Tony Pulis & Co.

As you would expect, Stoke are the favourites. I wouldn’t want to be on them though, not at those odds and certainly not on current form. Their 2-1 home defeat to West Brom last time out meant it’s now one win in six Premier League games for the Potters, while they weren’t entirely convincing in despatching of Gillingham in the last round. They are also notoriously poor travellers, despite going three unbeaten away from home – including an impressive 0-0 draw away to Liverpool.

Furthermore, Derby are in splendid form. Rams boss Nigel Clough has witnessed his side go their last six unbeaten in all competitions, a run which did include five consecutive victories before a creditable 0-0 draw away to Burnley last weekend. They’ve also concede just once during this impressive run, winning four by the clinical score of 1-0.

A 1-0 home win has obvious appeal therefore at 9/1 (PaddyPower), especially with Stoke plundering the fewest number of away goals in the top flight this season (just 8 from their 11 outing so far).

Key Stat: Derby are unbeaten in six, winning five, whereas Stoke have mustered two wins from their previous seven (W2 D3 L2).

Match Odds: Derby 5/2, Draw 23/10, Stoke 11/10 (StanJames)

Hull City V Crawley Town

FA Cup romantics simply could not get enough of Crawley last season. Steve Evans’ Red Devils had to negotiate five rounds before finally seeing their efforts rewarded in the form of a fifth round tie with Manchester United, the most successful club in FA Cup history. Their experience of Old Trafford was one everyone involved with the club will savour forever, and was perhaps even the catalyst for a successful promotion push from the Conference National division, which they won at a cantor.

Now, as a member of the Football League, Crawley are bidding to repeat their giant-killing heroics and must overhaul a team who ply their trade two divisions above them if they’re to reach the fifth round for the second consecutive year. Confidence should be fairly high, with the team currently sat second in League Two, and had this been at home they might well of been favourites. But they’re not, and that could prove problematic for a team who have drawn four on the spin away from home in the league, against teams nowhere near the calibre of their fourth round opponents.

Nick Barmby has enjoyed a dream start to life as Hull City manager, winning seven of his first ten games in charge – four of five at the KC Stadium. He also runs a very tight ship in defence, one that has yet to concede two or more goals in a game under his tutelage, so a clinical display from the home side should see them come out on top for the fourth match in a row.

Key Stat: Hull have won four of their last five matches at the KC Stadium, but Crawley are without defeat in ten away from home.

Match Odds: Hull 4/5, Draw 5/2, Crawley 7/2 (WilliamHill)

Leicester City V Swindon Town

League Two high-flyers Swindon are 6/1 underdogs in their match with Championship side Leicester at the King Power Stadium, this in spite of the fact Paulo Di Canio’s men dumped out Wigan Athletic in the third round after a come-from-behind victory over the Premier League outfit. Value? Based on their prolific form in the competition thus far, I would say so.

Swindon, who have lost only once in 22 games since the beginning of October, have been awesome up till now. Successive 4-0 victories away to Plymouth (League Two) and at home to Huddersfield (chasing promotion in League One) set up a third round clash with Premier League Wigan, who were also no match for Di Canio’s imperious charges as The Robins overcame a 1-0 deficit to win 2-1 at The Country Ground. All they need to complete a remarkable set of scalps is one from the Championship…

Leicester required a replay in order to book their place in the fourth round, although they did so with some style in the end, putting four past Nottingham Forest without reply in a 4-0 home success. They then followed that emphatic win up with a 2-0 triumph away to Southampton, who sit second in the Championship. In this vein of form, the Foxes may well devour The Robins.

Key Stat: Swindon have lost one of their last 22 matches in all competitions; meanwhile, Leicester have won only one of their previous five at home.

Match Odds: Leicester 1/2, Draw 3/1, Swindon 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

Millwall V Southampton

Finalists back in 2003, Southampton are wasting very little time bringing the good times back to St Mary’s. Promotion to the Premier League is on the cards after a scintillating start to the season, with Nigel Adkin’s men occupying second in the Championship with a little over half of the term played, although his team have come right off the boil in recent weeks, winning just two of their previous eight league games in a run which has seen them relinquish top spot to West Ham.

Just two weeks ago Millwall were spanked 6-0 by Birmingham on their own patch. Their response was to thumped Dagenham 5-0 in their FA Cup third round replay, also at The Den, before going to Barnsley in the league and winning 3-1. That makes it two wins on the spin for Kenny Jackett’s team, who do unfortunately hover precariously above the Championship relegation zone, 21 points worse off than Southampton.

They sit at opposite ends of the table, but will that show? Considering Southampton were only 1-0 winners when the sides met at St Mary’s back on August 20, 2010 perhaps not especially as it’s Millwall who go into the tie with the momentum – they’ve won two on the spin whereas Southampton were beaten 2-0 at home by Leicester earlier in the week.

Key Stat: Millwall haven’t recorded a win over Southampton for almost 23-years, failing in their previous nine attempts.

Match Odds: Millwall 15/8, Draw 12/5, Southampton 6/4 (BetVictor)

Sheffield United V Birmingham City

An intriguing clash this, between two former Premier League sides. I actually make Birmingham the favourites, despite Sheffield United boasting home advantage at Bramall Lane.

Chris Hughton’s Blues are flying at the minute, winning their last four matches on the spin which inludes a 1-0 win away to Midlands rivals Wolves in their third round FA Cup replay. Either side of that derby success were emphatic league wins as well, first away to Millwall (0-6) before putting Watford to the sword at home (3-0). So they’ll no no shortage of confidence in the Birmingham camp, that’s for sure.

The same applies to United, too, who are third in League One and are kept out of the automatic promotion spots on goal difference alone. They’ve also won a staggering eleven of their last thirteen in all competitions, winning eight on the spin at Bramall Lane, doing so by an aggregate of 22-5. But Birmingham are far leaner than any opposition they have faced all season., although the Blades have won three of the previous four meetings in Sheffield.

Key Stat: Sheffield United are seeking a ninth consecutive home win; however, Birmingham are on a run of four straight victories.

Match Odds: Sheffield United 8/5, Draw 12/5, Birmingham 8/5 (SkyBet)

Stevenage V Notts County

The draw for the fifth round is guaranteed to include at least one club from League One, which is a good thing, as come the draw Stevenage or Notts Country could be the lowest ranked team left in the competition. However, correctly predicting who will make the cut is excruciatingly difficult.

On current form, Stevenage are sure-fire winners. The club are under new management, with 43-year-old former Colorado Rapids manager (Major League Soccer) Gary Smith replacing Graham Westley, but that did not stop them from recording a 4-2 victory over promotion rivals MK Dons on Tuesday – a result which stretched their unbeaten run to four, having lost the one solitary game since October 8, 2011 (W12 D5 L1).

It is the complete opposite at Notts County, who began the season so well but have fallen so dramatically by the wayside from December onwards. Their 0-0 draw with Preston in midweek extend their winless run in the league to eight games, with their only successful outcome during an otherwise dismal month of football being a 2-0 victory at Doncaster in the third round of the FA Cup.

However, it was Notts County who prevailed when the two sides met for the very first time this season back in August – at Stevenage as well – with the Magpies winning 2-0 at Broadhall Way. Could a repeat be on the cards, or will an in-form Boro exact their revenge?

Key Stat: Notts County’s only win in nine was a 2-0 win at Doncaster in the previous round of this competition, while they were also 2-0 winners over Stevenage in the corresponding fixture back in August.

West Bromwich Albion V Norwich City

Just four points separate them in the Barclay’s Premier League, so one expects there won’t be a great deal to choose between them come full-time at The Hawthorns – as was the case when they clashed at this very ground precisely two weeks ago, a contest that was won 2-1 by the visiting Canaries.

Out of instinct perhaps, bookmakers have installed West Brom as favourites here. I fail to see how they make a side who have not recorded a win at home over top flight opposition in over two months favourites, especially one that has plundered the fewest number of goals on home soil (8, which is less than a goal per game).

Norwich are one of seven teams to have gone to The Hawthorns and won this season, so you’re getting tremendous value on a team who know exactly what it takes to beat the Baggies in their own backyard. Paul Lambert’s men are also in decent form; they’ve lost just one of their last eight top flight fixtures and are currently unbeaten in their last four, which does include back-to-back away wins at QPR and West Brom.

Both teams racked up four goals in the third round, though it was Norwich who produced the more accomplished performance. The Canaries were 4-1 winners at home to Burnley, who were in good form themselves at the time, whereas West Brom edged out Cardiff 4-2 (the final scoreline did flatter Roy Hodgson and his team). This could boil down to which manager fancies it more, as I suspect both Roy Hodgson and Paul Lambert could make several changes to the teams that faced each other a fortnight ago.

Key Stat: Norwich have won more times away from home in the Premier League this season than West Brom have at The Hawthorns, scoring almost twice as many goals to boot (15 away compared with West Brom’s 8 at home).

Match Odds: West Brom 19/20, Draw 11/4, Norwich 13/5 (WilliamHill)

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FA Cup 2011-12 Outright Betting:

Chelsea – 9/2 (PaddyPower)

Manchester United – 6/1 (BetVictor)

Tottenham – 6/1 (StanJames)

Arsenal – 15/2 (Coral)

Liverpool – 10/1 (BetVictor)

Sunderland – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

Newcastle – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

Everton – 25/1 (StanJames)

Stoke – 28/1 (BetVictor)

Fulham – 40/1 (StanJames)

50/1 Bar The Rest

Brighton & Hove Albion V Newcastle United

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 28 January 2012 – 17:15 GMT

Venue: Falmer Stadium

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

Having acquired enough points to be sure of Premier League survival, Newcastle can afford to expend more time and energy on this season’s FA Cup than most. As a result the Magpies, who are a best-priced 20/1 with Ladbrokes, could be each-way value to claim their seventh FA Cup. That said, it has been 13 years since their last appearance in a final, while you must go way back to 1955 for the last year they actually won it.

It is crazy to think that Newcastle United are one of the most successful clubs in FA Cup history, despite going over half-a-century without winning the damn thing. Their tally of six is bettered only by five clubs, most of which are obvious. So what of their chances this season? Considering the draw has been kind to them so far, and with relegation from the top flight now an unlikely scenario, I would have to say decent – although I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Newcastle have proven on numerous occasions already this season that they can be a match for absolutely anyone on any given day – but also that they’re squad isn’t strong enough to cope without some of its bigger names.

It was no coincidence that their resounding 5-2 loss to Fulham last week in the league came at a time when defensive stalwart Steven Taylor is out injured, and with Chieck Tiote and Demba Ba away on international duty. All three are unavailable to face Brighton this weekend, which is worrying seeing as Brighton away is no gimme.

Without defeat in their last five league and cup matches – winning four, Brighton provide a stern obstacle for high-flying Newcastle, who sit 6TH in the Barclay’s Premier League. The Seasiders, meanwhile, occupy 10TH in the Championship, but they are going great guns right now and will be buoyed by their late win at Peterborough last time out. Moreover, Gus Poyet’s men will know roughly what is required in order to progress into the fifth round having seen to Newcastle’s fierce north-east rivals Sunderland earlier in the season in the League Cup.

So then, a potentially tricky outing for the Premier League outfit. Food for thought perhaps is that Newcastle have shipped eight goals in their last two away matches – albeit against top flight opposition, whereas Brighton boast one of the stronger home defensive records in the Championship with less than a goal conceded per game at the AMEX Stadium, where they’ve shipped a miserly three in their last eight Championship fixtures.

Some clinical finishing and Brighton could spring a surprise here at handsome odds of 3/1, although Alan Pardew will take enough quality with him to suggest Newcastle could comply at around even-money. Personally, this has the look of a draw.

Match Pointers

- First competitive meeting between the two sides for 20-years, since a 1-0 league win for Brighton at St James’ Park back in March of 1992.

- Brighton are unbeaten in their last five league and cup games, winning four including back-to-back home wins over Bristol City (2-0) and Southampton (3-0).

- Gus Poyet’s side have won five and lost only one of their previous seven matches on home soil, keeping four clean sheets and conceding just three times.

- Newcastle’s three-game winning run came to an abrupt end with a 5-2 Premier League loss to Fulham last time out – their second away defeat on the spin having lost 3-1 to Liverpool in their previous away match.

- Newcastle have now won just one of their last six away from home, losing four times and conceding 16 in total.

Betting

It was to be expected that Newcastle would struggle in the absence of African duo Tiote and Ba, who really do make such a difference when they’re in the side. One scores goals while the other denies the opponent from doing the same. However, for the first half of last week’s 5-2 defeat away to Fulham, Newcastle were the superior side in every aspect. While they did record a win over QPR the time before, and that was without the aforementioned duo.

For all their resilience and organised defending, Brighton aren’t exactly prolific. Newcastle don’t normally concede goals in batches of five either. So we could see a contest where defences come out on top, which doesn’t bode well seeing as this clash is to be shown live on ESPN. The stalemate oozes appeal for me, as do the odds on a goalless affair.

Prediction: Draw @ 5/2 SkyBet

Value Bet: 0-0 Draw (Correct Score) @ 9/1 BetVictor

Match Odds

Brighton – 3/1 PaddyPower

Draw – 5/2 SkyBet

Newcastle – 1/1 Ladbrokes

Watford V Tottenham Hotspur

Date & Kick-Off: Friday, 27 January 2012 – 19:45 GMT

Venue: Vicarage Road

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

Seemingly now out of the running for the Barclay’s Premier League, Tottenham could soon find themselves with no silverware prospects at all should they fail to negotiate Watford at Vicarage Road in the fourth round of the FA Cup.

Not since 1961 have Spurs been crowned champions of England. Their 51-year drought is unlikely to cease any time soon either, not after succumbing to current Premier League pacesetters Manchester City last time out to fall eight points off the pace. The club has vowed to bounce back from that setback and refuses to throw in the towel with regards to the title race, but the manner of the defeat could mean a pre-occupied Harry Redknapp has his work cut out lifting the mood of a dressing room that could be forgiven for feeling a little sorry for themselves.

Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp has spent much of the week leading up to Friday’s tie in court facing up to charges of tax evasion, so the 64-year-old is unlikely to be in the best frame of mind to galvanise a group of players whose morale has to be questioned following last weekend’s agonising defeat – only their fourth league defeat of the season, and one they certainly did not deserve on the merit of play.

The team will need lifting as well, as Sunday’s game was an emotional roller-coaster for everyone involved. To have Jermaine Defoe spurn a gilt-edged opportunity in stoppage time, with the City goal at his mercy, to conceding with virtually the last kick of the game, via a penalty that was converted by a player who should not of been on the pitch at that time, will naturally hurt. It may even leaving a lasting scar, as Tottenham are renowned for capitulating mid-season.

Statistics suggest Watford have it all to do…

Even with their confidence and morale suffering a blow recently, you’d like to think Spurs will have too much class and quality for their opponents. Whereas Tottenham are flying high in the Barclay’s Premier League, where they sit third with 14 wins from 22 games so far, Watford find themselves hovering precariously above the Championship relegation zone following a run of three consecutive defeats. They are also one of the division’s lowest scorers, barely averaging a goal a game.

So a massive ask for the former Premier League outfit turned Championship strugglers, although the Hornets may well fancy their chances at home, at a packed Vicarage Road, against what may well be an understrength Spurs outfit. The Tottenham manager has not shied away from declaring the Premier League his number one priority this season, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him rotate his squad and hand some of his first-team regulars the weekend off – a similar approach he took in both the Carling Cup and Europa League, with very little success I hasten to add.

It is also worth mentioning that Watford have only lost once at home in their last ten, although that was a 2-1 reverse to Reading in their last Championship fixture at Vicarage Road. It’s also a run strung together against mediocre opposition. But 5 of their 7 Championships wins were earned at home, as were 19 of the 28 goals they’ve scored, so there could be some potential for an upset should Harry Redknapp decide to have a tinker with his team.

Match Pointers

- On their last visit to Vicarage Road, in December 2008 for a League Cup encounter, Tottenham ran out 2-1 winners thanks to strikes from Roman Pavlyuchenko and Darren Bent.

- Watford haven’t beaten Tottenham in their last six competitive meetings, with their most recent success over the Londoners being a 3-2 triumph at White Hart Lane back in 1994.

- The Hornets sit 18TH in the Championship and are on a three-match losing streak, scoring just once in their last 270 minutes of football.

- At home, Watford have suffered defeat just once in their last nine (W5 D3 L1) – though that did occur in their most recent fixture at Vicarage Road, in a 2-1 reverse to Reading on January 14.

- Only Manchester United (8) have claimed more victories away from home in the Premier League this season than Tottenham (winning 6 of 11).

- Spurs have only been beaten once in their last ten matches in all competitions (W6 D3 L1), which was their agonising 3-2 defeat to Man City last Sunday.

Betting

Prediction: Tottenham to WIN @ 1/2 Bet365

Tottenham host Wigan Athletic in their next Premier League fixture before run-ins with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. With this in mind, and with Spurs not quite out of the title race just yet, it wouldn’t be a big surprise were we to see Harry Redknapp tinker with his team-sheet and hand some of his first-team regulars the weekend off. He may not, but this is a manager who made wholesale changes throughout his side’s Europa League campaign. He did something very similar in the Carling Cup as well, a competition they bowed out of at the earliest departure point after a largely second-string outfit failed to overcome Stoke at the Brittania Stadium.

Rotation could actually be a shrewd move, as one suspects morale amongst the first-team isn’t great following last week’s agonising league defeat to Man City. I expect it will be a mixture though, of first-team regulars and those on the periphery, and that really ought to be good enough to see off average opposition in the form of a Watford team who host this tie on the back of three straight league defeats, having mustered just one goal in this dismal run.

Value Bet: Roman Pavlyuchenko First Goalscorer @ 5/1 Bet365

Having quashed rumours of a move away from White Hart Lane by signing a contract extension, Roman Pavlyuchenko could be rewarded with a start against Watford. The Russian has barely featured under Harry Redknapp this season, with his appearances mainly limited to the Europa League, but he does have 4 in 12 for the campaign and is actually a mean finisher, despite what his lack of starts may suggest. Defoe could be rested while Harry may not risk Adebayor either.

Match Odds

Watford – 7/1 StanJames

Draw – 10/3 Ladbrokes

Tottenham – 1/2 Bet365

Peterborough V Sunderland

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 8 January 2012 – 15:30 GMT

Venue: London Road

Preview

Premier League Sunderland go to Peterborough of the Championship in the Third Round of the FA Cup on Sunday keen to continue their fine vein of form under new manager Martin O’Neill. The hosts, though, can sniff an upset and at London Road, where Darren Ferguson’s team are renowned for their prolific scoring tendencies, Posh will certainly test the credentials of a side who many punters believe could be the stand-out each-way value in this year’s tournament.

Due to their current upturn in form, thanks in no small part to the appointment of a manager who conveniently boasts a proven track record in the domestic cups, Sunderland are many people’s idea of value for the 2011/12 FA Cup. The Wearside club are 50/1 with WilliamHill to claim their third success in this competition – to secure their first FA Cup since 1973 – and while it’s unlikely that an outsider will go all the way to Wembley and lift the trophy, every now and then a team threatens to defy all the odds – so why not a rejuvenated Sunderland?

Since Martin O’Neill’s arrival at Sunderland, succeeding the sacked Steve Bruce in December, the Black Cats have taken ten points from a possible twelve in the league, found goals markedly easier to come by, and even turned over current top flight pacesetters Manchester City. Now that’s some transformation, and that’s before he has had a chance to stamp his mark on the team with a few signings of his own in the January transfer window.

The Northern Irishman has also inherited a talented group of players as well, a strong squad that is capable of rising to the occasion – as they demonstrated at home to Manchester City on New Year’s Day. They proved that their fine performance against the current Premier League leaders wasn’t a fluke by hammering Wigan next time out, scoring four at the DW Stadium in a comfortable 4-1 victory which saw Sunderland climb into the top half of the top flight.

It goes without saying, then, that morale is sky-high around Wearside amongst supporters, and the same goes for the confidence levels inside the Sunderland dressing room. However injuries could soon put a damper on things, with Martin O’Neill missing a large chunk of his squad for the trip to Peterborough. Goalkeeper Keiran Westwood, defenders Wes Brown, Titus Bramble, Phil Bardsley and Michael Turner, along with midfielder Sebastian Larsson are all doubtful for the clash.

Peterborough themselves are a little light; manager Darren Ferguson, son of Manchester United’s Sir Alex, is shorn of Lee Tomlin and Lee Frecklington, as well as set-piece specialist Grant McCann, but has been granted permission to use on-loan trio Josh Thompson, Ryan Tunnicliffe and Scott Wootton.

Posh go into Sunday’s game having not lost over the festive period, with the side who sit 14TH in the Championship currently without defeat in five in a sequence which does include impressive draws away at Leicester and Middlesbrough. However, the absence of some of their more influential attacking figures has been felt with the team failing to score more than one goal in each of those previously mentioned five games.

Without their renowned forward potency, are Peterborough really a threat to in-form Sunderland?

Match Pointers

- This will be only their sixth competitive meeting; Sunderland have triumphed in each of the previous, four of five altogether, and won their only FA Cup encounter with Peterborough so far 7-1 way back in 1967.

- Championship side Peterborough sit 15TH in their division, 24 places below 10TH-placed Sunderland in the Premier League.

- Peterborough go into the tie unbeaten in five Championship matches (W2 D3), scoring precisely one goal in all five.

- There have been more goals in Peterborough’s matches this season than any other team in the Championship (44 FOR, 41 AGAINST – 85 TOTAL).

- Sunderland have yet to suffer a defeat under new manager Martin O’Neill, with the Northern Irishman winning three of his four games in charge thus far including a 1-0 win over Premiership leaders Man City.

- The Black Cats have won their last two games away from home, at QPR and Wigan, scoring seven goals in total.

Betting

Match Outcome: Sunderland to WIN @ EVENS with PaddyPower

I asked the same question in my preview, but are Peterborough capable of causing Sunderland any real problems with their misfiring forward line as it is? Posh have scored just five times in as many games and are missing a number of key creative players who may have been able to unlock the defence of the Premier League outfit. Without them, and with what’s left at Darren Ferguson’s disposal, I am left with little alternative but to back the favourites – a Sunderland team in high-spirits, bang in form with three wins from their last four, and who have the cover to replace their injured personnel.

First Goalscorer: Nicklas Bendtner @ 11/2 with BetFred

He hasn’t had the desired affect the club, the fans nor even he expected he would when he signed for the club in the summer on loan from Arsenal, however Nicklas Bendtner should be accustomed to scoring against this level opposition. After all, most of his appearances for the Gunners were in the domestic cup competitions. The lanky Dane, who can never be criticised for a lack of confidence, is 11/2 favourite to open the scoring in a contest where few others stand out in this particular market.

Stephane Sessegnon has some form of appeal at 6/1, while Emile Sinclair (8/1) and George Boyd (9/1) are the most likely for Peterborough.

Match Odds

Peterborough – 3/1 VictorChandler

Draw – 11/4 Bet365

Sunderland – 1/1 (EVENS) PaddyPower

Manchester City V Manchester United

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 8 January 2012 – 13:00 GMT

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Preview

There is no shortage of drama whenever these two fierce rivals come to blows on a football pitch, so we can expect another helter-skelter encounter at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday when Manchester’s finest – City and United – do battle for the third time this season, with the current score one apiece.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s United have been the dominant force in Manchester for what will have felt like an eternity in the eyes of City supporters, but that is no longer the case any more, not after Roberto Mancini masterminded a 6-1 City win at Old Trafford last October. That was the Citizens joint-biggest margin of victory over their locals – ever.

United will claim the score is currently 1-1, after it was they who clinched the Community Shield back in August thanks to a miraculous second half comeback, winning 3-2 after storming back from 2-0 down at the half-time interval. However, City have claimed the spoils in the encounters that have really mattered – their league meeting at Old Trafford in October, and their narrow victory in last season’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley.

So then, we’re now at Round 3. Bookmakers make hosts City favourites, for obvious reason; Roberto Mancini’s side haven’t lost a competitive match at home since December 2010, winning 29 of their last 30 at the newly-named Etihad Stadium. Their ruthless performance against Liverpool during the week, winning 3-0 in the league, was their eleventh in succession on their own patch.

They will, though, be missing of their African stars. Both Toure brothers, defender Kolo and midfielder Yaya, have earned call-ups from the Ivory Coast and have already departed for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations. Joleon Lescott is a worthy replacement for Kolo but Mancini believes Yaya is an irreplaceable figure in the heart of his midfield, with no player having made more successful passes than the former Barcelona anchorman.

Even though City’s Italian chief will be shorn of a player who he clearly rates in the highest regard, he can consider himself fortunate that he isn’t in a similar position to his opposite number, Sir Alex Ferguson. The United manager is without nine first-team players for Sunday’s trip to Eastlands including captain Nemanja Vidic, defender Jonny Evans and midfielders Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher and Ashley Young, who are all definitely ruled out. Meanwhile Chris Smalling remains a doubt.

On top of all their injury woes, United go into the game in terrible form, too. Wednesday’s shock 3-0 loss to Newcastle on Tyneside was as comprehensive as they come, coming just days after they were humbled at home by lowly Blackburn. It leaves them on the cusp of a third straight defeat. Can you remember the last time Manchester United lost three on the spin, because I certainly don’t.

Match Pointers

- These two fierce rivals have clashed seven times in the FA Cup, with Manchester United edging this particular head-to-head with four wins to City’s three, although the latter were victorious at the semi-final stage of last season’s competition, winning 1-0 at Wembley.

- Their most recent encounter in any competition came in the league back in October, when Man City thumped their neighbours 6-1 at Old Trafford.

- Manchester City haven’t lost a match at home since losing 2-1 to Everton in December 2010, winning 29 of 31 at the Etihad Stadium since.

- The Citizens’ 3-0 victory over Liverpool in the league on Tuesday was their eleventh win in a row at home in all competitions, a run which has seen them plunder 30 goals and concede just 5.

- Manchester United are aiming to avoid a third consecutive league defeat having lost 3-2 at home to Blackburn and 3-0 away to Newcastle in the league either side of the New Year.

Betting

Match Winner: Manchester City @ 23/20 VictorChandler

With United’s injury-ravaged squad having slumped to defeats at home to Blackburn and away at Newcastle, I am finding it incredibly difficult predicting anything other than a home win, which, surprisingly, is healthy odds considering the circumstances. Man City are 23/20 with VictorChandler to inflict a third consecutive defeat on their fierce local rivals; truly stunning odds, in my opinion.

There will be far too much creativity and energy in the Man City attacks for United’s lacklustre defence to handle, while the battle in midfield will be a one-sided affair. Wayne Rooney is the only player who could help United spring an upset, and a United victory would be just that – an upset, but even he doesn’t look capable of carrying the Red Devils, not on current form anyway.

A straightforward win for the hosts, who are targeting their twelfth consecutive home win in all competitions.

First Goalscorer: Vicent Kompany @ 40/1 BetFred

Even though I don’t rate his team’s chances, Wayne Rooney at 6/1 to open the scoring has to be considered value. A player of his quality and calibre is capable of scoring in any fixture. Sergio Aguero is the favourite however, with the Argentine 11/2 to score the game’s first goal, as he did on Tuesday when City cruised to a 3-0 win at home to Liverpool. David Silva at 8/1 is interesting, but the value for me is City defender Vincent Kompany at 40/1!

United have looked vulnerable at the back all season long, but even more so since Vidic was ruled out for the rest of the season because of injury, and it could take something like an effort from a set-piece to liven up what could be a cagey affair in the opening stages. Joleon Lescott, another City defender who is decent in the air, is also worth a shout at the same price.

BetFred are doing their popular Double Delight and Hat-trick Heaven promotion for this game, meaning if you’re player scores the game’s first goal and goes on to score again, they will double your odds if he scores twice and treble them if he bags three!

Match Odds

Manchester City – 23/20 VictorChandler

Draw – 12/5 Bet365

Manchester United – 13/5 PaddyPower

Bristol Rovers V Aston Villa

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 7 January 2012 – 17:30 GMT

Venue: Memorial Ground

Preview

At 33/1, you could say Aston Villa are exceptional value to be crowned 2011/12 FA Cup winners, having won the competition no fewer than seven times in their 137-year existence. Only three clubs have won the oldest domestic knockout competition in club football more times in fact. But with their last triumph some 55 years ago, way back in 1957, and with their last appearance in a final back in 2000, it’s little wonder they’re so alluring.

The fact of the matter is, Aston Villa have rarely come close to adding to their impressive haul ever since they last lifted the trophy aloft. Though they did make it all the way to Wembley a couple of seasons ago, under Martin O’Neill, who guided the club to the semi-final before losing in agonising fashion to eventual winners Chelsea. However there are several reasons why those Villains do appeal at the odds.

The first being the appointment of Alex McLeish in the summer, the former Birmingham manager who last season guided the aforementioned club to the final of the Carling Cup, beating Arsenal at Wembley in dramatic circumstances. ‘Big Eck’ knows exactly what is required in order to go the distance, while he always makes his teams as difficult as possible beat, as Chelsea found out the other week when Villa went to Stamford Bridge and won 3-1.

A distinct lack of targets in the league is the second reason why Villa should do well in the FA Cup; they’re not going to be relegated, nowhere near, but at the same time aren’t strong enough to mount an assault on the top-six. Now while that may seem a negative, the fact they aren’t strong enough to contend with some of the strongest teams in the country, I do mean over the course of a season and not in 90 minutes of football.

Villa demonstrated precisely what they are capable of when push comes to shove, when they execute their game plan to perfection and everyone pulls in the same direction, on New Year’s Eve by beating Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge. So, on any given day Alex McLeish’s team could turn one of the big teams over.

The Villains begin their quest for the FA Cup at the Memorial Ground, home of free-falling Bristol Rovers who go into the Third Round without a manager. Paul Buckle was given his marching orders on Tuesday, leaving the club 19TH in League Two after a dismal run of four straight defeats. Assistant manager Shaun North will now take charge of Saturday’s game, handed the daunting task of selecting a team from a group devoid of any confidence.

It’s set-up to be a comfortable evening for favourites Villa, who are 4/7 to show their class. There are goals here if they want them, too, with Rovers conceding eight in their previous two fixtures at the Memorial Ground, against lowly Crewe (2-5) and Plymouth (2-3). However, The Pirates shown glimpses of quality in the previous round, away at non-league AFC Totton, netting six times in all – three coming in the first 15 minutes – and if they could get off to a flyer then who knows, the giant-killing may well be on.

Match Pointers

- These two teams have met three times in the Third Round of the FA Cup, with Aston Villa winning on all three occasions.

- Last competitive meeting was nineteen years ago, in the Third Round of the FA Cup; the pair drew 1-1 at Villa Park but Aston Villa won the replay in Bristol 3-0.

- Bristol Rovers sit 19TH in League Two, a division they haven’t won a game in since 29 October – they’ve lost six of eight ever since, including each of the last four.

- The Pirates have scored nine goals in their two FA Cup ties so far, recording emphatic wins over Corby Ton (3-1) and AFC Totton (1-6).

- Aston Villa have dropped to 13TH in the Premier League after winning just one of their last five, but did beat Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in their most recent away encounter.

- The Villains are now unbeaten in four on their travels (W2 D2), while they’ve only lost twice away from home in the top flight all season (W2 D6 L2).

Betting

Personally, I don’t foresee the upset. Bristol Rovers are a club in disarray at the present time and on current form, with the team having lost their last four league matches by an aggregate of 5-14, they could be on the wrong end of a hammering. Especially as Villa arrive in good knick themselves, despite losing at home to Swansea in midweek.

Losing to Swansea at Villa Park was a big turn up for the books, as Alex McLeish would have expected nothing less than for his team to build on their sensational victory over Chelsea in London. Fortunately they’ve been given a very generous opportunity to make amends, with progress in the FA Cup at stake when they travel to hapless Bristol Rovers.

Villa have been toothless at times this season, but defensively they remain resolute so it’s very difficult to see the underdogs even scoring. With that in mind, picking a winner was a simple task. Provided McLeish names a strong team – and he has to, because those on the fringes simply aren’t reliable – this should be routine for the Villains. When is it ever, though?

Recommended Bet: Aston Villa to WIN – 4/7 Bet365

Value Bet: Aston Villa 3-0 (Correct Score) – 12/1 PaddyPower

Match Odds

Bristol Rovers – 6/1 VictorChandler

Draw – 3/1 WilliamHill

Aston Villa – 4/7 Bet365

Manchester City V Stoke City

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 14 May 2011 – 15:00 (GMT)
Venue: Wembley, London
TV Coverage: ITV1 & ESPN

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Preview

It is easy to discount the fact that the 2010/2011 FA Cup has stretched over nine months, featuring more than 700 competitors. However, this year’s version of the oldest knockout competition in the history of the sport will finally reach a conclusion on Saturday, 14 May when the most expensively-assembled squad in the land take on this year’s surprise package as Manchester City and Stoke City do battle at Wembley in an intriguing final, because of the contrasting styles and personnel, that will be shown in front of a large scale audience across the globe.

We may even see a first time winner, with Stoke set to appear in their very first FA Cup final after several failed efforts in the semi-finals. They made no mistake this time around though, thumping Bolton Wanderers 5-0 at Wembley last month to book a final date with one of the two Manchester giants. Yaya Toure scored the only goal of the game as underdogs Manchester City prevailed over their hated rivals Manchester United, winning 1-0 and in turn put his team within touching distance of securing their fifth FA Cup; their first since 1969.

And it’s of no surprise that Manchester City, the team with the greater pedigree and the big names, are the favourites to win Saturday’s show-piece. Several hundred million has been spent by their multi-billionaire owner, Sheikh Mansour, for this very purpose, to win major honours, and so it would almost be criminal were they not to be crowned 2010/2011 FA Cup winners. Stoke, though, won’t care less regarding any inferiority complex and will, as they have done for the most part throughout their highly successful three-year tenure in the Barclay’s Premier League, look to defy all the odds en route to claiming another significant scalp – though there will be none bigger than Man City in the final of the FA Cup.

Indeed, recent history is also on the underdogs’ side. Since 2008, these two very teams have clashed on no less than seven separate occasions, with Stoke losing just twice (W2 D3 L2) and even dumped Roberto Mancini’s City side out of last season’s FA Cup with a 3-1 victory at The Brittania Stadium. However, there is little doubt as to which of the two are on the right path to stardom.

It has been well documented that Manchester City have spent large sums on building a team capable of competing at the highest levels and winning trophies, and at long last, under the tactical nous of an Italian by the name of Roberto Mancini, whom had a tidy CV when it came to winning silverware at his former club Inter Milan, the club are beginning to see some of the fruits of their labour. Not only are they within 90 minutes of bringing the first piece of silverware to a club which has been starved of such a thing for 35-years , the glamour of Champions League football awaits them next season. Exciting times at Eastlands, then.

So whereas Man City expect nothing less than to be entertaining such fixtures for many years to come, it is the exact opposite for their opponents. And punters can rest assured that there isn’t a club more rooted than Stoke City; they know full well that opportunities like this are rare and are unlikely to come their way again for a very long time, so you can expect nothing less than a typically committed performance from The Potters on Saturday in what for some, including their highly rated manager but even more so their supporters, is the biggest match of their life’s.

On paper, I would say they are fairly evenly matched. Of course, it goes without saying that Manchester City boast the greater array of players, with manager Roberto Mancini having an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. They’ll also be in jubilant mood following victory over Tottenham Hotspur, which secured Champions League football for next season, just four days previous. Stoke, though, are in terrific form – it’s now five games without defeat, stretching back to their 5-0 hammering of Bolton in the semi-final to last weekend’s 3-1 rout of Arsenal at fortress Brittania – while their supporters, and I genuinely believe this, are some of the most passionate in the country and will shed just as much blood, sweat and tears in the Wembley stands as their team will on the pitch.

A lot does however depend on who does and does not make the team-sheet. Roberto Mancini is sweating over the fitness of star striker Carlos Tevez, who has scored 22 goals in all competitions this season but could only manage the last ten minutes of Tuesday’s league fixture with Spurs. Tony Pulis, meanwhile, has major concerns over two key players, with defender Robert Huth – a prominent threat from the air and a defender who has chipped in with nine goals this season – and winger Matthew Etherington both facing a race against time to be fit for Saturday’s colossal encounter.

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Form

Manchester City – WWWLW (Man City 1-0 Man City, Blackburn 0-1 Man City, Man City 2-1 West Ham, Everton 2-1 Man City, Man City 1-0 Tottenham)

The Citizens will be in high spirits following Tuesday’s hard-fought victory over Tottenham, with their 1-0 triumph at Eastlands good enough to secure Champions League football next season. However, their form in general has been very inconsistent, and they have lacked similar continuity in this season’s FA Cup as well. In the earlier rounds they struggled to overcome lower league opposition in the form of Leicester City and Notts County, while they also encountered problems in the Sixth Round with Reading. On that form, City look mighty vulnerable against an in-form, confident Stoke.

Stoke City – WDWDW (Bolton 0-5 Stoke, Aston Villa 1-1 Stoke, Stoke 3-0 Wolves, Blackpool 0-0 Stoke, Stoke 3-1 Arsenal)

The Potters will head into Saturday’s FA Cup final, arguably the biggest game in the club’s history, with plenty of momentum following last week’s 3-1 hammering of Arsenal at The Brittania. Stoke have now gone five games without defeat, and that does include their 5-0 demolition of Bolton in the semi-final.

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2010/2011 FA Cup Results

Manchester City

Third Round: Leicester 2-2 Man City
Third Round (Replay): Man City 4-2 Leicester
Fourth Round: Notts County 1-1 Man City
Fourth Round Man City 5-0 Notts County
Fifth Round: Man City 3-0 Aston Villa
Sixth Round: Man City 1-0 Reading
Semi-Final: Man City 1-0 Man Utd

Stoke City

Third Round: Stoke 1-1 Cardiff
Third Round (Replay): Cardiff 0-2 Stoke
Fourth Round: Wolves 0-1 Stoke
Fifth Round: Stoke 3-0 Brighton
Sixth Round: Stoke 2-1 West Ham
semi-Final: Bolton 0-5 Stoke

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Head-to-Head (All Competitions)

Man City wins: 40
Draws: 21
Stoke wins: 35

Last 5 Seasons (Premiership)

2010/2011: Stoke 1-1 Man City
2009/2010: Stoke 1-1 Man City
2009/2010: Man City 2-0 Stoke
2008/2009: Stoke 1-0 Man City
2008/2009: Man City 3-0 Stoke

FA Cup Meetings

2010/2011: Stoke 3-1 Man City (Replay)
2010/2011: Man City 1-1 Stoke

1975/1976: Stoke 1-0 Man City

1972/1973: Man City 3-2 Stoke

1933/1934: Man City 1-0 Stoke

1927/1928: Man City 0-1 Stoke

1910/1911: Stoke 1-2 Man City

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Value Bets

Manchester City to WIN to NIL @ 3.00 PaddyPower

Roberto Mancini’s men have won their last four FA Cup ties without conceding.

Carlos Tevez Last Goalscorer @ 6.00 WilliamHill

He has scored more goals than any other Manchester City player this season, however the Argentine striker has spent the last month on the sidelines with a hamstring injury but has conveniently recovered in time to be in contention for Saturday. However, despite his courageous efforts to regain his fitness, I believe Tevez may have to settle for an appearance from the bench, though that will only make him an even bigger threat, up against some tired Stoke legs in the second half.

Robert Huth to Score @ 11.50 Unibet

The German defender is trying every method possible to be fit in time for Saturday’s showdown and my inkling is that he may just make the cut. If he does, Huth, who has scored nine times this season, will be Stoke’s main threat from set-pieces and looks tremendous value to get on the scoresheet.

Kenwyn Jones to Hit the Woodwork (Post or Crossbar without scoring) @ 11.00 888Sport

No players has hit the post or crossbar more times in the Premier League this season than Stoke’s powerful forward, whom has also netted three times in his last four starts.

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Special Bets

To Lift the Trophy

Manchester City – 1.40 Boylesports
Stoke City – 3.00 Bet365

To Win in Extra-Time

Manchester City – 11.00 Bet365
Stoke City – 26.00 Bet365

To Win on Penalties

Manchester City – 13.00 Boylesports
Stoke City – 13.00 Boylesports

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Match Prediction: Stoke City to WIN – 4.60 Totesport

Although a couple of Stoke’s influential figures are touch-and-go for Saturday, my message is clear: Write off this particular underdog at your peril, as Stoke have the ammunition to turn over the odds-on favourites; a loyal and passionate following of supporters, an intimidating group of players in stature, as well as a shrewd manager, but also a taste for defying adversity, something they did to devastating affect just last Sunday, when comprehensively beating Arsenal 3-1, and have done throughout their stay in the most demanding of domestic leagues, the Barclay’s Premier League.

Manchester City are rightly favourites. That said, I definitely feel firms have gone mad with their price on a Stoke upset, and I’m certain I won’t be the only one who reckons Tony Pulis’ side are exceptional value this weekend.

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Match Odds

Manchester City – 1.91 VictorChandler
Draw – 3.60 Bet365
Stoke City – 4.60 Totesport