Birmingham V Wolves

Birmingham City V Wolves

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 7 January 2012 – 12:30 GMT

Venue: St Andrews

Preview

The first of five FA Cup Third Round ties to be shown live, either on ITV1 or ESPN, takes place at the home of last season’s Carling Cup winners, Birmingham, with St Andrews the setting for an all-Midlands clash between Chris Hughton’s Blues and Mick McCarthy’s Wolves.

Birmingham are of course Championship opposition now, after their relegation from the top flight on the final day of last season, although that hasn’t counted against them in the betting with bookmakers installing the Blues as 7/5 favourites to progress into the Fourth Round.

The main reason behind the market support for Chris Hughton’s Blues is their impressive record on home soil this term. In all competitions, and this includes three Europa League encounters, Birmingham have lost just once at St Andrews (W9 D5 L1) – a 3-1 loss to Braga of Portugal, who just last season were beating Arsenal in the Champions League.

Since their solitary defeat of the campaign at home, back on 15 September, Birmingham have won six of eleven in an unbeaten sequence; they’ve also conceded just seven goals during this run, which is typical of a team who were renowned for their staunch defence during their recent two-year spell in the top flight (2009-2011).

However, so much upheaval has taken place since the 2011 Carling Cup winners were strutting their stuff in the Premier League. There has been a change in manager, with Alex McLeish replaced by former Magpies boss Chris Hughton, while many of the club’s highest earners were urged to seek pastures new with goalkeeper Ben Foster, defender Roger Johnson, whom could start for Wolves on Saturday, Lee Bowyer and Cameron Jerome among those no longer at St Andrews.

The battle for top flight survival is Mick McCarthy’s top priority this season – and it is this reason why so many consider Birmingham the most likely winners in this contest. As following a gruelling festive schedule which saw Wolves contest three league games within the space of six days, two of which were against Arsenal and Chelsea, we’re all anticipating changes from the Wanderers tactician.

Mick McCarthy made wholesale changes in the Carling Cup earlier in the season, and the rumour going round is that he could do something similar in the FA CUp, a competition Wolves rarely go far in nowadays (they’ve exited at the Fourth Round, so the next round, in eight of the previous twelve editions of the competition). Although, those currently on the periphery of the Wolves first-team aren’t bad players; Kevin Foley, Ronald Zubar, Karl Henry, Emmanuel Frimpong and Matt Jarvis all come into contention.

Another almost certain to start is top scorer Steven Fletcher, who was used only as a substitute in the 2-1 home defeat to Chelsea last time out. Fletcher is Wolves’ leading marksmen this season with 8 goals, four shy of the tally he managed in the whole of the previous campaign.

Match Pointers

- Birmingham have lost just one of the last seven matches in which they have hosted Midlands rivals Wolves; however, that rare loss did occur in this very competition, and at this very stage of the tournament, back in 2009 as goals from Andy Keogh and Sam Vokes sealed a 2-0 success for Wolves in the Third Round of the 2008/09 FA Cup.

- There are seventeen positions separating these two clubs, with Wolves occupying 16TH in the Premier League and Birmingham 14TH in the Championship.

- Birmingham are unbeaten since Boxing Day, winning one and drawing two of their last three matches.

- The Blues haven’t lost a Championship match at St Andrews all season (W7 D4 L0), with their only reverse on home soil this season coming against Portuguese side Braga in the group stage of the UEFA Europa League.

- Chris Hughton’s Birmingham boast the strongest defensive record at home in the second tier with just five goals conceded in eleven games, keeping six clean sheets.

- Wolves are without a win in six in the Premier League,losing three, although their festive schedule was gruelling to say the least having faced such likes as Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United.

- The Molineux outfit have won just once away from home in the Premier League this season (W1 D3 L6), losing six and winning none of their previous eight.

Betting

A tricky contest to call, this. Whereas Birmingham merit a heap of respect for their exploits at home, having not lost a league match all season at St Andrews, they’re a shadow of the team they were last season under Alex Mcleish in the Premiership. Nonetheless, new manager Chris Hughton has retained some of the defensive fortitude which made the Blues such stubborn opponents in the top flight, especially at home; they’ve conceded just seven goals in their last eleven matches at St Andrews in all competitions, including the Europa League.

The hosts also go into the tie in good knick, too, having gone three unbeaten since Boxing Day. Wolves, meanwhile, have chalked up six without winning – three draws and three defeats – and were last victorious away from home at Northampton in the League Cup, losing seven of their subsequent nine road matches since. And if rumours are true that manager Mick McCarthy is considering resting a few of his key figures, establishing any sort of pre-match confidence in the visitors will be close to impossible.

Much does depend on the strength of the Wolves’ line-up, but even so Birmingham are formidable on their own patch and would be stern opposition for anyone. In the end, though, I’m struggling to select a winner – so draw it is.

Recommended Bet: Draw – 23/10 SkyBet

Value Bet: 0-0 Correct Score – 10/1 Ladbrokes

Match Odds

Birmingham City – 7/5 Ladbrokes

Draw – 23/10 SkyBet

Wolves – 9/4 VictorChandler

Birmingham City V Wolverhampton Wanderers

Sunday, 7^th February – 13:30 GMT

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: DWDLD

Finally… After fifteen games, twelve of which were Premiership fixtures, Birmingham fell to defeat as Chelsea ended the clubs most impressive run in it’s history by beating Birmingham 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, just over a week ago in what was a comfortable evening for the London outfit. However, that defeat was so nearly followed up with another when they went mere minutes away from falling to their second defeat in quick succession at home to Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, eventually drawing 1-1 via an injury time equaliser. The defeat to Chelsea has perhaps got the Birmingham squad rocking but they have a very easy assignment on Sunday when they aim to make a return to winning ways by welcoming the only team that finished above them in The Championship last season – Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Alex McLeish didn’t have much luck in January, with Birmingham not managing a win that month and several of their bids for some high profile individuals being turned down by various clubs. The Scotsman has quickly come to the conclusion that Birmingham aren’t as strong in the final third as he would like. However, he could only watch on with despair as bids for Ryan Babel & Roman Pavlyuchenko got rejected by Liverpool & Tottenham respectively. To be fair, it wasn’t surprising that McLeish did target some forwards as Birmingham, despite previously enjoying a glorious unbeaten run of twelve games in the league, have looked very weak up top in front of goal, with the last time Birmingham scored two or more in a Premiership fixture coming back in December when they beat Blackburn 2-1 at St. Andrews. They have since failed to surpass the one goal marker in their last six league games and their finishing on Sunday against Spurs was the evidence to back up their poor goalscoring antics this season.

Although their unbeaten run did come to an end a little over a week ago, Birmingham are still undefeated at St. Andrews since the 26^th September, 2009 when they lost 2-1 to Bolton. They haven’t lost a league fixture in front of their home fans in eight games; Winning 4, Drawing 4. However, although this home run of theirs is still alight, they haven’t won at home since the middle of December, drawing their last three home fixtures. Then again, all were against stiff opposition; Chelsea (0-0), Man Utd (1-1) & their latest being Tottenham Hotspur (1-1). All three draws would look worthy results on anyone’s results list but Wolves are one of the weakest teams in the league and questions will be asked of their mental toughness were they not to win on Sunday as doubts will arise over whether Birmingham are still feeling the affects of their Chelsea heartache. 

On face value, and the way Birmingham have gone about their business for most of this season, this should be a home win, although we don’t think it will be a walk in the park as Birmingham don’t win games comfortably. We’ve mentioned this fact, or run, so many times and until it changes we won’t stop mentioning it as it’s a possible moneymaker – All of Birmingham’s nine victories in the league have been by a 1 goal margin, with six being 1-0 wins. That’s a staggering statistic as you could of made a fortune betting on Birmingham to win by one goal this season. Also, Birmingham did beat Wolves 1-0 at Molineux earlier in the season… We think a predictable pattern has been formed!

Wolverhampton Wanderers

League Position: 17th

Recent Form: LLLDD

This losing trend of theirs has come to end and has been halted by a pair of draws, two decent ones as well. Mick McCarthy will pin his hopes of his sides draws with Liverpool & Hull City building some momentum as they will need plenty of it heading to St. Andrews. The incentive though, as if they needed one with the club so perilously close to the relegation zone, is to avenge the defeat they suffered at the hands of Birmingham back in November when they lost 1-0 at Molineux. However, that defeat catapulted Wolves into winning three of their following four league games and they’ll be hoping a win over Birmingham will send them on their way onto another point baring run.

Wolves have had to work damn hard in their recent outings, frustrating Liverpool at Molineux in a goalless draw and then giving Hull a good scare at The KC last Sunday, earning a 2-2 draw. The draw wasn’t the best of results as it was a game they could of won on paper, but it did, nevertheless, add a vital point to their cause and it does mean Wolves are now unbeaten in two, which could be the start of a prosperous run, and so long as they avoid defeat on Sunday, Wolves will equal their longest unbeaten run this season of three games with at least a point in this contest. 

The stumbling block, when deciding whether or not to have a punt on Wolves, is just where and how their goals will be scored. Their strikers simply aren’t cut out for the Premiership, even Kevin Doyle who has been their shining light this season, and this has been evident all season. The Wolves’ have scored just 19 league goals this season, averaging under a-goal-a-game and their two goals at Hull last Sunday ended a four match run without scoring a league goal. However, their goals on Sunday weren’t without a bit of good fortune, with their first being a freaky own goal and their second coming from the spot. So, in reality, Wolves still haven’t scored from open play in over 450 minutes of Premiership football.

We feel it’s asking too much of Wolves to win at St. Andrews this Sunday as we can’t see them scoring to make this a competitive affair. Their best option is playing for the draw, but they won’t do that as they will feel this is a fixture they have every right of winning. However, Birmingham have one of the leanest defensive records in the league, home and away, and it will take some doing outscoring Birmingham on their own patch. Still, we mustn’t forget Wolves did produce one of the shocks of the season when they beat Tottenham 1-0 at White Hart Lane, so, miracles can happen?!

Match Verdict: Birmingham City to WIN – 1.85 Expekt

We don’t like backing draws unless it’s too close to call and we wouldn’t feel comfortable wasting any money on a Wolves punt so Birmingham get the nod to make a brisk return to winning ways at Wolves’ expense. We think it will be close, with another one goal margin victory perhaps on the cards for the home side, but we can’t see Wolves breaking down a tough and robust Birmingham defence, and then sticking it past one of the goalkeepers of the season, Joe Hart, and so the preference is for Birmingham City of whom don’t score too many goals themselves but one goal on Sunday really should be enough to see off a weak looking Wolves.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 1.85 Expekt

Draw – 3.50 Boylesports

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 5.00 Bet365

SoccerBetting Value Pick: Birmingham City to WIN by 1 Goal – 3.60 Bet365