Birmingham City V Chelsea odds

 

Birmingham City V Chelsea

Saturday, 20th November – 15:00 (GMT)
Venue: St Andrews

 

Birmingham City

League Position: 18th
League Form: WDDLD

The rock-solid figure of Blues defender Roger Johnson had been a calming presence at the back for Birmingham during their successful stint in the Premiership last season, where they comfortably fended off the threat of relegation, but the centre-half has warned against his team-mates taking Saturday’s opponents Chelsea lightly despite the league leaders arriving at St Andrews on the back of a miserable run which has seen Carlo Ancelotti’s charges win just one of their last four away matches in the league.

Birmingham themselves aren’t exactly in tip-top shape either, with Blues manager Alex McLeish having seen his players register just two league wins in their opening thirteen matches – A dire start to their league campaign which has resulted in last season’s surprise package ending up acclimatising with the relegation zone far earlier than anticipated nor planned. However, one attribute McLeish has instilled in his team during his time with the St Andrews club is resilience, and the former Scotland manager is hoping to see more of those resilient, steely qualities which made them so difficult to beat at home last season.

Despite watching their 18-match run without losing at home in the Premier League diminish before them at the hands of Everton back in October, Birmingham have bounced back in typically buoyant fashion by opening up another unbeaten run of two matches which include a hard-fought comeback draw against bottom of the league West Ham and a 2-0 victory over Blackpool, the latter courtesy of some outstanding tactical play by manager McLeish. However, on the whole, Birmingham’s form hasn’t been anywhere near good enough and they’ll somehow go about trying to win only their third league game of the season on Saturday when they play host to league leaders Chelsea, whom they held to a 0-0 draw at St Andrews in the league last term.

Fortunately for Blue boss Alex McLeish, Birmingham don’t have any fresh injuries concerns that I know of, although McLeish has demanded more from his Belarus ace, Alexander Hleb. The former Arsenal and Barcelona schemer hasn’t quite settled back in Premier League, with McLeish claiming Hleb is still adjusting to his new surroundings although needs to produce the goods sooner rather than later if he’s to become a permanent figure in Birmingham.

 

Chelsea

League Position: 1st
League Form: WWLWL

If we’re to believe the media, defending league champions Chelsea are in turmoil following their third league defeat of the campaign, their second in as many games. Ravaged by injuries, manager Carlo Ancelotti has had his inept squad exposed and is set to name one of the youngest benches the Premiership has ever seen on Saturday in the wake of recent injury blows to defensive duo Alex and John Terry, while Frank Lampard’s  return to first-team action has been set back a further three weeks, thus rubbing a little more salt into the Italian manager’s wounds.

We wouldn’t go as far as saying Chelsea are at breaking point, however they are falling apart at the seams. Defensively, Carlo Ancelotti has run out of options and will now need to rely on the Branislav Ivanovic and Paulo Ferreria partnership getting the Blues through a sticky patch of form which has seen them suffer two defeats in their last three league matches, as well as having their lead at the top chopped down to size. Ashley Cole could further hamper Ancelotti’s team selection this weekend as the left-back withdrew from England duty in midweek after collecting a knock in the humiliating 3-0 home defeat at the hands of Sunderland. Incidentally, that was the heaviest defeat Chelsea have suffered at Stamford Bridge in over eight years and considering it was against a Sunderland side who only recently were battered 5-1 in the Tyne-Wear Derby, the humbling will take some getting over.

The Blues now have nothing to fall back on now that their immaculate home record has vanished from beneath them, and with the squad down to the bare bones, key players either out injury or carrying worrying knocks of illnesses, a trip to Birmingham, where Chelsea encountered an array of problems on their previous trip last term, certainly isn’t what the doctor ordered. Then again, victory over an opponent which frustrated them last season would go some way to remedying the problem at hand, which at the moment will be low morale. At the end of their match with Sunderland last Sunday, Chelsea looked so disenchanted is what frightening. After the third goal went in, in calamitous fashion we might add, not a single word was spoken. Without Terry to bark orders and let everyone know when mistakes were made, to basically keep everyone on their toes, Chelsea just aren’t the same side. Add the absence of Lampard in midfield and the under conditioning of Didier Drogba and what you have is a Chelsea side no longer boasting any sort of backbone.

On the back of such a dire results, utterly embarrassing for those which paid good money inside the stadium, and I do mean GOOD money, Chelsea surely aren’t worth backing at odds-on? To stamp my case further, the Blues have only won one of their last four away encounters and even that rare slice of away fortune was thoroughly;y undeserved. A 2-1 win away to Blackburn is their only win in their last four away league matches, a game in which Blackburn battered Chelsea for large periods and even took the lead through the uninspiring figure of Benjjani. Ivanovic let them off the hook with a late winner but it doesn’t do anywhere near enough to cover over the large cracks which have appeared in Chelsea’s away game, while those cracks are now beginning to creep into their overall game, with the walls close to coming down. Defeat on Saturday would certainly provide Carlo Ancelotti with plenty of food for thought, especially as a second consecutive barren weekend could spell the end to their season-long romance with the top of the table. And you not what’s scary of all? Another lose wouldn’t be all that surprising and is by no means out of the question.

 

Match Prediction: Draw – 3.75 Ladbrokes

It is top versus third from bottom and despite as much as 15 points separating the two sides before kick-off, I just wouldn’t feel comfortable selecting or backing Chelsea at the moment. Following their most emphatic home defeat for over eight years and against an opponent no-one would have ever dreamed would be the ones inflicting all the damage, morale low, confidence lost and key players missing… Chelsea are a scary proposition right now considering they’re such slim odds. Yes, Birmingham may well start proceedings inside the relegation zone but if I was a Premier League manager, Birmingham’s St Andrews stadium is one of the last places I would want to take my depleted, lost for wear ranks.

Only Everton have managed to etch out a league win at St Andrews this season, with Birmingham having previously been undefeated at home for their last 18 home encounters in the Premier League, whereas Chelsea have conjured just one away win from their last four away matches and even that came largely against the run of play and wasn’t entirely deserved. Moreover, Blackburn are the only team to have conceded against the Blues at home since the middle of September, with Chelsea failing to score at Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool. Will Birmingham add their name to the list?

Selected Bet: Under 2.5 Goals – 1.83 Bet365

The worrying thing for this bet is actually Chelsea’s defence, something we didn’t think we would be criticising like this considering goalkeeper Petr Cech has kept eight clean sheets in his opening thirteen league matches this season. However, he had a full-strength defence in front of him for all eight of those matches, whereas Saturday’s line-up will be makeshift. No John Terry or Alex, meaning Ivanovic and Ferreira will start at centre-half – Let’s hope they’re in the same postcode this week, let alone the same wavelength as we trust Birmingham to make this a close, evenly fought contest.

 

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 5.50 WilliamHill
Draw – 3.75 Ladbrokes
Chelsea – 1.73 Bet365

 

Birmingham City V Chelsea

 

Saturday 26^th December (Boxing Day) – 12:45 GMT (Sky Sports 1)

 

 

 

Birmingham City

 

League Position: 7th

Recent Form: WWWWD

 

After watching Birmingham on the opening day of the season, in a game they lost 1-0 against the current champions, Man Utd, we were very confident that they wouldn’t have any problems bypassing this season in terms of survival. However, not even we envisaged the sort of run that would not only see Birmingham take huge strides away from the relegation zone but also into European contention. Alex Mcleish’s men have now moved up into seventh position, just a point off the Europa League spots but, more crucially, twelve points off the bottom three. They are certainly on course to complete their objective of avoiding relegation but will the festive season bring about some rare cases of complacency from what has been a solid Birmingham outfit this season.

 

Birmingham will face arguably their biggest test thus far on Saturday as they welcome Chelsea to St. Andrews. McLeish has already pitted his wits against Sir Alex Ferguson (Man Utd), Arsene Wenger (Arsenal) Rafael Benitez (Liverpool) and Mark Hughes (Man City at the time), and has faired extremely well on all four occasions. However, Birmingham are still looking for that elusive win over a ‘Big Four’ team as the best they’ve managed this season is two draws with Liverpool and Man City.

  

If you’re looking for bad omens then look no further than Birmingham’s terrible record over ‘Big Four’ opponents. They are on a drastic run, stretching back over four years, since their last win over the almighty Big Four teams. In the 2004/2005 Premiership season, Birmingham beat Liverpool twice, home and away, and Arsenal at home, but have since failed to record a victory, failing in sixteen attempts. That means Birmingham are without a win over one of the so called ‘Big Four’ in sixteen games but, with the form they are in, who would back against them ending their drought against a Chelsea side on the rocks at present – Us, of course.

  

The basis of Birmingham’s success this season has been built upon solid defensive foundations. Joe Hart in the City goal has been immense, keeping four clean sheets at home in eight appearances. With the World Cup just around the corner, there is no better incentive for a young keeper to pull out all the stops and he has been doing just that for Birmingham City this season. However, this solid defence, one that has conceded just 18 goals this season, less than the likes of Arsenal & Liverpool, has enabled Birmingham to scrape through games with just a single goal. In the eight victories for Birmingham this season, all eight have been by a narrow one goal margin, which just goes to show how tight they leave it.

  

St. Andrews is quickly becoming a happy hunting ground for the Blues as they’ve fallen to defeat only twice there all season. They are unbeaten at home in their last five appearances, winning four and drawing one, but Chelsea will be their hardest home fixture to date. City do, though, boast an incredibly strong goalscoring record at home of 8-5, and although the amount of goals scored isn’t all that impressive, the fact that they’ve conceded just a measly five, the joint best home defence in the league, just goes to show how difficult a side they are to break down at St. Andrews.

 

 

 

Chelsea

 

League Position: 1st

Recent Form: WLDWD

  

Stamford Bridge is rocking at present after just one win in four games for Chelsea. They started the season like a train on fire and appeared to be in cruise control at one stage, but their weaknesses, ones we weren’t even sure existed just a month or so ago, are rapidly coming to light and it’s their defence where all their problems lye. Carlo Ancelotti’s new year resolution will be to reinforce what has been a vulnerable Chelsea back four of late but will he have enough strength in depth to get the club through a gruelling fixture period.

 

The answer to that silly question is fairly simple – Yes! It’s quite unbelievable how much quality Ancelotti has at his disposal. However, he hasn’t been getting the best of out them of late, especially his defenders, as Chelsea have been well below par in their recent outings. Their apparent defensive issues came to light, once again, at Upton Park last Sunday in a game which was widely expected to of the way of the home side, Chelsea. However, Chelsea were extremely poor on the day and looked an ordinary outfit throughout most of the game, and were it not for a ridiculous penalty decision given in their favour, Chelsea could of left Upton Park with their tails between their legs.

  

Chelsea’s performance at Upton Park, home of West Ham United, was one of the poorest from them we’ve seen this season. There was no urgency in their play, the pace of their attacks was lethargic at times, whilst their defence was at sixes and sevens, and has been for several weeks now. It’s clear that this poor run of one win in four games, league wise, is affecting the confidence of the players and, in particular, their defence, which has been all over the place recently. Defenders aren’t even marking strikers anymore, the full-backs are getting skinned with ease but, more staggeringly, is that there is no communication and no organisation at the back, whatsoever. John Terry, not only the Chelsea skipper but also England’s, has gone missing of late in games and it could be a case that his off the pitch antics regarding something to do with ticket touting could be affecting his performances, although he’s been under performing for some time now.  

 

It’s been a poor run of form and the confidence in camp won’t be great but Chelsea do still have, by far and away, one of the better squads in the league and do still appear too strong for Birmingham on paper. However, their performances of late have been shoddy, which is unlike Chelsea, and it’s hard to back them with a great deal of confidence knowing that another ugly display isn’t out of the question. Still, the talent is certainly there, word class at that, it’s just a case of whether Carlo Ancelotti can raise the spirit of the camp as the Chelsea dressing room does need a big confidence lift.

 

 

 

Head-to-Head (Last 10):

 

Birmingham City W: 0 Chelsea W: 6 Draw: 2

 

It’s basically been one way traffic when ever these two have met, bar two occasions. Chelsea have beaten Birmingham at St. Andrews three times out of a possible four, with the only exception being a 0-0 draw back in 2006. The last times these two met was back in the 2007.2008 campaign and it was Chelsea who completed a league double over Birmingham, the second time they had achieved such a feat in four attempts, beating by one goal in both encounters; 3-2 at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea) and 1-0 at St. Andrews.

 

 

 

Match Verdict: Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

 

Birmingham are on a spirited run but we can see all their hard work coming to an end in Saturday’s home clash with Chelsea. Birmingham will give Chelsea a run for their money, though, and certainly won’t roll over. In fact, if Chelsea have another bad day at the office then a shock could very well be on the cards. We can’t, however, see Chelsea putting in yet another abysmal display and a clinical Chelsea is in the closest somewhere, eager to let rip. Whether it will be against a stubborn Birmingham City is another question but Chelsea are a handsome price, considering Birmingham are a promoted side, to comply at St. Andrews in a venue they’ve won three times at in four attempts.

 

 

 

Match Odds:

 

Birmingham City – 7.50 Coral

Draw – 4.00 Bet365

Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

 

 

Fancy a challenge?! – All of Birmingham’s eight victories have been by a one goal margin, whereas just four of Chelsea’s thirteen wins have been by the same one goal margin. However, a one goal victory is Chelsea’s most common victory margin but, with Birmingham boasting all the form, which team, if either, will win by a narrow one goal?

 

Birmingham City to WIN by 1 goal – 10.00 BlueSquare

Chelsea to WIN by 1 goal – 3.50 Bet365

 

Our challenge pick – Chelsea!

 

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For those of you who fancy yourself against Matt, feel free to send us your challenge selection and those who do beat Matt will get a mention on the related preview. There is no actual prize up for grabs… just bragging rights?!

 

Send us your challenge pick to: challenge@soccerbetting.info