FA Cup: Quarter-Final

Portsmouth V Birmingham City

Kick-Off: Saturday, 6^th March – 12:30 GMT

TV Coverage: ITV1

Portsmouth

FA Cup Odds: 20/1 Bet365

The inevitable took place last Friday as Portsmouth FC entered into administration becoming the very first Premiership club to ever do so. It was a miserable day for Portsmouth fans but it was also a low-point for English football as yet another one of England’s old-timers begins its predicted slumber down the leagues. However, while the Pompey players could be forgiven for feeling a tad sorry for themselves they instead went and put a valiant shift in up at Turf Moor, with a 2-1 victory being their just rewards for a spirited performance after a miserable week and year for the club.

The FA will soon dock Portsmouth nine points for entering into administration and that would leave the club almost certain to suffer relegation, if that wasn’t the expected destination for Pompey anyway. At the time this preview was written (Monday, 29^th Feb) Portsmouth were still rock-bottom of the Premier League but a more reasonable five points off safety. With the point penalty, however, Portsmouth are expected to fall a further nine points off safety, leaving the club need to claw back a fourteen point deficit just to stay in the Premiership. While there maybe still thirty-three points still up for grabs, Portsmouth’s death looks assured as they’ve not shown anywhere near enough form to suggest they will win the vast majority of their remaining fixtures in order to stay up – So prepare to wave goodbye to a rare South Coast Premiership side.

As far as betting on them in Saturday’s affair, it’s hard to weigh up their chances especially after their weekend heroics at Burnley. Many, including us, thought administration was the nail in the coffin and that the players would now lose all their remaining spirit and belief and simply roll over. They proved us and everyone else wrong with a whole-hearted display away at Burnley, what was just their second away win of the season. More importantly, however, that shock victory ended their baron run of eight league games without a win but they do return back to a venue where they’ve not enjoyed that winning feeling in either of their previous games at Fratton Park.

The South Coast has been the setting for better tidings though, with three of their fives league wins coming down at Fratton Park and Portsmouth losing two less games their. It’s nothing to write home about but it’s these small positives that will keep the fans flickering flames alive… just. The problem being, though, is that Portsmouth have managed just two draws in their last four at home, with the other two ending in disappointing defeats. However, Avram Grant will feel his sides have much more of a chance of picking up points at a venue where the players have clearly found more settling, with sixteen of their twenty-three league games coming in home fixtures. That’s a big difference and it’s also worth pointing out that Portsmouth have scored in each of their last nine home games, although on just three of those occasions did Pompey surpass one goal, so where there is a glimmer of hope we’ve quickly jumped in to extinguish it. Sorry Pompey fans!

However, their league form should go out of the window in many respects as the FA Cup is now far more significant in that a place in the Semi-Finals at Wembley is up for grabs. We do have huge concerns over their defence, one which has been shaky throughout the course of the season, but they’ve shown so much heart and character of late that we wouldn’t deter anyone from backing Portsmouth to defy the odds and keep this unfortunate dream/nightmare alive. One thing we will say is the FA Cup is now the teams last chance to repay the fans for their support throughout what has been a heartbreaking season. They will have the majority of the neutrals behind them, but Portsmouth will be going out to win on Saturday purely for the fans sake.

Birmingham City

FA Cup Odds: 12/1 bWin

Alex McLeish will surely be licking his lips at the prospect of taking his surprise package of Birmingham all the way to the Semi-Final at Wembley. Their opponents are a cash-strapped, knocking on deaths door Portsmouth, with the only real stumbling block for them being their lack of home advantage. It’s a crucial factor as were this tie to be at St. Andrews, Birmingham would be the firm favourites. They aren’t, however, and it’s up to the players to silence the Pompey crowd in what should be a subdued atmosphere but certainly won’t be as the fans give it one last hoorah in a bid to drive their ’sick’ club into a memorable Semi-Final.

A Birmingham side who sit eighth in the Premiership will be supremely confident over their chances of winning on Saturday after a sensational season up till this point. They club are in fact pushing for a European finish, not that Alex McLeish will want to believe it. However, whereas Portsmouth have their minds distracted by so many issues; league position and money concerns one of a few, Birmingham have next to none and can place their full attention on their next big task at hand: Winning Saturday;s Quarter-Final clash down on the South coast.

While this isn’t an away fixture in the league, it’s worth point out that Birmingham have been less effective on their travels this season. At home Birmingham have accumulated a total of 26 points, whereas they’ve amassed nearly half-as-less as that away from home, with 14 points collected so far from away outings. It’s still very respectable for a club which were fancied for relegation at the start of the term by some punters, not us mind, but it does highlight a minor flaw, with their slightly lacklustre away efforts leaving them a tad exposed down South.

Moreover, Birmingham have lost their last three away fixtures whilst back in Premiership action, which isn’t ideal form heading into an away tie in the FA Cup, but, to our amazement, all of Birmingham’s three victories in the competition thus far came away from St. Andrews, with victory’s at Nott’m Forest, Everton and Derby County, all of which were by a familiar one goal margin. Their solid outlook on games has clearly paid dividends in this competition so far and who would back against them making it four away wins on the trot in this competition by beating Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Saturday?

Match Verdict: Portsmouth to WIN – 2.62 Bet365

The answer to the above question is us as we feel it could be the last memorable game down at Fratton Park for quite some time on Saturday, and we only hope it’s one to remember for all the right reasons for the home crowd. It’s hard to imagine the players can even focus at this moment in time but they shown last Saturday their heads are in the right frame of mind and that all they’re interested in once they get onto that pitch is winning matches, or at least trying to their utmost to do so. They weren’t classy on Saturday, nor were they entirely convincing – far from it – but they were gutsy and we will be one of many around the country to lend our sofa support on Saturday.

Our Bet: Over 2.5 Goals – 2.38 WilliamHill

There is only one outcome that would let us done on Saturday, and that’s a 1-1 draw. Portsmouth haven’t failed to score in a home fixture since September, while their defence looks so frail that Birmingham would have to be drastically poor not to score on Saturday, so goals look to be assured in a fixture that would normally look dull on paper. Portsmouth were fired up for their last round clash against Southampton but were extremely sluggish getting out of the blocks. A similarly poor start would almost certainly see Birmingham clinch an early lead. However, Birmingham have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their previous two away outings in the cup and so goals looks a logical outcome. Two teams who will do all they can to win but two sides who will struggle to keep it neat and tidy at the back – Bring on the 3 Goals or More we say!

Match Odds:

Portsmouth – 2.62 Bet365

Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Birmingham City – 2.75 PaddyPower

Birmingham City V Wigan Athletic

Saturday, 27^th February – 15:00 GMT

Birmingham City

League Position: 10th

Recent Form: LDWLL

Alex McLeish will be hoping Birmingham’s superb home form will stand his players in good stead as the take on a hapless Wigan Athletic on Saturday afternoon at St. Andrews, with the aim being to extend their unbeaten run at home to ten games. Not since September 26^th have Birmingham lost a home fixture – a streak stretching nearly five months – and they’ll surely feel supremely confident of at least reaching double figures with the visit of Wigan this Saturday in a fixture most punters will make them worthy match favourites.

The Premiership’s most improved team have been punching well above their weight in terms of results and their league position for a while now, but finally, Birmingham are starting to show signs of complacency, something we did predict would happen once their euphoric fifteen game unbeaten run came to end. On Saturday, Birmingham fell to their ninth defeat of the season, which does sound an awful lot for a side that went almost half of the current season without losing a game, when losing at Craven Cottage to a very solid Fulham side. It was a game Birmingham played very well in parts and actually went in at half-time with a lead. However, some stunning strikes from Fulham put Birmingham to the sword and the travellers that day eventually left the capital with nothing to show for their spirited efforts.

The defeat at the weekend to Fulham was their second on the bounce after losing eleven days earlier at West Ham. It was, however, yet another away defeat and they can take comfort from the fact they’ve been far more solid and consistent in front of their home fans than opposing supporters this term. Six of their ten league wins this season have come at St. Andrews, while the difference between the amounts lost at home and away is huge, with Birmingham losing just twice at home compared to the seven defeats they’ve suffered on the road. We wouldn’t go as far as to say St. Andrews has become a fortress, as Birmingham don’t exactly play enthralling football there, nor do they put teams to the sword. They are, however, an extremely tough side to beat at home, with only Aston Villa and Bolton managing such a feat this season. Even the likes of Chelsea & Arsenal have failed to get the better of a resilient Birmingham on their own patch, so what chance do their opponents, whom are having to fend off a relegation battle, have of joining this VIP list if you like of rare sides to have beaten Birmingham at home this season?

Alex McLeish will certainly pinpoint this fixture as one his team should secure all three points in; simply because Birmingham are very strong at home, while their opponents are pretty much useless all around. The small downer is that Birmingham have won just one of their previous four home games, with even that solitary and lonely victory coming against lowly Wolves by virtue of a late Kevin Philip’s double. But, however, along this run are creditable draws with Chelsea, Man Utd & Tottenham Hotspur, and so, if Birmingham can hold their own against those sort of sides, some of the best in the country, then they should surely make mince meat of a Wigan side that were comfortably beaten by Tottenham Hotspur over the weekend.

Wigan Athletic

League Position: 15th

Recent Form: LDDDL

While Birmingham are boasting a strong run of form at home, unbeaten in their last four, Wigan unwillingly have the very opposite in that they can’t buy a win wherever they go and are getting beaten by just about everyone, with even League Two’s very own Notts County getting in on the act this year. Their 3-0 home defeat at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday afternoon was their thirteenth defeat of the season, four more than their match day opponents, but add this to the fact Wigan did lose the reverse meeting at The DW stadium and they really look a terrible betting proposition. Surprises do happen though, but you’d have to feel a minor miracle is perhaps required in order to drive Wigan towards their first league win since the middle of January.

Wigan were resoundingly beaten at the weekend when losing 3-0 to Tottenham, although it could have been a different story had Defoe’s first goal been chalked off rightly for off-side. However, the dubious goal stood and that typified Wigan’s season in that everything is going against them right now. To be fair, they rarely threatened Gomes in the Spurs goal and didn’t look as though they would snatch a point in a contest we didn’t fancy them did get much out of if truth be told. That is now the sixth game in a row where the Latics haven’t managed a win, and these pointless games are beginning to drag Wigan closer to the bottom three. 

The strange thing is Wigan might actually appreciate this trip away from The DW as the condition of their DW pitch is terrible due to both themselves and their local Rugby team using the pitch at alternating times. How any side can get the ball down and play football on that farm like ground is beyond me. This Wigan side, whom under the silky Guidance of a Spanish manager who desperately wants his players to play attractive on-the-ground football, will perhaps take to a much better surface at St. Andrews and could actually turn a few heads with a half-decent performance if they apply themselves correctly.

Wigan are a team which play their football completely on the ground, with slick inter-changing and slick through balls. They don’t have the height or aerial experience up front to really make use of the long ball tactic and it was the main reason why they didn’t compete on Saturday as they rarely got a shot in on goal. However, they should take to the St. Andrews surface quite nicely. While it’s not the best footballing surface in the world, it’s a whole lot better than theirs at current and we think Wigan might finally come out to play on Saturday. After all, they’ve scored slightly more goals away from The DW this season, and have won just as many games.

Match Verdict: Birmingham to WIN – 2.00 Bet365

It’s hard to oppose a Birmingham side with plenty of solid home form and momentum, so we haven’t. They don’t give the opposition any time or space on the bal, they force you to make costly mistakes and they punish you in the game defining moments. They’ll get a few chances on Saturday and we’re banking on them taking at least one of them, as, in reality, one goal would probably be enough considering how poor Wigan have been of late. However, the danger is Wigan will be playing on a smoother surface now, with no bumpy pitch of mole hills getting in their way. If they can somehow return to their free-flowing selves then perhaps a surprise could be on the cards. However, their form isn’t great, it’s actually very poor, while the confidence levels of the players must be at an all time low as the relegation looms over them after a six game run without a win, and so preference is for a more consistent Birmingham City.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 2.00 Bet365

Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Wigan Athletic – 4.30 Boylesports

SoccerBetting Value Tip: Birmingham City to WIN by 1 Goal – 3.75 Bet365

Fulham V Birmingham City

Saturday, 20^th February – 12:45 GMT (Sky Sports 1)

Fulham

League Position: 10th

Recent Form: LLWDW

Fulham gave their form a much needed boost with victory over Notts County in the FA Cup on Sunday. Despite a nervy start from The Cottagers, Fulham eventually ran out comfortable and worthy winners in a 4-0 victory which sent them in the quarter-finals where Tottenham Hotspur or Bolton lay in waiting. However, it’s back to the Premiership now for Fulham and they will aim to build upon a three match unbeaten run, a run which is beginning to overshadow what was a dreadful month of January.  

Fulham are once again building up ahead of steam in the league and will go about reinforcing their top ten status on Saturday when they seek out their fourth win in five games, this does include their weekend success in the FA Cup. Two of those were in the league though, with victories coming against Portsmouth (1-0) and Burnley (2-0), both were to NIL but they were also both at Craven Cottage, a stadium which has been a happy hunting ground for them but a graveyard for some of the leagues biggest teams.

We think just about every Fulham fan has come to terms with the fact that Fulham aren’t the best away side in the division and that the vast majority of their points this season will and have come at home, at a fairly small Craven Cottage. However, this cosy little cottage of theirs hasn’t seen too many home defeats this season, just the three in fact, and to hear that Fulham have lost just once in ten home outings is an outstanding achievement for a club which was so regularly battling to avoid relegation previous campaigns. It also goes to show just how far Roy Hodgeson has taken this Fulham side in such a short space of time.

As far as this fixture goes, against what is a resilient Birmingham City, Fulham do have solid claims for the win but will have to work mighty hard to earn all three points. Their opponents are a stubborn side which tend not to give away cheap goals. Much like Fulham at home in fairness. However, we would give Fulham the edge simply because they can be a match for anyone on their day when at Craven Cottage, and the proof is in the pudding with victories over Liverpool, Manchester United & Everton this season.

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: DLDWL 

We briefly praised Roy Hodgeson for his efforts but it’s nothing in comparison to the job Alex McLeish has done with a budgeted Birmingham side, guiding them into the upper tier of the Premiership table. Just to hear that Birmingham are two places above Fulham in the table would make any Birmingham fan proud but defeat for McLeish & Co on Saturday would seem them fall below their match day opponents and possibly lye in 10^th position for the remainder of the week, which I’m sure Birmingham fans could live with but it’s something they’d like to avoid at all costs.

We’ve been praising Birmingham for their work rate and effort for months now but the cracks are starting to appear and their immense middle part of the season could be just as well as the chinks in their armour start to show. Since relinquishing their unbeaten status of fifteen games without defeat, twelve in the league, Birmingham have won just one of three, Winning 1, Drawing 1 and Losing 1. While this may not appear at all bad, nor concerning, that one draw really should have been a defeat while their latest display was that of a well below par side when they lost 2-0 at West Ham United. A team struggling near the foot of the table.

Don’t get us wrong, we’re far from panicking. It’s just that now they’ve lost all their momentum, their confidence appears to have sapped right out of them and they don’t appear to have this winning edge to them any more. However, one thing we will credit them on is their never-give-up attitude, one which has earned them valuable points in recent fixtures alone. They had to search within for a second wind in their two most recent home games with Tottenham Hotspur & Wolves. The former seen Birmingham nod home an injury time equaliser to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first since in well over four months, while the latter seen them claw back a one goal deficit to win a game they probably didn’t deserve to win 2-1.

The dampener, though, was their defeat at Upton Park and we aren’t quite sure how Birmingham will respond to that defeat. However, they did answer with a win at Derby County on Saturday, albeit pulling off another comeback when coming from a goal down to win once again by a 2-1 scoreline. However, while all these fight backs look good on paper and do bring your group of players closer together, there will come a time when going a goal down will result in game over and this really could be the case at Craven Cottage. Fulham have yet to drop any points from a winning position at home this season, which just spells out the importance of not conceding the first goal if you’re a Birmingham fan.

Match Verdict: Fulham to WIN – 2.15 bWin

These two teams could quite easily cancel each other out as they both have similar qualities in that they’re both extremely solid outfits, reliable in defence and clinical in attack. Mistakes don’t often crop up in either sides play but we feel home advantage will separate the two on Saturday. Fulham boast one of the strongest home records in England and will take some beating in front of their home fans. The only negative points from their end if their Europa League clash on Thursday night and whether Hodgeson puts out a strong side. Then again, Fulham should still be equipped and fit enough to handle a home fixture and we quite fancy their chances of winning their fourth home fixture on the bounce and sending Birmingham to their first set of back-to-back defeats since October.

Match Odds:

Fulham – 2.15 bWin

Draw – 3.30 Bet365

Birmingham City – 3.75 SkyBet

SoccerBetting Value Tip: Fulham to be winning at Half-Time – 2.90 SportingBet

Derby County V Birmingham City

Saturday, 13^th February – 15:00 GMT

Derby County

FA Cup Outright Odds: 250/1 bWin

The Rams will be looking to put their poor league campaign to one side on Saturday as they entertain Premiership side Birmingham City in the fifth round of the FA Cup. It’s been a stop-start sort of season for Derby County fans, mainly just stop in fairness, but, however, their form of late has greatly improved, especially at home, so perhaps a big victory is in the offing as Derby aim to put their name into the draw for the quarter-finals.

It’s been a poor season for Derby County and their fans as their dreams of promotion back to the top flight appear just that; a dream, with The Rams currently languishing down in 13^th position in the league table. Just as close to the bottom as they are to the top. However, they are on the road to redemption after a three match unbeaten run in The Championship. A run which the fans will be hoping just might be the springboard the players need to put in a big display on Saturday. Hopefully a winning one! They’ve now won two of their last three in the league, wins which were both mighty impressive as they came over the top two teams in the division; beating Nottingham Forest 1-0 & Newcastle United 3-0, with their stunning and emphatic 3-0 win over the Magpies their most recent success.

The Rams were sublime in midweek as they obliterated Newcastle’s unbeaten league run of fifteen games with a 3-0 win at Pride Park. That was Derby’s second successive win at home and Pride Park has been the setting for many happy memory’s this season, just about all of them in fact, with eight of their ten league wins coming in front of their home fans – A big plus point for any potential Derby backer. However, Stephen Bywater in the Derby goal hasn’t celebrated too many clean sheets this season, even at home, with their two against Nott’m Forest & Newcastle United being their first since October.

Derby really need a platform – a big result – so they can build a serious play-off bid. Victory on Saturday, over the Premiership’s surprise package, would surely give them that but their defence does make them a precarious proposition against a side which often punishes lacklustre defending. Still, Derby’s two previous victories in this tournament just to get this far did come at Pride Park, so perhaps home is where the heart as far as Derby are concerned.

Birmingham City

FA Cup Outright Odds: 15/1 PaddyPower

Alex McLeish must be licking his lips at the prospect of making a rare quarter-final appearance in the world’s oldest domestic cup competition. To get this far is an achievement in itself but, considering they’ve been granted a generous looking fixture here, you would have to feel exit now would be heartbreak for the Birmingham team in what looks their easiest fixture in this competition to date. However, while the players will be supremely confident over their chances of winning Saturday’s clash, they mustn’t let their arrogance become an issue, and we don’t think it will.

Birmingham have been by far and away the most improved team this season, arguably in the country. To go on a fifteen match unbeaten run in all competitions in just your first spell in the Premiership, albeit not their maiden one after gaining promotion on what seems an ‘every-other-year’ basis, is outstanding and a credit to every member of staff at the club. Much of their success has been largely down to their solid set up, their rock-hard defence and their ability to win tight games with scrappy and ugly goals. Well, against a Derby side who have been very tidy of late, Birmingham may need to show all the qualities that has made them such a success this season if they are to progress into the quarter-final draw.

After losing their grip on their twelve match unbeaten league run via defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, many were apprehensive about how Birmingham would fare in their following fixtures. However, they responded will, possibly not with their performances but certainly with results, earning a home draw with Tottenham Hotspur (1-1) and beating Wolves (2-1) at the weekend. However, their displays in both will be seen as a double-edged sword as Birmingham weren’t up to scratch in either but pulled off a valiant comeback in both. They have, though, conceded the opening goal in both of their last two outings and it took the players an awful long time to respond in both encounters. Now, Derby have been very clinical of late, much like Birmingham have throughout the season, and if Birmingham do concede the opening goal then there might not be anyway back for this never-give-up Birmingham side.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that Birmingham have had to come through two tough away fixtures to get this far having beaten Nottingham Forest at The City Ground during Forest’s lengthy unbeaten period before then pulling another rabbit out of the hat with victory at Goodison Park, beating Everton 2-1.

How they got here?

Derby County

Drew Millwall 1-1 (A)

Beat Millwall via a Penalty Shoot-out 5-3 (H)

Beat Doncaster Rovers 1-0 (H)

Birmingham City

Beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 (A)

Beat Everton 2-1 (A)

Match Verdict: Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

This is a fixture you’ll do best to avoid as we’ve found it extremely difficult to split the two. Derby have hit a decent bit of form, winning their last two at home, while Birmingham, although have been shaky of late, are still proving a tough nut to crack. The away side have a never-die attitude which has stood them in good stead in the Premiership and might be why they will be the winners of this contest on Saturday. However, their performances haven’t been at the level which seen them enjoy a fifteen match unbeaten run and we feel another below par display could see them exit this tournament at the fifth round stage. Then again, after watching Derby throughout most of the season, they could quite easily turn the Rams over. This is, quite literally, anyone’s game.

Match Odds:

Derby County – 3.50 SkyBet

Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Birmingham City – 2.30 Expekt

SoccerBetting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals – 1.65 Expekt

Birmingham City V Wolverhampton Wanderers

Sunday, 7^th February – 13:30 GMT

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: DWDLD

Finally… After fifteen games, twelve of which were Premiership fixtures, Birmingham fell to defeat as Chelsea ended the clubs most impressive run in it’s history by beating Birmingham 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, just over a week ago in what was a comfortable evening for the London outfit. However, that defeat was so nearly followed up with another when they went mere minutes away from falling to their second defeat in quick succession at home to Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, eventually drawing 1-1 via an injury time equaliser. The defeat to Chelsea has perhaps got the Birmingham squad rocking but they have a very easy assignment on Sunday when they aim to make a return to winning ways by welcoming the only team that finished above them in The Championship last season – Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Alex McLeish didn’t have much luck in January, with Birmingham not managing a win that month and several of their bids for some high profile individuals being turned down by various clubs. The Scotsman has quickly come to the conclusion that Birmingham aren’t as strong in the final third as he would like. However, he could only watch on with despair as bids for Ryan Babel & Roman Pavlyuchenko got rejected by Liverpool & Tottenham respectively. To be fair, it wasn’t surprising that McLeish did target some forwards as Birmingham, despite previously enjoying a glorious unbeaten run of twelve games in the league, have looked very weak up top in front of goal, with the last time Birmingham scored two or more in a Premiership fixture coming back in December when they beat Blackburn 2-1 at St. Andrews. They have since failed to surpass the one goal marker in their last six league games and their finishing on Sunday against Spurs was the evidence to back up their poor goalscoring antics this season.

Although their unbeaten run did come to an end a little over a week ago, Birmingham are still undefeated at St. Andrews since the 26^th September, 2009 when they lost 2-1 to Bolton. They haven’t lost a league fixture in front of their home fans in eight games; Winning 4, Drawing 4. However, although this home run of theirs is still alight, they haven’t won at home since the middle of December, drawing their last three home fixtures. Then again, all were against stiff opposition; Chelsea (0-0), Man Utd (1-1) & their latest being Tottenham Hotspur (1-1). All three draws would look worthy results on anyone’s results list but Wolves are one of the weakest teams in the league and questions will be asked of their mental toughness were they not to win on Sunday as doubts will arise over whether Birmingham are still feeling the affects of their Chelsea heartache. 

On face value, and the way Birmingham have gone about their business for most of this season, this should be a home win, although we don’t think it will be a walk in the park as Birmingham don’t win games comfortably. We’ve mentioned this fact, or run, so many times and until it changes we won’t stop mentioning it as it’s a possible moneymaker – All of Birmingham’s nine victories in the league have been by a 1 goal margin, with six being 1-0 wins. That’s a staggering statistic as you could of made a fortune betting on Birmingham to win by one goal this season. Also, Birmingham did beat Wolves 1-0 at Molineux earlier in the season… We think a predictable pattern has been formed!

Wolverhampton Wanderers

League Position: 17th

Recent Form: LLLDD

This losing trend of theirs has come to end and has been halted by a pair of draws, two decent ones as well. Mick McCarthy will pin his hopes of his sides draws with Liverpool & Hull City building some momentum as they will need plenty of it heading to St. Andrews. The incentive though, as if they needed one with the club so perilously close to the relegation zone, is to avenge the defeat they suffered at the hands of Birmingham back in November when they lost 1-0 at Molineux. However, that defeat catapulted Wolves into winning three of their following four league games and they’ll be hoping a win over Birmingham will send them on their way onto another point baring run.

Wolves have had to work damn hard in their recent outings, frustrating Liverpool at Molineux in a goalless draw and then giving Hull a good scare at The KC last Sunday, earning a 2-2 draw. The draw wasn’t the best of results as it was a game they could of won on paper, but it did, nevertheless, add a vital point to their cause and it does mean Wolves are now unbeaten in two, which could be the start of a prosperous run, and so long as they avoid defeat on Sunday, Wolves will equal their longest unbeaten run this season of three games with at least a point in this contest. 

The stumbling block, when deciding whether or not to have a punt on Wolves, is just where and how their goals will be scored. Their strikers simply aren’t cut out for the Premiership, even Kevin Doyle who has been their shining light this season, and this has been evident all season. The Wolves’ have scored just 19 league goals this season, averaging under a-goal-a-game and their two goals at Hull last Sunday ended a four match run without scoring a league goal. However, their goals on Sunday weren’t without a bit of good fortune, with their first being a freaky own goal and their second coming from the spot. So, in reality, Wolves still haven’t scored from open play in over 450 minutes of Premiership football.

We feel it’s asking too much of Wolves to win at St. Andrews this Sunday as we can’t see them scoring to make this a competitive affair. Their best option is playing for the draw, but they won’t do that as they will feel this is a fixture they have every right of winning. However, Birmingham have one of the leanest defensive records in the league, home and away, and it will take some doing outscoring Birmingham on their own patch. Still, we mustn’t forget Wolves did produce one of the shocks of the season when they beat Tottenham 1-0 at White Hart Lane, so, miracles can happen?!

Match Verdict: Birmingham City to WIN – 1.85 Expekt

We don’t like backing draws unless it’s too close to call and we wouldn’t feel comfortable wasting any money on a Wolves punt so Birmingham get the nod to make a brisk return to winning ways at Wolves’ expense. We think it will be close, with another one goal margin victory perhaps on the cards for the home side, but we can’t see Wolves breaking down a tough and robust Birmingham defence, and then sticking it past one of the goalkeepers of the season, Joe Hart, and so the preference is for Birmingham City of whom don’t score too many goals themselves but one goal on Sunday really should be enough to see off a weak looking Wolves.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 1.85 Expekt

Draw – 3.50 Boylesports

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 5.00 Bet365

SoccerBetting Value Pick: Birmingham City to WIN by 1 Goal – 3.60 Bet365

Birmingham City V Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday, 30^th January – 15:00 GMT

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: DDWDL

Now it gets interesting as Birmingham aim to bounce right back after suffering their first defeat in fifteen games. Their first in twelve Premiership outings. The task always looked far too big, even for the league most improved side, but it’s been apparent for a while that the players were thriving on this confidence booming run and now the spotlight really will be on them to see if the defeat at Chelsea does send Birmingham spiralling.

A large part of why Birmingham never came close to causing a upset at Stamford Bridge was Chelsea’s brillant start to the game and Birmingham’s willingness to allow Chelsea to strut their stuff for the entire first half. The home side were 2-0 up come the break and by the time Birmingham finally started to play the sort of football which had built such an impressive undefeated run it was too late. Alex Mcleish could only watch on come the end as his side lost 3-0, their first defeat in the league for over three months.

The hangover period now begins but they’ve been fortunate in that their next league game is a home fixture, although their opponents have regained their form after winning 2-0 in their last league outing, beating Fulham 2-0 at White Hart Lane. Moreover, Birmingham lost the reverse encounter with Tottenham 2-1, and so Spurs are on the verge of completing a league double over Birmingham. Two defeats on the spin after only enjoying the highs in recent months could have a devastating affect on team morale and so Mcleish will drill it home just how significant a game this is with Spurs and how important getting a result will be in terms of their season.

Although they were on the wrong end of a rare league low in midweek, we mustn’t forget that Birmingham haven’t lost a home fixture since the middle of September, eight home fixtures ago. They have since drawn three and won five and still boast very strong form heading into this tough fixture, albeit with a defeat firmly behind them. Moreover, the likes of Man City, Man Utd & Chelsea have all paid St. Andrews a visit this season, with only Man Utd actually finding Birmingham’s net, with both Chelsea & Man City failing to score. All were, however, draws.

Tottenham Hotspur

League Position: 4th

Recent Form: DWDLW

Tottenham, unlike their opponents, will be feeling great after overcoming a recent blip in results by stamping their authority in a game with Fulham, beating the Cottager’s 2-0 at White Hart Lane. That victory, one that came after a bitter draw with Leeds United, reinforced their top four bid and now Tottenham will be full of confidence as the three points on Tuesday night opened up a three point gap on their nearest pursuer, Liverpool. Now Tottenham have a bit of breathing space and perhaps this will release the pressure shackles.  

Spurs were fully deserving of their 2-0 success over Fulham in midweek as their performance was a match winning one, which is an obvious statement considering their ran out comfortable 2-0 winners. However, despite their opponents lacking away form, questions were being asked over whether Spurs were suffering a lull in team spiirt and confidence after their 2-0 defeat at Anfield earlier in the month was quickly followed by a 2-2 draw with League One outfit, Leeds United, in the FA Cup. Also, Spurs do have the burden of a replay with Leeds just over the horizon and so a lack of concentration wouldn’t of been a surprise. However, Tottenham responded in the perfect manner and the victory over their London rivals could be yet another building block for a successful run.

The only concern from a Tottenham front is that Harry Redknapp may have one eye on their replay with Leeds on Wednesday night, a game shown live on ITV1. However, we don’t expect for one minute that Redknapp will field a weakened side at St. Andrews as finishing in the top four, above the likes of Liverpool, Aston Villa & Man City, is their main priority this season and, if anything, Leeds will get the easy treatment. Tottenham, who have a host of teams breathing down their necks, can ill-afford to drop any points and so they will go all out for the win in this encounter with Birmingham, and will be gunning for a league double over Birmingham after beating the Blues 2-1 earlier in the season.

If you’re looking for a serious negative to put you right off a Tottenham back then look no further then this statistic – Tottenham Hotspur have won just one of their last six away league fixtures, with that sole victory coming at Blackburn Rovers. Also, Tottenham haven’t managed a goal in their previous two outings in the league and have now gone over 240 minutes without a goal on their travels.

Match Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to WIN – 2.50 BlueSquare

Birmingham impressive form at St. Andrews this season has to be respected, having not lost at home in their last eight, but Tottenham were a classy outfit on Wednesday night and when they’re in form they’ve proved a difficult team to stop this season. They have plenty of quality in attack to uncoil a tight and compact Birmingham defence, it could be a case of whether Tottenham can keep it tight at their end. If so, a Tottenham win could be on the cards. Birmingham could very well bounce back from their midweek disappointment, but we feel they’re a side beat left alone for the time being as you don’t quite know how they’ll react to a defeat which crushed a 15 match unbeaten run.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 3.25 Bet365

Draw – 3.40 Boylesports

Tottenham Hotspur – 2.50 BlueSquare

SoccerBetting Value Pick: Tottenham Hotspur to WIN to NIL – 5.00 totesport

Chelsea V Birmingham City

Wednesday, 27^th January – 19:45 GMT

Chelsea

League Position: 3rd

Recent Form: WDDWW

Chelsea were at their clinical best on Saturday as the swept aside Preston North End, winning 2-0, to book their place in the fifth round where Cardiff City now await them. That does appear another very generous draw for Chelsea and so this should enable Carlo Ancelotti to put most of his attention and concentration into the league and plotting how Chelsea will overhaul the new leaders of the Premiership, Manchester United. The blues now find themselves playing second fiddle, which is something they aren’t accustomed to this season, but a win could see them regain top spot as the leaders have played two games more than Chelsea.

For Chelsea to go into this weekends fixtures as ‘Top Dog’ they would need Arsenal to come a cropper in their midweek outing at Villa Park. Considering Chelsea came unstuck at Villa Park earlier in the season, an Arsenal setback isn’t out of the question. However, Chelsea can’t afford to let their minds stray elsewhere as they must get the job done themselves. The task, though, won’t be easy as some think as Birmingham are right up their in the form table, with only Arsenal bettering Birmingham’s recent form. Alex McLeish has guided Birmingham to a fifteen match unbeaten run in all competitions, twelve of which have been in the league, but Chelsea are more than equipped to obliterate such a run and we feel they’ll do just that on Wednesday night.  

Stamford Bridge has been a happy hunting ground for Chelsea this season, which won’t raise any eyebrows. In eleven home fixtures only Everton have left the Bridge with their pride still intact, with Chelsea boasting a remarkably strong home record of 10-1-0. Even two giants of English football; Liverpool & Manchester United, have both come unstuck away at Chelsea, which just highlights the task in front of Birmingham and how intimidating a record Chelsea have at home. Moreover, their record becomes even more daunting when you see that Chelsea have found the goal on 34 occasions at home in just 11 games, averaging over 3 goals a game at Stamford Bridge.

The flaws for Chelsea has been in their defence, which is a surprise as it looked impenetrable in the early stages of the season. At home, Chelsea have conceded eight goals, which is solid enough. However, Petr Cech in the Chelsea goal hasn’t kept a clean sheet in his last three starts at Stamford Bridge, conceding one to Portsmouth, one to Fulham and two to Sunderland. All of which were sloppy goals and all were a cause of bad defending. A usually well organised Chelsea defence has been all over the place of late and they were lucky not to concede at Preston on Saturday. There are gaps in that Chelsea defence, ones which can be exploited, but Chelsea spend so much time on the ball, such is their ability to dominate games, that it doesn’t come as much of a problem. However, there is certainly room for improvement with this Chelsea side and they are far from unbeatable… even at home.

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: WDDWD 

Birmingham will be full of confidence, which is nothing new as they’ve been having a whale of a time for a while now. Not since mid-October have Birmingham lost a game of football and this has led to a surge of momentum at the club which helped them bypass a very tricky FA Cup tie at Everton, with ease it has to be said. Birmingham made relatively light work of Everton on Saturday, but they will be given a far sterner test on Wednesday night as the prepare themselves for a Chelsea onslaught. 

It’s quite remarkable the run of form Birmingham are in at the moment. It’s the longest in the clubs history, which is a credit to both the players and the manager, but it’s not actually come as that much of a surprise, although the length of their unbeaten run has. From their very first outing (a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford), Birmingham shaped up as a team that would easily avoid relegation because they looked extremely solid and hard to break down. Every single players works hard for one another and each individual knows the importance of keeping this morale oozing run going. However, to maintain it for so long takes some doing but the bookies haven’t shown Birmingham any respect whatsoever, even with this staggering run of theirs.

According to the bookies Birmingham are huge underdogs, which seems a little harsh considering Birmingham gave Chelsea a rough ride in the reverse fixture at St. Andrews. A game Birmingham should have won were it not for a dubious disallowed goal. Of course, Birmingham thrived on the fabulous support of their home fans that day but they’ve shown no sign of weakness in their away games of late to indicate that they will simply roll over and justify their huge 14/1 price tag. Birmingham are unbeaten in five away outings in the league, winning three of them, and have an Everton victory at the weekend as one of their more glamorous away scalps for the season. It will, of course, be a big ask and we agree that Chelsea should be firm favourites, but Birmingham do look way overpriced and we wouldn’t discourage anyone from having a wee punt on the Scotsman, Alex McLeish, getting another valiant performance out of his players.  

If Birmingham are to produce a shock, by that we mean beat Chelsea, then they will need to produce their biggest display of the season, and that would take some doing. However, the way Birmingham set up does mean a surprising away victory isn’t completely out of the question. Alex Mcleish will set his side up to defend, that’s a given, he will ask his players, especially his midfielders, to close Chelsea down and not to allow them any time on the ball. He will try to nullify the spaces available to Chelsea and to keep the Birmingham defence compact at all times. However, where Birmingham have been dangerous this season has been on the counter and from set-plays, and Chelsea have been made to look foolish from set-pieces this season, so perhaps a shock is a worthwhile punt at 14/1?!

Head-to-Head:

Chelsea W: 6 Birmingham City W: 0 Draws: 3

•  In nine previous meetings, Birmingham have never beaten Chelsea in the Premiership. 

•  Chelsea have won three of the last four home fixtures with Birmingham, winning the last 3-2 back in August, 2007. 

•  Birmingham’s best effort away at Stamford Bridge was a 1-1 draw in April, 2005. 

• In nine meetings with Chelsea, Birmingham have only managed four goals, although three have come at Stamford Bridge.

Match Verdict: Chelsea to WIN – 1.26 Expekt.com

This will be a tough game for both sides but we see Chelsea as the victorious side. Chelsea haven’t been playing sublime football of late but they’ve been clinical and assertive in their games without their missing African contingents. Birmingham will be supremely confident heading to London after a huge 15 match run without losing a game. However, this is their toughest away fixture left to play and it’s asking a lot from Birmingham to maintain their unbeaten run by avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge. The only qualm with Chelsea is that Frank Lampard limped off at the weekend but he should be available for Ancelotti, while Nicolas Anelka is more than accomplished to spoils Birmingham’s run as he showed with his goal-baring display at Preston. Chelsea to overpower Birmingham!

Match Odds:

Chelsea – 1.26 Expekt.com

Draw – 6.00 SkyBet

Birmingham City – 15.00 Bet365

SoccerBetting Value Pick: Nicolas Anelka Anytime Scorer – 2.05 VCbet

Birmingham City V Manchester United

Saturday, 9^th January – 17:30 GMT (ESPN)

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: WWDDW

The Birmingham express just keeps on rolling, even if it is running a tad slower in the FA Cup, but will the arrival of Man Utd knock the high-flying blues straight off the track? Past results would certainly suggest so as Birmingham have never beaten Manchester United in the league at St. Andrews, nor have they beaten them at all in actual fact. However, it is Alex McLeish’s men who head into this fixture with all the momentum and that could be in crucial as Birmingham aim to record their first every victory over The Red Devils in the Premiership.

Even a tough set of Christmas fixtures couldn’t derail Birmingham, with a 2-1 victory over Blackburn and a 0-0 draw with Chelsea, either side of Christmas, extending their unbeaten run in the league to eleven games. Their best run for over 102 years. This outstanding streak of theirs consists of seven wins and four draws, with even the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City all failing to overhaul Birmingham this season. However, Man Utd are one of a select few that have already claimed the scalp of Brummie this season and they’ll be aiming to complete a league double over Birmingham.

Birmingham’s fantastic run of form has been built upon the basis of a solid defensive. Something which we have highlighted in just about every preview, but, unless it goes wayward, we will carry on praising it as it has been a sensational defence, of which Joe Hart has to take a lot of the credit. Alex McLeish’s side have conceded just 18 goals this season, level with the likes of Man Utd, Aston Villa; slightly worse than Chelsea who have shipped just 17; but better than both Arsenal & Liverpool; which just puts it into comparison how strong a defence it’s been. However, it’s been especially strong at St. Andrews, with Birmingham boasting the leanest home defence in the land, conceding just 5 goals at home all season.

We’ve talked a lot about this bullish defence for weeks but it’s vitally important to have a strong backbone in games such as these. Joe Hart, who has been arguably the league’s best goalkeeper up till now, has kept two consecutive clean sheets in goal, eight in all, and hasn’t conceded a goal in a little over 185 minutes of play. Then again, Birmingham haven’t managed to score two or more in either of their previous three outings in the league, so although they are incredibly strong at the back they are very weak in attack, although we prefer to view it as ‘clinical’.

“Clinical, you say?” Well, all nine of their victories this season have all been by a one goal margin, of which six have been to nil, six have been 1-0’s. This is proof that Birmingham don’t play like Real Madrid but, however, are far more consistent and reliable than the Spanish giants. This outstanding unbeaten run of theirs needs to be respected and we won’t fall foul to arrogance. We quite fancy Birmingham to stretch their unbeaten run and, possibly, record their first win over a United side that are clearly rocking.

Manchester United

League Position: 2nd

Recent Form: LWLWW

The mighty Red Devils haven’t been at their sublime best in recent weeks but will need to pull a huge performance out of the bag if they any real ambitions of walking away from St. Andrews with all thee points as their Birmingham opponents boast far better form than they do. United are, though, still in the race for the title and could find themselves top of the table with a victory on Saturday, although they would still need Hull City to do them a favour elsewhere, but there are clear incentives for United heading into an extremely tough new year fixture. 

United have been far from untouchable this season but they’ve been even more vulnerable on the road, losing twice as many away fixtures as Birmingham have lost at home. Four times Ferguson’s Manchester United have come a cropper away from Old Trafford this season, which is a million miles away from the form they displayed in last seasons league winning campaign. Nonetheless, Sir Alex’s United remain one of the best in the land, and although they don’t boast a great wealth of form at present, they do have a handful of players with serious match winning abilities and they will be a threat no matter how bad their form is.

Sir Alex will, though, need to lift the spirit of the camp after a morale crushing defeat at the weekend in which Man Utd, the 11 times winners of the competition, were sent packing at the third round stage by League 1 outfit, Leeds United, in a game where the Red Devils were tamed by Simon Grayson’s Leeds. 

I’m a Liverpool fan through and through, so I’m used to terrible performances from my side, but even I felt sorry for the loyal set of United fans in the terraces at Old Trafford as their side were dreadful. Their passes were going wayward, their midfield was all over the shot, the defence was a shambles, while even their best player this season, Wayne Rooney, was missing sitters even my Grandma would struggle to miss. It really was a bad day at the office, but in a huge encounter, and it’s hard to comprehend not only how will that affect the morale of the camp but if United can recover in time to face an inform Birmingham City.

If United are to end Birmingham’s valiant unbeaten run then you’d expect Wayne Rooney to be at the forefront of this assault. However, even his best efforts haven’t provided United with a decent away record (6-0-4), and the Reds’ have been a vulnerable away outfit all season. They do, though have this unique ability to throw up a stunning performance from out of the blue and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if they plucked one up again this Saturday.

Head-to-Head (Last 8):

Birmingham City W: 0 Manchester United W: 6 Draws: 2

• Birmingham have never beaten Man Utd in a Premiership fixture

• In eight meetings, the best Birmingham could muster was two draws, with both of them coming at St. Andrews.

• In eight encounters with United, both home and away, Birmingham have failed to find the goal in seven of those, and haven’t scored against United in their previous four attempts.

• Man Utd have won the last four contests between the two, all to NIL.

• The last three meetings have gone the way of Man Utd, all by a 1-0 score line.

Match Verdict: Draw – 3.80 Bet365

We have played safe with a punt on the draw. These two are so evenly matched in that Birmingham are the in form side of the two but are up against the quality of Man Utd. A team who, were they on top of their form, would probably win this fixture with few problems. However, United’s form issues makes them a precarious bet and Birmingham did hold Chelsea to a 0-0 draw not so long ago, although they really should have won that encounter were it not for some bad referring decisions. Birmingham will still need to work their socks off in order to get a result but they’ve built up a solid defensive foundation and United will struggle to break them down after a torrid weekend. Birmingham to become yet another side to frustrate Sir Alex Ferguson!

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 6.80 Expekt.com

Draw – 3.80 Bet365

Manchester United – 1.62 PaddyPower

Nottingham Forest V Birmingham City

Saturday 2^nd January – 15:00 GMT

Arguably the two most consistent sides in the country do battle this weekend in what will be a very tight contest to call. Birmingham’s run of eleven matches unbeaten will be overshadowed by Forest’s run of sixteen games without defeat, however, City’s Premiership association does see them sneak ahead in terms of match day favouritism with the bookies but Billy Davies’ team have proven a tough nut to crack all season and this could very well be settled in two legs if the the sides replicate their league form.

Nottingham Forest

FA Cup Odds: 300/1 Boylesports

After a poor start to the season, managing just one win from their opening seven fixtures, things have really started to pick up and Nottingham is now a much brighter setting as the prospect of securing promotion back into the top flight becomes a serious possibility. Their sixteen match unbeaten run, 10 wins and 6 draws, has lifted Forest into automatic promotion contention with Forest now just two points off second placed West Brom. However, the player mustn’t get too excited as there is still the excitement of competing in the FA Cup and a good cup run, although could hinder the fitness levels of the players, will massively enhance the mood around the club, both with the fans and in the Forest dressing room.

The basis for Nottingham Forest’s success this season has been down to their solid defensive foundations. With the exception of Newcastle United who have conceded just 14 goals, Forest boast the tightest defence in the league after conceding a measly 18 goals in their opening 24 completed fixtures. They have, somewhat surprisingly, conceded a few more at home than they’ve done while on their travels but , equally, they’ve managed to locate the goal a lot more at home, 24 in total which is 14 more than on their travels, which is why they will be a very dangerous opponent for Birmingham on Saturday.  

Forest notched up their fourth win in December when they beat Coventry City 2-0 at The New Ground last Monday. Forest have now won three of their last four with all three being to nil. Also, another statistic which just highlights how strong their defence has been this season is that Forest haven’t conceded a single goal in their last five matches, over 510 minutes of action without their goal being breached. That’s a staggering achievement from a club that looked in trouble at the start of the season.

The biggest danger men for Forest will be Robert Earnshaw, a Welsh international with bags of pace and know-how, and Dexter Blackstock, a player who has played for just about every club in The Championship and yet still finds the goal with relative ease. The former has seven league goals for the season while Blackstock has bagged six. The pair have been a prolific striking duo this season and could cause a well organised Birmingham defence a few problems on Saturday.

Birmingham City

FA Cup Odds: 100/1 SkyBet

Forest maybe The Championship in form side but Birmingham, outstandingly, are the Premiership’s equivalent of Chelsea at present after going eleven matches without defeat, their longest unbeaten run for nearly a century. Their main objective for the season was to avoid the job and that mission is all but complete so now Alex McLeish can have no qualms about fielding the strongest possible side for this tricky looking clash with a Forest side who boast even more form than they do.

The Birmingham express is showing no signs of stopping after yet another victory on Monday afternoon, an away one at that. Their 1-0 success at Stoke City, a notoriously tough venue to play in, combined with their stunning display and result at home to Chelsea (0-0), a game they should of won, means Birmingham have plenty of solid momentum heading into this fixture knowing that even the current best in England, Chelsea according to the league table, can’t even beat them, so what chance do Championship side Nottingham Forest stand?  

Well, if Birmingham are to falter then you would fancy it to come on their travels as that is generally where they’ve underperformed this season, although not by a lot. Birmingham have only lost six games thus far but have lost twice as many on the road then at home, which is why we can’t get too carried away. However, they are unbeaten in their last five outings, recording three wins and two draws, but have conceded more than double the amount they’ve shipped at home on their travels. Their away form is very strong but there are little niggles that might advocate a turn up for the books in this clash.

Yet another amazing statistic, one that has even escaped me in recent weeks, is that Birmingham have scored in all but one of their away league games this season. That one exemption being their opening day outing at Manchester United, losing 1-0 in a valiant display. They have since managed to score in nine successive away games, with Cameron Jerome scoring their latest.

Match verdict: Nottingham Forest to WIN -2.90 PaddyPower

A draw will be a popular punt in this contest as there isn’t a lot to separate the two apart from where they ply their trade. Both are very stubborn, very awkward, and very clinical. Neither tends to give an awful lot away, but with this being the FA Cup, we fancy the home support to be the difference in a contest which we predict Forest progressing at the expense of the Premiership’s in form team. Forest haven’t lost at The New Ground since the middle of September, a run of eight games unbeaten, and have won eight of their last nine at home. Only Doncaster and Leicester have managed to score at Nottingham since Blackpool beat Forest 1-0 back in September, with Forest keeping a clean sheet in seven of their last nine at home, and their superb home form looks too good to miss out on considering that they are just shy of 2/1.

Match Odds:

Nottingham Forest – 2.90 PaddyPower

Draw – 3.40 SkyBet

Birmingham City – 2.50 Bet365

SoccerBetting Value Tip: Nottingham Forest to WIN to NIL – 4.30 BlueSquare

Prices last updated: 13:58 29^th Dec.

Birmingham City V Chelsea

Saturday 26^th December (Boxing Day) – 12:45 GMT (Sky Sports 1)

Birmingham City

League Position: 7th

Recent Form: WWWWD

After watching Birmingham on the opening day of the season, in a game they lost 1-0 against the current champions, Man Utd, we were very confident that they wouldn’t have any problems bypassing this season in terms of survival. However, not even we envisaged the sort of run that would not only see Birmingham take huge strides away from the relegation zone but also into European contention. Alex Mcleish’s men have now moved up into seventh position, just a point off the Europa League spots but, more crucially, twelve points off the bottom three. They are certainly on course to complete their objective of avoiding relegation but will the festive season bring about some rare cases of complacency from what has been a solid Birmingham outfit this season.

Birmingham will face arguably their biggest test thus far on Saturday as they welcome Chelsea to St. Andrews. McLeish has already pitted his wits against Sir Alex Ferguson (Man Utd), Arsene Wenger (Arsenal) Rafael Benitez (Liverpool) and Mark Hughes (Man City at the time), and has faired extremely well on all four occasions. However, Birmingham are still looking for that elusive win over a ‘Big Four’ team as the best they’ve managed this season is two draws with Liverpool and Man City.

If you’re looking for bad omens then look no further than Birmingham’s terrible record over ‘Big Four’ opponents. They are on a drastic run, stretching back over four years, since their last win over the almighty Big Four teams. In the 2004/2005 Premiership season, Birmingham beat Liverpool twice, home and away, and Arsenal at home, but have since failed to record a victory, failing in sixteen attempts. That means Birmingham are without a win over one of the so called ‘Big Four’ in sixteen games but, with the form they are in, who would back against them ending their drought against a Chelsea side on the rocks at present – Us, of course.

The basis of Birmingham’s success this season has been built upon solid defensive foundations. Joe Hart in the City goal has been immense, keeping four clean sheets at home in eight appearances. With the World Cup just around the corner, there is no better incentive for a young keeper to pull out all the stops and he has been doing just that for Birmingham City this season. However, this solid defence, one that has conceded just 18 goals this season, less than the likes of Arsenal & Liverpool, has enabled Birmingham to scrape through games with just a single goal. In the eight victories for Birmingham this season, all eight have been by a narrow one goal margin, which just goes to show how tight they leave it.

St. Andrews is quickly becoming a happy hunting ground for the Blues as they’ve fallen to defeat only twice there all season. They are unbeaten at home in their last five appearances, winning four and drawing one, but Chelsea will be their hardest home fixture to date. City do, though, boast an incredibly strong goalscoring record at home of 8-5, and although the amount of goals scored isn’t all that impressive, the fact that they’ve conceded just a measly five, the joint best home defence in the league, just goes to show how difficult a side they are to break down at St. Andrews.

Chelsea

League Position: 1st

Recent Form: WLDWD

Stamford Bridge is rocking at present after just one win in four games for Chelsea. They started the season like a train on fire and appeared to be in cruise control at one stage, but their weaknesses, ones we weren’t even sure existed just a month or so ago, are rapidly coming to light and it’s their defence where all their problems lye. Carlo Ancelotti’s new year resolution will be to reinforce what has been a vulnerable Chelsea back four of late but will he have enough strength in depth to get the club through a gruelling fixture period.

The answer to that silly question is fairly simple – Yes! It’s quite unbelievable how much quality Ancelotti has at his disposal. However, he hasn’t been getting the best of out them of late, especially his defenders, as Chelsea have been well below par in their recent outings. Their apparent defensive issues came to light, once again, at Upton Park last Sunday in a game which was widely expected to of the way of the home side, Chelsea. However, Chelsea were extremely poor on the day and looked an ordinary outfit throughout most of the game, and were it not for a ridiculous penalty decision given in their favour, Chelsea could of left Upton Park with their tails between their legs.

Chelsea’s performance at Upton Park, home of West Ham United, was one of the poorest from them we’ve seen this season. There was no urgency in their play, the pace of their attacks was lethargic at times, whilst their defence was at sixes and sevens, and has been for several weeks now. It’s clear that this poor run of one win in four games, league wise, is affecting the confidence of the players and, in particular, their defence, which has been all over the place recently. Defenders aren’t even marking strikers anymore, the full-backs are getting skinned with ease but, more staggeringly, is that there is no communication and no organisation at the back, whatsoever. John Terry, not only the Chelsea skipper but also England’s, has gone missing of late in games and it could be a case that his off the pitch antics regarding something to do with ticket touting could be affecting his performances, although he’s been under performing for some time now.  

It’s been a poor run of form and the confidence in camp won’t be great but Chelsea do still have, by far and away, one of the better squads in the league and do still appear too strong for Birmingham on paper. However, their performances of late have been shoddy, which is unlike Chelsea, and it’s hard to back them with a great deal of confidence knowing that another ugly display isn’t out of the question. Still, the talent is certainly there, word class at that, it’s just a case of whether Carlo Ancelotti can raise the spirit of the camp as the Chelsea dressing room does need a big confidence lift.

Head-to-Head (Last 10):

Birmingham City W: 0 Chelsea W: 6 Draw: 2

It’s basically been one way traffic when ever these two have met, bar two occasions. Chelsea have beaten Birmingham at St. Andrews three times out of a possible four, with the only exception being a 0-0 draw back in 2006. The last times these two met was back in the 2007.2008 campaign and it was Chelsea who completed a league double over Birmingham, the second time they had achieved such a feat in four attempts, beating by one goal in both encounters; 3-2 at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea) and 1-0 at St. Andrews.

Match Verdict: Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

Birmingham are on a spirited run but we can see all their hard work coming to an end in Saturday’s home clash with Chelsea. Birmingham will give Chelsea a run for their money, though, and certainly won’t roll over. In fact, if Chelsea have another bad day at the office then a shock could very well be on the cards. We can’t, however, see Chelsea putting in yet another abysmal display and a clinical Chelsea is in the closest somewhere, eager to let rip. Whether it will be against a stubborn Birmingham City is another question but Chelsea are a handsome price, considering Birmingham are a promoted side, to comply at St. Andrews in a venue they’ve won three times at in four attempts.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 7.50 Coral

Draw – 4.00 Bet365

Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

Fancy a challenge?! – All of Birmingham’s eight victories have been by a one goal margin, whereas just four of Chelsea’s thirteen wins have been by the same one goal margin. However, a one goal victory is Chelsea’s most common victory margin but, with Birmingham boasting all the form, which team, if either, will win by a narrow one goal?

Birmingham City to WIN by 1 goal – 10.00 BlueSquare

Chelsea to WIN by 1 goal – 3.50 Bet365

Our challenge pick – Chelsea!

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For those of you who fancy yourself against Matt, feel free to send us your challenge selection and those who do beat Matt will get a mention on the related preview. There is no actual prize up for grabs… just bragging rights?!

Send us your challenge pick to: challenge@soccerbetting.info