Aston Villa V Manchester City

 

Aston Villa V Manchester City

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 12 February 2012 – 16:00 GMT

Venue: Villa Park

 

Preview

Big-spending Manchester City have been dominant versus Aston Villa in recent seasons, winning four of the pair’s previous five meetings in all competitions – but they have yet to conqueror Villa Park. They are odds-on to do just that on Sunday, despite numerous factors that might suggest otherwise.

Not since November 2006 have Manchester City won a Premier League fixture at Aston Villa, losing on two of their previous four visits to Villa Park, including last season, when Darren Bent struck the only goal of the game on his Villa début following his big-money move from Sunderland in January 2011. PaddyPower offer 60/1 on a repeat scenario (Darren Bent FGS in a 1-0 Villa win; scorecast), which, as I will soon explain, isn’t all that bad a bet.

Darren Bent is arguably the most clinical English striker in the Premier League, a player bang-in-form having notched four in his last five league and cup appearances. The 28-year-old has faced Man City twelve times during his career, scoring a total of eight goals – the last two have both been winners. Only Bolton (11 goals) have conceded more to the prolific marksmen, who is 9/4 (Ladbrokes) to register at any time in proceedings.

Furthermore, Manchester City have been so inconsistent on their travels of late that a fourth away loss of the campaign is by no means beyond the realms of possibility. It is now one win in six away from home following their 1-0 loss at Everton at the end of January, a run that includes three defeats and just two goals scored. Yes, just two goals scored in their last 450 minutes of away Premier League action, failing to score in each of their previous three (so almost six hours without an away goal for a team that has plundered 63 goals in 24 matches thus far).

On top of all this, Aston Villa really aren’t a bad side. Yes they have struggled to a degree against the better teams this season, losing to Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd at home, but they gave the Gunners a scare at the Emirates recently in the FA Cup, leading 2-0 at one stage before a second-half capitulation saw them lose 3-2.

Alex Mcleish possess players who can really hurt teams, with Gabriel Agbonlahor, Charles N’Zogbia and Marc Albrighton all possessing frightening pace out wide, while no team can afford to underestimate the predatory instincts of Darren Bent and Robbie Keane. The latterly mentioned will also be making his final home appearance for the Villains, so will be keen to sign off on a positive note before he jets back to the US to join back up with the Los Angeles Galaxy.

The anticipated return of skipper Vincent Kompany will boost Manchester City’s chances of success no-end, as the Belgian has been sorely missed of late (during his four-match suspension and his recent spell on the sidelines because of a knee injury). Samir Nasri is a doubt however, while Mario Balotelli (injured) and the Toure brothers – Kolo and Yaya – are all unavailable to Roberto Mancini.

 

Match Pointers

Last Meeting: Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa (Premier League); 15 October, 2011. The Citizens romped to a 4-1 success at the Etihad Stadium courtesy of goals from Vincent Kompany, James Milner, Adam Johnson and Mario Balotelli. Full-back Stephan Warnock with Aston Villa’s consolation goal.

- Four of the previous five meetings in all competitions were won by Manchester City; however, all four were in Manchester while the last time City visited Aston Villa, which was in January 2011 in the Premier League, they were beaten 1-0 thanks to Darren Bent’s winning goal on his Villa début.

- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League home games versus Manchester City, winning two.

- Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli has scored on all three occasions he has faced Aston Villa, notching five in total.

- Villa striker Darren Bent has 7 goals in 12 Premier League appearances versus Manchester City, incuding netting the winning goal in last season’s Villa Park encounter.

Aston Villa

- With just one win from their last five Premier League matches (W1 D2 L2), Villa have dropped into the lower-half of the table (13TH).

- Villa have only won three of twelve home Premier League games so far (W3 D4 L5), and none of their last six (D2 L4), losing to Arsenal (1-2), Liverpool (0-2) and Manchester United (0-1) at Villa Park this season.

- Darren Bent has scored seven of his nine Premier League goals this season at Villa Park, netting in each of the last two league games there.

Manchester City

- Roberto Mancini’s side lead the Barclay’s Premier League by two-points following last week’s results; them beating Fulham 3-0 at home and Manchester United drawing 3-3 with Chelsea.

- Only Manchester United (26) have registered more points on their travels this season than Man City (21), that is in spite of the fact City have won only one of their previous six away from home in the Premier League (W1 D2 L3).

- City have failed to score in three of their previous four away league games, in defeats to Everton (1-0) and Sunderland (1-0) and a goalless draw with West Brom.

- Nine of Edin Dzeko’s 12 Premier League goals this season were scored away from home.

 

Betting

Verdict: Manchester City to WIN @ 8/11 (PaddyPower)

Not the easiest of assignments for the league leaders, who may not be top of the pile come kick-off. That’s because second-placed United entertain arch rivals Liverpool on Saturday and a win for Sir Alex Ferguson’s team would send them a point clear at the summit, above City who would need at least a point from their visit to Villa Park in order to regain top-spot. Even though it will be tough, I do expect City to take all three, let alone the one needed to regain the outright lead.

Villa have the arsenal up front to trouble a City rearguard that has kept one clean sheet in its last seven away league matches. What has let them down far too often however is their defence, which is why I cannot bring myself to oppose Roberto Mancini’s men who are decent odds to comply – even at odds-on. There will be goals, more than the one scored in last season’s corresponding league meeting, and I fully expect the majority of those to be scored by a visiting team spearheaded by two of the division’s leading marksmen in Sergio Aguero and Edin Dezeko.

Value Bet: Over 3.5 Goals @ 12/5 (Boylesports)

I’m expecting goals, for the simple reason that Villa cannot defend. So often Shay Given has been their saviour between the sticks, the former Man City shot-stopper who must marshal a somewhat hapless defence that has kept one clean sheet at home all season and has conceded more goals from corners than any other team in the top-flight – against the side who have scored more goals than anyone else, as well as a league-high 10 from corners. A speculative punt on 4-2 Man City (66/1 with Boylesports) wouldn’t go a miss.

 

Match Odds

Aston Villa – 9/2 (Bet365)

Draw – 14/5 (BetVictor)

Manchester City – 8/11 (PaddyPower)

 

Aston Villa V Manchester City

Saturday, 22nd January – 17:30 (GMT)
Venue: Villa Park
TV Coverage: ESPN

 

Aston Villa

While nobody is likely to exceed the amount Manchester City splashed out on Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko, we feel there is no question as to which of the January transfers so far has raised more eyebrows than Darren Bent’s shock move to Aston Villa from Sunderland, the England international swapping a club with European aspirations for a relegation scrap with the Villains. Now the question is, can Bent fire Villa up the table and away from the lower reaches of the Barclay’s Premier League?

I suppose you could argue that it’s been a desperately disappointing season for Villa so far, and desperate times often calls for desperate measures. I’m not saying Houllier’s acquisition of Bent was a poor move, nor that the former Sunderland hitman isn’t worth a single penny of his massive price-tag. What I am saying is that Houllier is going about it all the right way if he wishes to turn the vast majority of his peers against him. The Frenchman has incensed Steve Bruce by his arrogance over the deal regarding Bent for not even discussing the switch with the Sunderland chief, while he earned the wrath of Blackpool manager Ian Holloway earlier in the week for his insulting valuation of Charlie Adam.

I never really pictured Gerard Houllier as being some sort of Highwayman – acquiring those who catch his eye while out on his travels, and although he isn’t required to go traveling this weekend, victory over high-flying Man City would only further boost his profile as the Premier League’s very own pickpocket. No-one expects them to beat the Citizens on Saturday, not even with home advantage on their side, though it really would be salt in wounds material should he successfully plot title-chasing City’s downfall this weekend.

As we mentioned, no-one really expects Aston Villa to prove too strong for a Man City team who have recorded more victories away from home than Villa have all season. The Villains have been victorious in just one of their last five matches at home and haven’t beaten a team currently positioned in the top half of the table. The diamond in the rough will be the fact four of Villa’s five league wins this season have come at Villa Park, though they’ve lost three of their last four on home soil and Houllier’s charges last celebrated victory in the Premier League six games ago on 11th December.

Ashley Young returns from his suspension although Emile Heskey will serve the last leg of his three-match ban. Luke Young and Stephen Ireland are both out injured, while John Carew has just complete a loan switch to rivals Stoke City.

Aston Villa Fact: The Villains have lost six of their last nine league games under Gerard Houllier.

 

Manchester City

In a post-match interview following his team’s 4-2 triumph over Championship side Leicester in an FA Cup replay, Roberto Mancini openly discussed how defensively his team has performed to an unsatisfactory standard of late and it was refreshing to see a manager not try and cover over the cracks but more make a point of them and convince folk that he will get straight down to business in the next training session with regards to addressing the issue at hand. But it is a massive concern for punters, especially if the Italian doesn’t resolve the issue in time for Saturday’s trip to Aston Villa, where the Citizens will line up against a player they know all about in Darren Bent – the former Sunderland striker scoring the only goal of the game, from the penalty spot in stoppage time, when City suffered their very first defeat of the season away at Sunderland way back in August.

Even though his opposite number possess a player who is a proven match-winner in Darren Bent, Mancini will nevertheless feel he has the edge when it comes to who has the most potent strike-force. To be honest, there aren’t many, any even, who can match City’s fire-power now that they’ve partnered Carlos Tevez, the Premier League’s joint-leading scorer for the term with 14 goals, with Bosnian goal-getter Edin Dzeko, scorer of 66 goals in the German Bundesliga and a player who impressed on his debut against Wolves last weekend, despite failing to get on the scoresheet.

I was never aware of this until I dug deep and did a little research, but I was amazed to see that City have lost just two of their last sixteen meetings with Aston Villa in the Premier League, and just one of their last seven. Moreover, Mancini has never lost a match with the Villains, meanwhile his Citizens side are gunning for their fourth league victory over the Birmingham-based outfit in five games. It all makes for intriguing reading, whilst lamenting City’s claims for favourtism in a contest which over the years has been very kind to them.

While it may not have been entirely convincing, progress was made in the FA Cup on Tuesday which kept alive City’s quest for silverware. Leicester were eventually killed off courtesy of Alex Kolarov’s first goal in English football, as City scored four goals in a match for the third time in three weeks. Aston Villa were one of the opponents City smashed for four during this period, a Mario Balotelli hat-trick easing City towards a comfortable 4-0 win at Easltands on 28 December. The fact this second encounter with the Villains is being played at Villa Park should mean a second rout is off the cards, though we wouldn’t rule it out what with the strike-force they have and the abundance of flair and craftsman in their midfield. To be honest, I just don’t see how City won’t be too strong for a Villa team who have lost seven of their last eleven league contests.

Mario Balotelli bagged a hat-trick in the previous meeting with Villa, two coming from the spot, though the cocky Italian won’t even be at the game on Saturday. The recently crowned Young Player of the Year was sent away to America to aid his recovery from a knee injury. Kolo Toure is also likely to be absent, after the defender limped out of City’s last league clash with Wolves last weekend and didn’t even make the squad for their FA Cup tie with Leicester in midweek.

 

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Last 5 Results

Aston Villa

Premiership: Birmingham City 1-1 Aston Villa
FA Cup: Sheffield United 1-3 Aston Villa
Premiership: Aston Villa 0-1 Sunderland
Premiership: Chelsea 3-3 Aston Villa
Premiership: Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa

Manchester City

FA Cup (Replay): Manchester City 4-2 Leicester City
Premiership: Manchester City 4-3 Wolves
FA Cup: Leicester City 2-2 Manchester City
Premiership: Arsenal 0-0 Manchester City
Premiership: Manchester City 1-0 Blackpool

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Head-to-Head (Last 5 Seasons)

2010/2011: Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa

2009/2010: Manchester City 3-1 Aston Villa
2009/2010: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City

2008/2009: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa
2008/2009: Aston Villa 4-2 Manchester City

2007/2008: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City
2007/2008: Manchester City 1-0 Aston Villa

2006/2007: Manchester City 0-2 Aston Villa
2006/2007: Aston Villa 1-3 Manchester City

2005/2006: Aston Villa 0-1 Manchester City
2005/2006: Manchester City 3-1 Aston Villa

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2010/2011 Premiership Statistics

Aston Villa

League Position: 17th
Win-Draw-Lose: 5-7-10 (Home: 4-4-3)
Goal Difference: 24-39 (Home: 15-13)
Form: LLDLD (Home: DLWLL)
Top Scorer: Stewart Downing (5)

Manchester City

League Position: 2nd
Win-Draw-Lose: 13-6-4 (Away: 6-3-2)
Goal Difference: 37-19 (Away: 19-9)
Form: WWWDW (Away: WDWWD)
Top Scorer: Carlos Tevez (14)

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Betting Odds & Tips

Match Prediction: Manchester City to WIN – 2.15 Victor Chandler

I’m afraid not even the expensive Darren Bent helps Villa to put a dismal record against Saturday’s opponents City in the shade, the Eastlands outfit having won three of the previous four league meetings and having lost just two of the last fourteen in the Premier League.

The one thing Villa do have in Bent is a player who only this season scored a winning goal against Man City, albeit for Sunderland near the very beginning of the season. Even so, Bent will no doubt be champing at the bit to make his debut and to prove so many wrong, like us, for example. Instead, however, we only envisage one winner, and it isn’t the Claret colours of Aston Villa.

Although we, along with many others, have criticised their lacklustre defence of late, shipping five goals in their last two matches alone, neither against sides quite as good as Aston Villa. Nevertheless, there’s simply too much quality within the City ranks to oppose them at Villa Park, a venue which has been kind to them over the years and where the hosts, Villa, have tasted defeat in three of their last four league games.

Carlos Tevez is bang in form, scoring a screamer in midweek as City eventually sailed through to the fourth-round of the FA Cup. Yaya Toure has been an instant hit with his marauding runs forward from deep, while Edin Dzeko will be just as eager to kick-start his scoring spree with his new club as Darren Bent.

Only one winner for me although I do foresee both teams scoring in this contest, what should be a wide-open encounter between the two.

Value Bet: Darren Bent to Score – 3.00 SkyBet

Scored Sunderland’s winner earlier in the season, when the Black Cats recorded a 1-0 win over the Citizens on Wearside, so can Darren Bent repeat the trick?

 

Match Odds:

Aston Villa – 3.75 Paddy Power
Draw – 3.40 William Hill
Manchester City – 2.15 Victor Chandler

 

English Premiership 2009/2010

 

 

Aston Villa V Manchester City

 

 

Kick-off: Monday 5^th October – 20:00 GMT

Venue: Villa Park

TV Coverage: ESPN

 

 

Aston Villa

 

League Position: 7th

Recent Form: WWWWL

 

  

Villa’s superb run of four straight wins was destroyed by a Blackburn side who defied the numbers to record a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa last weekend, despite Rovers being reduced to 10 men midway through the second half. Richard Dunne will have to take the full brunt of the blame as his handball gifted Blackburn the opportunity to go ahead from the spot, and Blackburn’s David Dunn duly accepted. Now Martin O”Neill must get his squad of youthful and exuberant players back on the winning track again, but the arrival of a free-spending Manchester City does present the best of opportunities for Villa to do just that.

  

Villa haven’t had that much luck in recent games with man City, and, what with City now competing with Villa for a top six finish, it’s imperative that Villa send out a message of intent to the rich challengers by beating City at Villa Park. Martin O’Neill certainly posses the players capable of beating a side like City, and let’s not forget that they do already have the scalp of Liverpool, a side still a lot better than Man City, in our honest yet brutal opinion. However, with Villa it’s always been a case of consistency or a lack of it in their case, with the Clarets generally putting in a good display one week and a dire one the next. They are what we punters like to call – an accumulator nightmare.

 

Martin O’Neill cannot afford to take the cautious approach to this game as Villa need all three points if they want to keep up with the leading pack. The likes of Gabriel Agbonlahor, John Carew, Ashley Young and captain James Milner, will need to put in one of the biggest shifts of their career as a win over City would send out a message to everyone that they mean business this season, despite their most recent setback. However, to achieve this they will need to attack City right from the off, using the pace of Milner & Young down the wings to supply their strong forwards with plenty of chances. Villa’s biggest goal threat lies in their wingers and both James Milner & Ashley Young will need to put in a man of the match display for Villa to prosper here.

 

 

Manchester City

 

League Position: 4th

Recent Form: WWWLW

 

 

 

It didn’t take City long before they were back doing what they’ve found so easy this season, and that’s winning games. A brace from Tevez and a fine strike from Martin Petrov was enough to give City all three points as the richest club in the land made an instant return to winning ways, defeating West Ham 3-1 on Monday night. That was their fifth win of the season and they now go level on points with Liverpool & Tottenham Hotspur in fifth, albeit with a game in hand over the pair.

  

The win was just what the doctor ordered after their somewhat unfortunate defeat away at Manchester the week before. However, City didn’t show no signs of self pity as they got straight back down to work at home to West Ham, who did cause City a few problems at times, albeit in small patches of the game.

  

All in all, City dominated proceedings against West Ham, with the City midfield and defence keeping West Ham’s attacks at arms length throughout most of the game. However, a big plus point from that game was their ability to carve open the West Ham defence, even without their star forward; Emmanuel Adebayor. He will still miss out as he serves his three match ban, this being his last game of the ban, but Roque Santa Cruz could play a part as aims to get some more vital match minutes under his belt after he made a late substitute appearance on Monday night.

 

It’s vital that Man City notch up another victory as they aim to keep up with the leading contenders at the top of the pile. However, a trip to Villa Park is always a tough affair, regardless of City’s past fortunes at this venue. Mark Hughes must guard against complacency as any silly mistakes, like the one that gave Carlton Cole the opening to score on Monday, will get punished by Aston Villa. They will need Sean Wright-Philips to continue his pacey runs down the right, Carlos Tevez needs to carry on his form which seen him score twice against West Ham in his last outing, while Craig Bellamy needs another big shift just behind the little Argentinian, if Man City are to achieve the right result at Villa Park – the win!

 

 

 

Head-to-Head:

 

 

Aston Villa W: 2 Manchester City W: 6 Draws: 2

 

 

As you can see, City have enjoyed the vast amounts of fortunes in recent contests between the two. However, although Villa did win the last meeting at Villa Park, winning 4-2, Martin O’Neill’s side hadn’t won any of the previous eight meetings at Villa Park beforehand. City’s last success at Villa Park came two season ago when they beat Villa 3-1, will they secure another stunning result on Monday?

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals: 5 Under 2.5 Goals: 5

 

 

The goal count is split straight down the middle but, with both sides possessing some extremely talented forwards this season, we expect this game to end in a fair few goals. The last meeting at Villa Park ended in a 4-2 victory for the home side, although, three of the last five encounters at Villa have finished Under 2.5.

 

 

 

Match Verdict: Aston Villa to WIN – 8/5 Bet365

 

This may sound like a bold prediction but it’s hard to see Villa not getting fired up for this clash as City are one of their main competitors this season. O’Neill will need a huge performance from a whole host of his key players but we expect their youthful wingers; Ashley Young & James Milner, to be the match winners for Villa here as their pace and trickery down the flanks might be too much for City to handle. Also, we mustn’t forget that Emmanuel Adebayor, a player who has scored in each league outing this season, is now available and he will be a big aerial asset for Mark Hughes in this game, the Togo international has scored in every Premiership outing thus far. Villa to nip a corker of a match for us.

 

 

 

Match Odds:

 

 

Aston Villa – 8/5 Bet365

 

Manchester City – 7/4 SkyBet

 

Draw – 12/5 SkyBet

 

 

 

SoccerBetting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals – Evens Bet365