Sunderland V Middlesbrough – Sunday, 29 January 2012 (LIVE on ITV1)

Sunderland V Middlesbrough

Date & Kick-Off: Sunday, 29 January 2012 – 13:30 GMT

Venue: Stadium of Light

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

The FA Cup Fourth-Round draw has thrown up a North-East derby with Sunderland and Middlesbrough locking horns for the first time in a little over three years at the Stadium of Light this Sunday. It will be shown live, too, on ESPN.

Sunderland, two-time FA Cup winners in 1937 and 1973, are bidding to reach for the Fifth-Round for the first time since 2004. They’ll do just that with a third successive home win over Middlesbrough, whom have worryingly grown accustom to their Championship surroundings having spent the last two-and-a-half-years down in the second tier following their relegation from the Premier League in 2009.

It goes without saying then that Sunderland are hot favourites – although I expected slimmer odds than those currently on offer. Ladbrokes’ quote of 8/11 seems mighty generous, as while there may only be a few miles separating the two clubs, geographically speaking, in football terms they are poles apart now.

Whereas Middlesbrough are regularly coming a cropper against teams of the ilk of Coventry, who they were comprehensively beaten by last week 3-1, Sunderland have found some stable footing under Northern Irishman Martin O’Neill who has guided the team to six wins in his first nine games in charges, including a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Premier League leaders Man City.

At home, too, Sunderland are especially strong. The Black Cats recorded a somewhat routine-like 2-0 win over Swansea in their most recent contest at the Stadium of Light, which is gradually beginning to fill again in tandem with the team’s revival in form. It’s now three wins from four at home under O’Neill, who remains undefeated as Sunderland manager on home soil and won’t want that impressive streak to end against one the club’s local rivals.

One of the biggest improvements that I have seen in Sunderland since the arrival of Martin O’Neill has been in defence. Steve Bruce made some astute signings in the summer by bringing in the experienced likes of John O’Shea and Wes Brown, and O’Neill is reaping the rewards. They were strong defensively anyway, but even more so now – QPR are the only team during O’Neill’s nine-game tenure to have netted more than once in 90 minutes, with just seven conceded in all.

A strong defence does bode well for the hosts; progress would be a formality, we feel, should Simon Mignolet keep his third successive clean sheet at home, to go with those earned in victories over Man City (1-0) and Swansea, as Middlesbrough are leaking goals at the minute, particularly away from home having shipped exactly three in recent visits to Blackpool (3-0) and Coventry (3-1) since the start of the New Year.

To compound their issues with form and in defence, Middlesbrough are also missing several key players for this fourth-round tie. Both Kevin Thomson and Julio Arca are suspended after seeing red in last week’s loss at Coventry, goalkeeper Jason Steele is rated doubtful while the influential Nicky Bailey remains a long-term absentee.

Meanwhile, Sunderland boss Martin O’Neill has only one fresh piece of team news is contend with, and that’s news of Nicklas Bendtner’s facial injuries, which will keep him sidelined for around a month. But as one enters the treatment room, another leaves with fellow striker Fraizer Campbell now available following a successful recovery from a serious injury.

Match Pointers

- First meeting between the two north-east clubs for three years, since the pair contested a 1-1 Premier League draw in January 2009.

- Middlesbrough have lost on each of their last two visits to Sunderland, this after winning three on the spin between 2002-2006.

- Sunderland defeated Peterborough 2-0 away from home in the last round while Middlesbrough edged out Shrewsbury 1-0 at home.

- Martin O’Neill has won six and lost two of his nine games in charge of Sunderland since 11 December (W6 D1 L2).

- The Black Cats have lost only once in their last nine matches at the Stadium of Light (W4 D4 L1), and are currently unbeaten in four there.

- Middlesbrough have lost three of their last four matches, with their only success during this dismal run being a 1-0 FA Cup third round victory at home to League Two Shrewsbury.

- Tony Mowbray’s Middlesbrough have won only three of their previous ten away matches, losing five and conceding three in each of their last two (W3 D2 L5).

Betting

I really cannot see past a Sunderland victory here. I’ve said it countless times recently, but Martin O’Neill has his Black Cats purring. Six wins from his nine games in charge is a remarkable achievement when you consider his predecessor only managed two in his last fourteen at the helm. Sunderland have been especially awesome at home, where last week they comfortably beat Swansea 2-0. It was also where they inflicted a rare loss on Manchester City on New Year’s Day.

On just a handful of occasions has Sunderland’s defence been breached during Martin O’Neill’s tenure. Now Middlesbrough are certainly capable of firing past Belgian shot-stopper Simon Mignolet, even if they are far from the most prolific team in the Championship, but defensively they’re a mess and on the back of successive heavy away defeats, to Blackpool (3-0) and Coventry (3-1), I can see Sunderland enjoying a lot more success in the final third than Tony Mowbray’s out of sorts Boro.

Prediction: Sunderland to WIN @ 8/11 Ladbrokes

Value Bet: Sunderland to WIN 3-1 @ 14/1 WilliamHill

Match Odds

Sunderland – 8/11 Ladbrokes

Draw – 14/5 BetVictor

Middlesbrough – 5/1 ToteSport