Sevilla V CSKA Moscow: Champions League Betting

Sevilla V CSKA Moscow

Tuesday, 16^th March – 19:45 GMT

TV Coverage: Sky Sports 3

First Leg: CSKA Moscow 1-1 Sevilla

It was honours even in the first leg, although CSKA might feel their best chance of stamping an authoritative mark on this last-sixteen clash has now passed them by after dominating for most part of the first leg yet only ending the home leg with a draw to show for their in vein efforts. While Mark Gonzalez’s stunning hit from 25 yards was the talking point after the game, arguably the goal of the tournament thus far, the pivotal piece of action came just 25 minutes in as Alvaro Negredo, a summer signing for Sevilla, prodded home Sevilla’s opener after a dangerous ball in evaded both defender and goalkeeper to leave Negredo with an open goal, to which he duly obliged.  

However, while the goal could prove pivotal, as it gives Sevilla the edge via the away goals rule, that was as good as it got for the Spanish travellers as Sevilla rarely troubled Akinfeev’s goal thereafter. Instead, CSKA did all of the pressing, although they displayed signs of a lack of cutting edge in the final third, with the Moscow side reduced to long range efforts for most parts. They did, though, have their opportunity right at the end to win the first contest outright, but Tomas Necid spurred the glorious opportunity, one which could prove costly come the end of Tuesday night.

Who will qualify?

With the first leg ending in stalemate, the away goal, combined with home advantage, has led to bookies confirming their favouritism in Sevilla by cutting their price down from 1.40 before the first leg right down to 1.25 (Bet365) now. In fairness, that’s probably spot on, although a Russian shocker does look rather tasty at 4.30 with Coral – the best price we could find by quite some way.

You would have to favour the Spanish side as not only will they have home advantage on their side but they sit in comfort on the away goal they scored back in Moscow, or do they? While you would expect a more livelier display this time around from Sevilla, simply because they now boast home advantage, CSKA have been known to punish sides with a clear attacking intent on the break, so if Sevilla do commit too many forward then CSKA could counter with a quick attack of their own. Even so, Sevilla should have the experience within their ranks to see of their Russian adversary’s, while the class the posses up front should be enough to score a few on the night, and, should they outscore the Russians, would see Sevilla sail through to the next stage of the competition.

Sevilla

Outright Odds: 22/1 bWin

Like most of the eight teams playing this week, Sevilla didn’t get the victory they needed before their crunch second leg encounter with CSKA Moscow at the Ramon Sanchez stadium in the south of Spain. However, the team from Seville have an immaculate record against Russian opponents, having won their previous two knock-out encounters with a side from the East of Europe, so will the omens stack up in their favour as they aim to build upon their first leg advantage, that solely based on their solitary away goal scored back in Russia. 

The Audalusian club also boast a nifty looking record at home thus far, winning their group games with Unirea Urziceni (2-0) and Rangers (1-0) whilst drawing 1-1 with Stuttgart, a team who drew with Barcelona just a few weeks ago. However, the club are going through a sticky patch of form at present after going just over a month without winning at home, drawing their last two home fixtures in La Liga. The last of them was at the weekend, a 1-1 draw with Deportivo, in a game where Manolo Jimenez fielded the strongest possible side, with only Luis Fabiano the only notable absentee from the starting eleven. 

Sevilla are, though, in a prominent position, both back in La Liga and in respect to this tie as their goal in Moscow gave then the narrow lead with the away goal rule. However, they can ill-afford to rest on their laurels as the tie is still evenly balance, although Sevilla will be favourites due to home advantage and their strong record at home this season.

Only two teams have beaten them at home this season, with those being shock defeats to Getafe and Racing Santander. However, both Real Madrid and Valencia have been dispatched by Sevilla at the Ramon Sanchez stadium in La Liga, so Sevilla certainly have the credentials to beat their Russian last-sixteen opponents, but will their strong looking CV equate into victory? We would say so as even the best have faltered there this season.

CSKA Moscow

Outright Odds: 200/1 bWin

The team from Moscow in Russia scraped through their group consisting of Man Utd, Besiktas and Wolfsburg to get this far, but has their best chance of making the quarter-finals gone with that draw back in Moscow? The bookies seem to think so as very few rate CSKA’s chances heading to Spain, but, however, the Russian side do have a victorious past in Spain when winning in their only previous visit to the country 18 years ago when beating Barcelona. That was a major upset back then and the defeat of Sevilla on their own patch would rate just as big of a shock.

We think it’s fair to say that CSKA Moscow are the weakest team still left in the competition, which will go without saying in fairness. Not only does their reputation fall several ounces below that of the remaining teams but their squad just looks too ordinary on paper, while their performances in the group stage of the competition were hardly breathtaking. Still, as the old famous saying goes, “You’ve got to be in it, to win it” and CSKA still have their lottery ticket, grasped ever so tightly, but will they relinquish their hold on the last-sixteen with a somewhat expected defeat in Spain?

We can’t see anyway CSKA can beat their Spanish opponents other than some sublime counter-attacking play, which certainly isn’t beyond them. In fact, I remember watching them at Old Trafford during the groups and they tore United to shreds on the break, although that was effectively the Untied reserves at the time. Even so, they displayed enough pace and vigour on the counter to have us thinking they aren’t completely out of this tie just yet, and that CSKA do have goals in them.

We do have the evidence to back up CSKA’s case for goals as they’ve been lethal in their away encounters thus far, whilst remaining fairly tamed at home. The former Russian champions scored ten goals during their six group fixtures, the same amount as group winners Man Utd, but the most interesting fact of them all was that over half (6) were from their away encounters, which just goes to show that when the pressure shackles are released from their heavy ankles, CSKA can come out to play. Plus, with Sevilla looking to take the game to CSKA on the night, the side from Moscow will have plenty of opportunities to stretch their legs with some lightening fast breakaways.

Match Verdict: Draw – 4.00 VCbet

We do like Sevilla, really like them in fact, but my gut keeps telling me that a shock could be on the cards here, and that CSKA Moscow could be the team to deliver us with the goods. While Sevilla will look to ask the questions from the off, CSKA will instead sit back and try to absorb the Sevilla pressure, with the objective for them being to hold back and unleash some lightening fast breakaways. They proved in their three away encounters in the group that they do have the quality to make this counter-attacking tactic work, so we feel a small punt on the Russian’s avoiding defeat in Spain could be worthwhile.  

However, it is also worth remembering that Sevilla do have the better quality of players, with their forwards good enough to get on the starting line up for most teams. They know how to keep the ball for long periods of time, they have bags of patient and can unlock any defence with some quick one-two’s and give-and-goes. Sevilla are a difficult team to keep up with and should at least score a couple on the night in what we feel could be a thrilling encounter.

Match Odds:

Sevilla – 1.57 SkyBet

Draw – 4.00 VCbet

CSKA Moscow – 7.00 VCbet