Manchester United V AC Milan: Champions League Betting (Last Sixteen)

Manchester United V AC Milan

Wednesday, 10^th March – 19:45 GMT

First-Leg: AC Milan 2-3 Manchester United

The first leg of this intriguing and attractive tie between two giants from their respective countries was exciting from start to finish, with end-to-end football and some classy finishing. The San Siro encounter between two rather familiar foes was settled by one man, and one man only, Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney, whom is enjoying his best ever season at the club. His second half brace, both of which coming from the Englishman’s head, nodded the current English champions into a first leg lead, a lead strongly bolstered by three away goals. Rooney’s brace, aided by Paul Scholes’s opener for United, leaves the Italians needing to score at least twice at Old Trafford, although they would need to do so without the home side replying if they wish to progress further in the competition.

There was next to now controversy in this affair, just some clinical finishing from a Mr. Wayne Rooney of Man Utd. Whereas Milan were fluffing their lines in the opening 45 minutes, Rooney was thinking smart with his head as he nodded home twice in the second period to put Man Utd 3-1 up. A late Seedorf strike meant Milan at least ended the first-leg with some lingering hope, although their task ahead appears a mammoth one as they need several goals at Old Trafford in what should prove to be an exciting, all-out-attacking affair back in Manchester.

It’s unsurprising that Manchester United, after their impressive win back at the San Siro, are the favourites to progress, but have the bookies overstepped the mark with their obscene odds of 1.10 and worse on United qualifying? While the reigning English champions do have a two goal advantage in theory, plus home advantage, the Italians are in an do-or-bust situation where they were expected to dwindle out of the competition without much fuss. Leonardo’s team know they need to score, probably a good three of four times, but with this in mind the players will want to play as far up as the pitch as possible and will look to strike at every possible opportunity. Of course, the task if massive, but we see some small ounces of value in AC Milan to qualify, even if it’s just our betting pride getting in the way on what we feel is ridiculous qualifying odds for both sides.

Manchester United

Outright odds: 11/2 Bet365

While the return of David Beckham back to his spiritual home will capture the imagination and attention of most neutral onlookers, the Manchester United fans will have their minds set firmly on the task at hand, and that’s fending off what’s expected to be a barrage of AC Milan attacks as the home side aim to defend their one goal aggregate lead, although they lead by two due to the away goals rule. United’s sensational result at the San Siro, winning 3-2, has meant the bookies have gone to town with their price, slashing it from around the 1.33 marker before the first-leg right down to around the 1/10 mark, but will last years runners-up justify their ridiculously short odds by earning victory at Old Trafford this coming Wednesday night?

Anyone with half a brain cell would make Man Utd the favourites to progress, firm ones at that, but that doesn’t mean their price, a best price it has to be said, of 1.10 with totesport is a decent one, far from it. In fact, we believe United are in a tricky scenario as they won’t actually know which tactic would be most effective at Old Trafford, what with the Red Devils boasting a 3-2 lead from the first leg in Italy. Should they set out to defend for the entirety of the game, with the plan being to repel all Milan invaders, or should they look for that killer opening goal, one which would kill the tie stone dead. Now, most traditional European sides would go for option 1, but Alex Ferguson is no traditional manager, and nor are Man Utd a traditionally predictable team, so expect a quick fire start from United with the aim being to strike the first blow.

Some news that could potentially alter United’s chances of success significantly is the doubts surrounding the fitness of Wayne Rooney. The Englishman is having problems with his knee at this moment in time and missed his sides narrow, and somewhat fortunate 1-0 victory away at Wolves on Saturday. His absence left a huge void up front, one Fergie failed to fill as United were void of ideas in the final third, with chances few and far between without the creative flair and sheer thinking brilliance of their most valuable asset. Should Rooney not be fit in time then United may have to attend a back-to-the-walls meeting at the back as it’s hard to see anyone in that United squad having as much guts and courage to take take the game to Milan. 

The good news though is that Rio Ferdinand is back playing at the heart of the United defence alongside Nemanja Vidic. The two form a sturdy and reliable last line of defence for Manchester United, although should Pato make an expectant start the pair could be troubled once again by pace, while Ferdinand will have had nightmares over the torment he endured at the hands of Ronaldinho at the San Siro, with Rio’s lack of fitness a clear problem that night as the Brazilian waltzed past the England captain. United fans will be hoping he’s sharper for his 90 minutes of action at the weekend, and so will the rest of the defence as they finally form back into a familiar back four of old, one that was so successful in keeping sides out last season.

AC Milan

Outright odds: 66/1 SkyBet

It’s plain for all to see that Milan need plenty of goals at Old Trafford, so the question I hear you all asking is can they actually score enough to make this an exciting contest? – Well, we believe so, you need look no further than their list of forwards to see that this Milan team does have goals in them: Ronaldinho, Alexandre Pato, Marcos Borriello, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Flippo Inzaghi, it’s an endless list of striking talent, with a mixture of ingenuity and craft, youth and experience; Leonardo really does have just about everything at his disposal as far as strikers are concerned, so there can be no excuses. 

The next question you should be asking yourself is do Milan have the strength of mind to defend in a tidy manner for the full 90 minutes, and possibly then some, as a single United goal would probably end this as a contest when you consider AC need to win by a clear two goal margin. There is of course the outside permutation of Milan somehow surpassing the two goal marker and scoring three at Old Trafford, which would be some feat, but still feasible for a side boasting an array of quality up front. In regards to the first question, however, we would have to say no, at least not against a Man Utd side with Wayne Rooney in it. The Rossoneri have yet to keep a clean sheet in the Champions League this season, so it’s probably asking a little too much of them to record their first of the campaign at Old Trafford, although it’s a must really if they want to harbour any real aspirations of reaching the quarter-finals.  

We will say though, Milan are the value bet when you take into consideration that they of the two need to play attacking football in order to bridge the two goal deficit. They should, in theory anyway, be the team asking all the questions at Old Trafford despite this not actually being a home tie for them. Their opponents will be more inclined to sit on the back foot and protect their first-leg lead, so the omen is on Milan to make the breakthrough, one which must come early if possible. Ronaldinho of AC Milan did land the first blow in the San Siro encounter a few weeks ago, but can the Brazilian shine on English soil or will he be one of many world class players which fails to make an impression on the onlooking English public?

Our Verdict: AC Milan to WIN -6.00 PaddyPower

The deciding factor for us was the price of the two sides, and of course the pairs motives. United are in that difficult mindset where they honestly feel they have a more than healthy lead, one which shouldn’t be bridged even by one of Europe’s giant clubs. They will be unsure as to how much time should be spent in the attacking third and their own half, and that’s scary against a Milan side who know what they have to do: Attack! For us, considering Milan are glorious odds and have to win, the away side are the only team worth backing, especially if Wayne Rooney isn’t fit in time. Should Rooney start then perhaps United are worth a punt, but we certainly wouldn’t take a stab at Manchester United in this game without their most influential player.

AC know what they have to do and they are equipped to achieve their target. They basically have an entire front-line wanting to prove a point and that’s a pleasing factor for any manager, regardless of their poor vein of form recently. The return of Pato from injury is also a welcome one, plus the Brazilian will be fresher than most after spending the weekend with his feet up… Lovely!

Match Odds:

Manchester United – 1.67 Bet365

Draw – 3.75 SkyBet

AC Milan – 6.00 PaddyPower