Liverpool V Atletico Madrid Betting: UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa League: Semi-Final, Second Leg

Liverpool V Atletico Madrid

Thursday, 29^th April – 20:05 (GMT)

Anfield, England

TV Coverage: Channel 5

First Leg: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool

Liverpool

Outright Odds: 4.50 PaddyPower

The most successful team in UEFA’s second tier competition, Liverpool – A shared honour – are on the brink of exiting the competition after suffering a first leg defeat in Madrid seven days ago. It was an old foe which dealt the blow as Diego Forlan’s scruffy goal gave the Madrid based club the aggregate advantage going into the deciding second leg. But the Reds have been in a similar position in the previous two rounds against Lille and Benfica and have overhauled a first leg defeat on both occasions back at Anfield, so there should be little to fear from the Liverpool players, at least that would have been the case had they had their talismanic forward available for selection.

At the Round of 16 stage Liverpool suffered a 1-0 defeat in Lille to leave the tie poised. The did the same in Portugal when they lost 2-1 to Benfica. On both occasions, though, they stormed through the second leg at a rampant Anfield and finished the tie as worthy two-legged winners. However, with their backs against the walls Liverpool knew they had a match winner in Fernando Torres to call upon for the return leg, and the Spaniard duly repaid the faith by scoring twice in both of the Anfield ties. On this occasion, however, Rafael Benitez does not have the luxury of calling on Torres for forward inspiration, and with his Liverpool side needing goals to go through, the Reds could find themselves considerably short of fire-power in the final third with Torres now missing for the remainder of the season.

Fans will be in full voice at Anfield in what is likely to be another atmospheric evening in the Liverpool Cauldron. We, however, have our doubts about Liverpool’s capabilities to overhaul Madrid’s aggregate advantage without a world-class striker in sight. Just where are the goals going to come from? David N’Gog has been found wanting on plenty of occasions this season, and has looked lightweight especially in Europe. Dirk Kuyt no longer has that striking instinct which he had at Feyenoord after spending all his time on the wing for Liverpool, while Ryan Babel has continued to frustrate his Liverpool followers. We suppose the burden falls once again onto Captain fantastic, Steven Gerrard. Fortunately for Liverpool fans, Gerrard appears to be back to his best after a Man of the Match display at the weekend which seen him collect two goals as a reward.

We’re not overly confident about Liverpool’s chances as not only do we have reservations about the strength of their forward options, their opponents are a dangerous side and have players themselves, arguably more potent than that of Liverpool, which can score a goal at any moment. The Liverpool defence and a world-class Pepe Reina will need to be in tip-top form on Thursday night, with the clean sheet paramount. Then Liverpool can hopefully snatch a couple themselves and sneak through. They’ve tended to race through their second legs in previous rounds by scoring plenty of goals. We just don’t see that happening this time around.

Atletico Madrid

Outright Odds: 3.75 Coral

The Spanish team have put one foot in the final after Diego Forlan’s scrappy goal at the Vicente Calderon in the first leg gave them a first leg aggregate lead heading over to the cauldron that is Anfield. The Madrid based club drew 1-1 at Anfield in their last European visit during the 2008-2009 UEFA Champions League campaign which seen Atletico Madrid finish in the same group with Liverpool. The same scoreline on Thursday would suit Atletico down to the ground, as Quique Flores’ team will progress into the inaugural Europa League final so long as they don’t lost in Liverpool.

A 1-0 goal lead is a always a precarious position as sides often struggle to fight off the mental debate of whether to push on and build on the narrow advantage or to sit and protect. We’ve seen a fair bit of Atletico Madrid this season and feel it’s fair to say they aren’t much cop at defending, so attacking in a bid to get that elusive, perhaps even killer away goal seems the sensible approach, while Quique does have the quality up top to get the necessary goal they need. Diego Forlan has been prolific in Spain and has bagged a couple of Golden Boot’s during his time in sunny Spain. Simao has a past with Liverpool after his two goals at Anfield in his last visit as a Benfica player sent the Reds out of Europe at the knock-out stage, while Kun Aguero is back for the second after missing the first leg through suspension.

Atletico have several tricky customers, players which could potentially wreck Liverpool’s dreams of winning their fourth UEFA Cup and becoming the competitions most prestigious team. However, for all their striking talent, they lack composure at the back and they often make stupid and costly mistakes in defence. They’re now facing a Liverpool side which has scored 10 goals in their three home legs in the competition, a team with the biggest pedigree of all the teams still standing, by some distance. It’s an intimidating trip for Atletico Madrid to make especially for a team which has massively underachieve and disappointed through the season.

Every team wishes to take some sort of advantage into the second leg with them, the bigger the better, and while Atletico did work hard to get their 1-0 win back in Spain, it’s a score which isn’t exactly formidable and one which can easily be overturned. However, what we have here is an Atletico side which has performed far better on the road in Europe than back on home soil. The team often overshadowed by Real Madrid have scored two goals in both of their away legs in the knock-out stages and have thrived on playing in their famous counter-attacking manner. The break out of defence at a rate of knots, slicing through the opposing defence before calmly passing the ball into the net it seems. It’s a tactic they will use to their advantage on Thursday as they aim to sit back and protect their one goal aggregate lead but, at the same time, look to break from defence and seek out that killer away goal, one which would leave Liverpool rocking and Madrid on the verge of a European final.

Match Verdict: Liverpool to WIN – 1.62 PaddyPower

It’s going to be one of those nervy nights we feel. You’ll Never Walk Alone will ring out aloud from the Kop, the Shankly flag will be passed around from fan to fan, while the atmosphere, excuse the cliché, will be electric.

However, this Atletico Madrid side is handmade to dampen the mood and they’ve been a naughty customer in each of their away knock-out encounters thus far. They will play on the counter, looking to exploit any gaps in the Liverpool defence should they overcommit. Madrid put two past Valencia in the previous round in Valencia, while they put another two past Sporting Lisbon in Portugal, so they’re no away mugs.

Liverpool, though, they just seem to come good when the pressure is really on, and when the fans are right behind them urging them forward, they rarely disappoint. The problem we can see arising is a flurry of missed chances from you know who, David N’Gog. The fans need another inspirational performance from their captain, Stevie G, if they are to fend off the treat and challenge of Madrid. Grab a cushion as this could be a roller-coaster ride of emotion if you’re a Liverpool fan.

Match Odds

Liverpool – 1.62 PaddyPower

Draw – 4.00 BetFred

Atletico Madrid – 6.00 Boylesports