Fulham V Newcastle – Saturday, 21 January 2012

Fulham V Newcastle

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 21 January 2012 – 15:00 GMT

Venue: Craven Cottage

Preview

In contrasting moods, Fulham and Newcastle meet at Craven Cottage on Saturday in a fixture that has always been far too close to call. The good news, though, is that draws have been few and far between – just one in their previous nine meetings in the top flight – although, if there is to be a decisive outcome, recent history would suggest it will be by the odd goal.

Since the 2006/07 season, the pair have clashed nine times in the Premier League; Newcastle winning just the three to Fulham’s five, while there has been just the one draw. Of those eight decisive outcomes, seven were by a one-goal margin. Last season’s corresponding fixture followed this very same pattern, with Fulham recording their sixth win in nine Premier League home games versus the Magpies with a 1-0 success at the Cottage.

Bet365 offer alluring odds of 3/1 on another narrow home success for Fulham, who are bidding to claim all the spoils in this fixture for the third year running. Newcastle meanwhile, whose last victory at Craven Cottage came in December 2007 with a 1-0 scoreline, are 9/2 to repeat the feat and win by one goal.

The Magpies did exact their revenge at the beginning of this season however, winning 2-1 at St James’ Park back in August thanks to a well-taken brace from Leon Best. It was Best who struck the only goal of the game last weekend as well, as Newcastle edged out QPR, at home, to record their second consecutive league win, to go with their sensational 3-0 win over defending champions Man Utd, and climb above Liverpool into sixth, level on points Arsenal who occupy a Europa League berth.

Could it be that the club dares dream of European football next season? The £10million January acquisition of Senegalese striker Papiss Demba Cisse would suggest so, although Newcastle fans will have to wait until the completion of the forthcoming African Cup of Nations before they catch a glimpse of their latest African goal-getter. If this Demba is anything like the one they currently have, goals could be a speciality on Tyneside from now on.

Fulham did actually begin the campaign in Europe via the Europa League, exiting at the group stage. A return, however, isn’t imminent due to a lacklustre season to date. Martin Jol’s side have struggled for consistency all season (W5 D8 L8), failing to record back-to-back league wins under his tenure so far.

Last week’s 3-1 loss to Blackburn was a new low for the Dutchman and his clan, who, despite boasting a numerical advantage for the best part of an hour, failed to overhaul the Premier League’s then bottom side. Now they seek home comforts, and they’ll hope to take some inspiration and belief from their recent exploits at Craven Cottage having recorded narrow wins over Liverpool (1-0) and Arsenal (2-1) either side of the New Year.

Match Pointers

- Leon Best’s brace in the reverse meeting, at St James’ Park in August, handed Newcastle a 2-1 win, with American Clint Dempsey popping up late on with a consolation for the Cottagers.

- In their last seven top flight meetings, only twice have both teams got on the scoresheet (So Both Teams to Score does not look promising).

- Newcastle have suffered defeat by a one-goal margin on four of their last five visits to Craven Cottage in the Premier League, and on each of the previous two.

- Fulham slipped to 14TH following defeat to ten-man Blackburn last week, although they did record a 2-1 win over Arsenal last time out at Craven Cottage.

- The Cottagers have claimed four of their five Premier League victories this season at home (W4 D3 L3), where they score twice as many goals and do boast the scalps of Arsenal (2-1) and Liverpool (1-0).

- Alan Pardew’s Magpies are up to 6TH after their recent successes at home, recording to nil wins over Man Utd (3-0) and QPR (1-0).

- On their travels, however, Newcastle have won only one of their previous five – a 2-0 win at struggling Bolton – losing heavily at Liverpool (3-1), Man City (3-1) and Norwich (4-2) during this dismal travelling sequence.

- Newcastle have scored in all but one of their ten away Premier League games so far this term, which was a 0-0 draw at QPR on 12 September.

Betting

Prediction: Fulham to WIN – 21/20 Ladbrokes

Such a tough one to call, this; Fulham’s recent home form is strong with three wins from four, including impressive scalps of Arsenal and Liverpool, but Newcastle arrive in fine form themselves – they’re searching for their third consecutive league win – and are usually so well organised under Pardew.

Key players are however missing for the visitors, who managed to ground out a 1-0 win at home to hapless QPR last time out despite being without African stars Chieck Tiote and Demba Ba. They coped well considering, but they were playing at home against woeful opposition – QPR went into that game without a win in eight in the league. Fulham away will be far tougher; the Cottagers are so resilient and hard-working at Craven Cottage, where they tend to play with more fluidity and score with more regularity.

There will be some wounded egos in that Fulham dressing room following last week’s Blackburn humbling, so I expect a response from Martin Jol’s beleaguered side, against a Newcastle team who go travelling for the very first time without two integral cogs in their machine.

Value Bet: Fulham to WIN by 1 Goal (Winning Margin) – 3/1 Bet365

This was inevitable, right? All six of Fulham’s previous wins over Newcastle in the Premier League were by a one-goal margin, including the last two meetings at Craven Cottage. Martin Jol’s men have also beaten Arsenal and Liverpool at home recently – no prizes for guessing the margin of success in both.

Match Odds

Fulham – 21/20 Ladbrokes

Draw – 12/5 PaddyPower

Newcastle – 3/1 BetVictor