Fiorentina V Bayern Munich: Champions League Betting (Last-Sixteen)

Fiorentina V Bayern Munich

Tuesday, 9^th March – 19:45 GMT

First Leg: Bayern Munich 2-1 Fiorentina

On the same night Arsenal were losing in controversial circumstances, Fiorentina were unfortunately in Germany falling foul to the very same evil fate. An 89^th minute header from Munich veteran, Miroslav Klose, sealed an enthralling first leg win for the Germans, although it was the team from Italy who should have departed from the Allianz Arena with all the plaudits as their performance merited at least a draw, despite being reduced to 10 men during the second period, of which Gobbi will now miss the return leg.

Their were several controversial moments in the first clash in Germany, with the opener being Gobbi’s dismissal with just 15 minutes left to play. However, it got worse when Ovrebro, the famous referee in the Chelsea-Barcelona game at Stamford Bridge last season, missed a blatant dangerous challenge by Miroslav Klose, a tackle which probably should have been met with a red card. This never materalised though, something that would later haunt the Italians, as well as the poor referring on the night, as with 89 minutes on the clock Klose stabbed home Bayern’s winner, although, not only should the German forward had possibly seen red a little earlier, he was clearly standing in an off-side position when the ball was played through, and we mean CLEARLY!

Fiorentina, or Viola as we will call them now they’ll be sporting their famous purple kit back in Florence, shown bags of spirit and endeavour, even if they were short on their luck. However, the past cannot be changed and this is where the hard work begins as manager Cesare Pradelli sets out to master-plan Fiorentina’s progression into the Quarter’s with victory back on home soil. However, the bookies don’t like his chances as Bayern travel over to Florence as the overwhelming favourites to progress, with 1.40 currently the best price you can get on Bayern Munich qualifying for the quarter’s with BetFred. Fiorentina, however, are far bigger at 3.30 with bWin, and look enormous odds to overcome a Bayern side who were hardly intimidating in the first leg. Viola return home to familiar surroundings and their ‘To Qualify’ price quote looks one of immense value in our eyes.

Fiorentina

Outright odds: 80/1 VCbet

Fiorentina’s hopes of defying the odds in qualifying for the quarter-final of the Champions League were given yet another setback after defeat at home to Juventus last Saturday. The Florence based team are going through a sticky patch of form back home, having won just once in Serie A in an almost baron two month spell, but can they put their poor league form aside as they welcome Bayern Munich to Artemio Franchi Stadium in a competition which has provided Viola with a welcome distraction from their poor domestic affairs.

Fiorentina were resilient, if not stubborn, in the opening leg, restricting Bayern to meaningless chances for the best part of 45 minutes before Arjen Rooben opended the scoring. They travelled to Germany with high ambitions of holding out for a draw, a result which would have left Viola in the driving seat had they of earned what they initially set out for. The draw was what they deserved if truth be told, but they had no choice but to settle for a bitter defeat come the end as Miroslav Klose’s 89^th minute header left the travelling Fiorentina support heartbroken after a gruelling affair back in Germany. However, there were plenty of positives to take from their first-leg encounter; the fact Bayern were made to look like pussy cats in comparison to their intimidating global reputation, the rare glimpses of goal Fiorentina restricted Bayern to, and their crucial away goal scored by Kroldrup which leaves this tie still firmly in the balance. 

It’s definitely worth pointing out that Cesare Prandelli, a wanted man at the helm of Fiorentina by many top clubs around Europe, will be without both Adrian Mutu and Gobbi for this second leg clash with Bayern. Gilardino is likely to take up the role of lone striker, while the biggest danger posed by Fiorentina will come in the form of Montenegro wonder-kid, Steven Jovetic. The small forward, whom is an eyesore with his afro styled hair, is just 20 years-of-age but is already shaping up as one of Viola’s more influential figures. Jovetic is so often the architecture in Fiorentina’s forward plays and fans back home in England might remember him fondly for his neatly taken two goal haul at home to Liverpool in the group stages earlier in the campaign. 

Fiorentina’s drastic league form is a huge concern as the morale in camp won’t be be especially high what with Fiorentina floundering in mid-table in Serie A. – a million miles off their fourth place finish of last season. Some of the natives back home have used this very competition as a lousy excuse as to why their team hasn’t been performing back home in the league, and while that could be a valid point, to be the very best you have to manage your battles on all fronts and that’s something Viola simply haven’t managed to do this season. Still, victory, along with qualification for the last-eight of Champions League, would go some way to making it up to their fans for their lacklustre efforts back home in Italy and we feel that’s a strong possibility seeing as they only need one goal.

Bayern Munich

Outright Odds: 14/1 Boylesports

The powerhouses of Germany, Bayern Munich, have the ball in their side of the court after somehow snatching victory from a tight first-leg encounter, one that appeared destined to end in stalemate. Their vital win back home in Germany probably wasn’t a deserved one but it’s a result which sets them up perfectly as they head over to Italy in the mindset that, should they avoid defeat in Florence, they would qualify for the next stage of the competition. However, they ideally need a goal in Italy as were this be a tight affair, as expected, one goal from the home side could be enough to take Fiorentina through on the away goals rule should Bayern not respond with a goal of their own, so despite leading on aggregate Bayern’s job is far from done. 

Louis Van Gaal needs to put some careful thought into which tactic to use ahead of Tuesday nights clash. If Bayern sit back and try to absorb the Fiorentina attacks, all it would take is one goal to send Bayern home empty handed and out of the competition. However, were they to choose the attacking option, with the aim being to quickly grab a crucial away goal, one which would leave Fiorentina needing two goals at least just to take this tie into extra-time, it could potentially leave Bayern’s defence exposed and open to exploitation when Fiorentina roam forward. Van Gaal will haveto go for a balancing act; attacking in an efficent manner, without the need for overcomitting as their main priority will be to defend their one goal advantage of theirs, with scoring an away goal a close second.

Bayern Munich are more than capable of scoring in Florence due to the array of striking talent at the club; Arjen Robben & Franck Ribery are a right handful down the flanks with their pace and skill, while their vision to not only spot the ideal pass but to deploy it with deadly accuracy makes them extremely dangerous and a serious threat on the break, while Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez are proper strikers in that they are more than accomplished with the ball at their feet, but the pair also have this predatory instinct, especially Klose who scored a predators goal in the first leg, that famous off-side goal that never officially was off-side. Moreover, Bayern’s previous visit to Italy was just before the Christmas break in a pivotal, and evidentially qualifying decider, against Juventus in Turin. Bayern knew they had to win that night and did so with aplomb, smashing four past Juventus in a 4-1 victory. They set down a marker that night that they could score any number of goals when asked too, but will they meet the expectations this time around in their second visit to Italy in as many months.

Unlike their last-sixteen opponents, Bayern do have some solid league form under their belts and, crucially, some staggeringly high momentum behind them. While Bayern have only managed two draws in their last two away outings back in the German Bundesliga, the current leaders of the German league have gone a mouthwatering eighteen league games without defeat. It’s a run that stretches way back to September of last year. More importantly, however, eight of those eighteen unbeaten games were away fixtures, a statistic which should breathe confidence into the Munich players. They did, however, succumb to defeat in Bordeaux back in the Group stage, losing 2-1 to the French champions. The defeat in France was the evidence needed that the German giants are beatable, even if they are one of the more formidable teams left in the competition.

Our Verdict: Fiorentina to WIN – 2.90 Bet365

Call us silly, perhaps even foolish, but our gut instinct is saying Fiorentina will be the side progressing at Bayern’s expense, while the only way that will happen is with victory in Florence, so that’s our short and uneventful story on how we came across a Fiorentina punt. We expected so much more from Bayern in the first leg, yet throughout the course of their Champions League campaign they fail to meet the demands set upon them by us and their passionate fans. The Germans were in colossal form when they last visited Italy, beating Juventus 4-1, but that was a classy performance from out of nowhere, with Bayern’s away displays generally being patchy, and well below par. Bayern Munich are far too inconsistent for my liking to be taking chunks out of their short price to qualify, and so, preference is for Viola, Fiorentina, to spring the first mini-shock of the knock-out stage by seeing to Bayern Munich. After all, both Liverpool and Lyon have fallen in Florence this season, so what’s to stop Bayern succumbing to same, ill fate.

Match Odds:

Fiorentina – 2.90 Bet365

Draw – 3.40 PaddyPower

Bayern Munich – 2.50 totesport