FA Cup: Round 5 – Saturday 13th, Sunday 14th February
February 11th, 2010 / Matt
Saturday, 12th February
12:00 GMT – Chelsea V Cardiff City
12:45 GMT – Southampton V Portsmouth
15:00 GMT – Derby County V Birmingham City
15:00 GMT – Reading V West Bromwich Albion
17:15 GMT – Manchester City V Stoke City
Sunday, 13th February
13:30 GMT – Bolton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur
15:00 GMT – Fulham V Notts County
15:45 GMT – Crystal Palace V Aston Villa
Live on TV
Southampton V Portsmouth – ITV1
Manchester City V Stoke City – ITV1
Bolton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur – ITV1
Crystal Palace V Aston Villa – ITV1
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Chelsea V Cardiff City
Venue: Stamford Bridge
It’s a dream tie for both sides this, as Chelsea are handed what appears to be a fairly easy route through to the quarter-finals and Cardiff get their fairytale fixture against one of Europe’s top teams. However, Cardiff won’t travel to the capital in the mindset of simply rolling over and handing their fifth round opponents a bye, no, they’ll be giving it everything they’ve got and we do get the feeling that this fixture, the earliest tie of them all this weekend, could feature its fair amount of goals.
Chelsea are the firm favourites, which is unsurprising, with the blues’ a best priced 1/5 or 1.20 with Bet365 Their price won’t get you rich any time soon but it could prove to be a snip come full-time. However, if you’re a cup nostalgic and feel this seasons competition still has a major shock left in it, why not have a small flutter on a Cardiff victory at 18/1 with VCbet. If we’re honest, an away win does look a little far-fetched and perhaps the price of 6/1 on the Draw with Bet365 has more appeal.
Our Views: We can’t see past a comfortable home win for Chelsea as the competition favourites look to bypass their third Championship test of this campaign. However, like we mentioned above, their price isn’t attractive and so perhaps a small wager on the goalscorer markets would be more worthwhile. Didier Drogba looks Chelsea’s more likely scorer after impressing us all season with his goalscoring antics. He is a short though, and the best price on Drogba scoring in 90 minutes is currently 1.73 with Boylesports. However, if want to cheer on the underdog then why not have a small dabble on a former Premiership employee out-witting Petr Chech… Michael Chopra has been in and amongst the goals this season for the Bluebirds and is a very attractive 7/2 with WilliamHill to score in 90 minutes on Saturday.
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Southampton V Portsmouth
Venue: St. Mary’s
This is the game on most peoples lips, even with the neutrals. As two old foes, local foes that is, come together in a passionate embrace as the romance of the FA Cup draws up yet another cracker. However, that’s where the softly-softly ends as this will be a full-blooded affair between two bitter, local rivals as League One Southampton take on Premiership side Portsmouth at St. Mary’s.
The Premiership side, despite all their off-pitch problems, remain the favourites to progress further at the expense of Southampton, with Portsmouth available at 2.50 with Bet365 and a home win for Southampton currently priced at 3.00 with SkyBet. If you think they’ll be more fisty-cuff’s than slick finishing then why not have a pound or two on the draw at a more than decent 3.30 with Irish firm, PaddyPower.
Our Views: It’s D-Day down South and it’s a rare clash between these two sides which makes the occasion that bit more feisty and will attract far more local spectators, from both sides of the coin. We expect all this heated action of the pitch, between the two sets of fans, to be transferred onto the pitch but it should inspire the home side more simply because they have far more home based players than Portsmouth, with Pompey’s players probably not understanding nor caring about this derby and how important it is to the fans. Southampton players, however, will feel and hear just what it means to their fans and will be fired up for this encounter. A home win looks the shout to us, despite a whole league separating the two, with Southampton a tasty proposition at 3.00 with SkyBet.
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Derby County V Birmingham City
Venue: Pride Park
Not one of the more glamorous ties of the fifth round but that will suit both these sides down to the ground and both have a fantastic opportunity to make a rare appearance in the quarter-finals. Both have scraped through the previous rounds by the skin of their teeth so perhaps another tight contest is on the cards between two sides who don’t look particularly strong in the forward department to have us think this will be a goal-fest.
Birmingham, aided by their Premiership status and their form in arguably the most gruelling and physically demanding league in the world, are the favourites by are still a cosy price at 2.30 with Expekt. When you consider that Birmingham have lost just one of their last fourteen in the Premiership, a league Derby County would struggle to get any points in, surely that price is a steal. However, will the Rams, aided by their trump card, which is a rowdy home support, upset the odds by recording a victory without the need of a replay? Well, County are a best priced 3.50 with SkyBet to get the job done at Pride Park, while the draw, which would then lead to a replay at St. Andrews, is a best priced 3.40 with Boylesports.
Our Views: This is one fixture we won’t be delving into as it doesn’t look an attractive affair. However, Birmingham have beaten far beater opponents than Derby County this season, that’s a given, and so their price of 2.30 does look mighty generous. However, we just get the feel that their price will turn out to be too good to be true and so we won’t be getting involved.
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Reading V West Bromwich Albion
Venue: The Madjeski
Reading are rapidly becoming the ‘Giant Killers’ of this FA Cup after claiming the scalps of two Premiership teams already, having beaten Liverpool in Round 3; holding seven time champions to a 1-1 draw at The Madjeski before winning 2-1at Anfield after Extra-Time. And then beating Burnley 1-0 at The Madjeski in Round 4. West Brom, though, have taken a slightly more low-profile approach to the fifth round after beating League One’s Huddersfield Town at the Galpharm 2-0, and then seeing off Championship leaders Newcastle United at The Hawthorns, winning 4-2 in a corker of a game. If this was based on previous round results then Reading would win this tie hands down, but you could say the exact same about their league form in West Brom’s favour… So how do you separate the two on Saturday?!
Well… The bookies have come across the same dilemma and have priced these two up at roughly the same price, with a home win for Reading available with several firms at 2.75 including; SkyBet & PaddyPower, while an away win for the ‘Baggies‘ is slightly shorter at 2.63 with Bet365, which basically means the bookies narrowly give West Brom the vote of confidence. However, we still don’t see an awful lot between them, what with Reading boast home advantage, and another Madjeski draw could be the call, with a Draw available at 3.40 with SkyBet & PaddyPower.
Our Views: This is another tie we wouldn’t dare bet on simply because any team could win. However, if you can somehow pick a winner then you’re on to a decent priced winner as all three options would bring about a very decent return. However, we would have to give the edge to West Brom purely on the basis that they are a much better side than Reading, with the Baggies lying 2nd in the Championship table, with Reading down in 22nd, and West Brom did beat Reading 3-1 at The Hawthorns earlier in the season.
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Manchester City V Stoke City
Venue: City of Manchester Stadium
City’s owners, Man City that is, will be hoping their major spending over the summer will be an investment, and the FA Cup will be their just rewards. However, Stoke have other ideas after putting one of the favourites out in the last round in Arsenal. It’s one of just two all Premiership clashes of the fifth round and it’s a fixture Man City would have wished was far easier.
I didn’t even need to check the odds to know that Man City, with all their riches and expensive players, would be the odds-on favourites to progress into the next round with a win in Manchester. City are a 1/2 shot with some firms; PaddyPower & Expekt, with everyone all going shorter. An away win, however, does look tasty at 15/2 with a very generous, and probably wise, SkyBet. Some will feel Stoke’s best hopes of seeing off City are at The Brittania, so perhaps it could be worth nibbling away at some of the 4.30 currently on offer with Bet365 on the draw.
Our Views: If you’re looking for an outside punt then perhaps the draw is a possibility, but even that could be asking a lot from Stoke City. Man City are immensely strong at home and will take some beating on their home patch, while Stoke are one of the poorest away sides in the Premier League and will do well to walk away from this meeting with a reasonable scoreline in our opinion. Stoke have been struggling too much away from home against far smaller teams in comparison to City and we feel the home side look a very decent bet at half-decent odds. Not the most glamorous of selections but it looks a shoe-in.
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Bolton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: The Reebok
The second all Premiership clash of the round sees Bolton entertain top four hopefuls Tottenham Hotspur at The Reebok stadium in a game that could be more exciting then it looks. Both teams, even a usually dull and rigid Bolton, are playing very attractive football at the moment, with the pair looking very bright in lively in attack. Moreover, both these sides have their own reasons as to why they have to win Sunday’s Reebok contest, which should make this a lively, possibly end-to-end encounter.
Bolton will feel their best opportunity of progressing into the Quarter-Finals is at The Reebok on Sunday and so they’ll be doing their utmost to avoid the draw as winning at White Hart Lane will be tough. Tottenham won’t want the burden of yet another replay and so they’ll be eager to get the job done at The Reebok. The bookies have predictably favoured with Tottenham Hotspur and have them 2.20 favourites with BlueSquare, while a less fancied home win looks very attractive at nearly 3/1, with Coral going 2.75 on a Bolton win. A stalemate, which both sides won’t appreciate, is available at 3.40 with Bet365 & SkyBet.
Our Views: We feel Bolton are great value to come through this tough fifth round fixture with the aid of home support. They are a tough side to beat at The Reebok as Tottenham found out a little earlier in the season when drawing 2-2. They get in you face, close you down but now they look a real force when going forward, breaking fast and getting forward in numbers. It will require a famous workmanlike performance from the home side, but at very generous odds we feel Bolton are more than worth a bet at 3.75 with Coral.
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Fulham V Notts County
Venue: Craven Cottage
It’s hardly the glamour tie of the round but it’s certainly the fairytale one as League Two Notts County try their luck against another of England’s finest in London’s Fulham at Craven Cottage. The Cottagers have been gifted the easiest draw of the lot it would seem and should sail through without too many problems. However, The Magpies will have other ideas and will undoubtedly give it their all in a rare fifth round appearance in the FA Cup and an even rarer appearance at Craven Cottage.
Fulham, because of their squad and their Premiership status, were always going to be the favourites here and it was just a case of how short they would be and whether they were any value. Well, the first thing we thought when we seen their price was ‘WOW‘ as odds of 1.53 with a very generous Bet365 look stunning when you consider Fulham are one of the toughest teams to beat at home in the country. Notts County look far too small for me at odds of 6/1 with PaddyPower, while the draw still doesn’t tickle my fancy at 4.30 with SkyBet.
Our Views: We fancied Fulham’s chances before we seen the prices as they have a far stronger squad and a stunning home record this season. However, we fancied them even more when we seen their price of just over ½ and we’re hoping Fulham prove to be the certs we feel they are. Only Chelsea & Arsenal have beaten Fulham at The Cottage this season, with both Liverpool & Man Utd falling at the wayside their, and we feel Notts County will just be another routine win for The Cottagers.
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Crystal Palace V Aston Villa
Venue: Selhurst Park
Cash strapped Palace will be hoping for another pay-day when they take on Aston Villa at Selhurst Park. However, Neil Warnock’s squad is down to the bare bones and it’s a big enough ask in getting eleven men on the pitch to let alone demand a victory from them so it’s no surprise to see Villa as the strong favourites in this clash. Palace, though, did have the beating of Wolves in the last round, albeit needing a replay, but could find this game too big a challenge.
Crystal Palace‘s money problems has clearly had some impact on the pricing for this game as a fully-fit palace squad, one which would have kept hold of Victor Moses, could have been a right handful for Aston Villa. However, that’s now not the case and their chances of going further do look slim now. They will plug on nevertheless and still look a great bet at 4/1 to upset the odds. Villa to win looks far too short for our liking at 1.83 with VCbet, while the draw (3.60 Boyelsports) could be a wise old bet considering Palace would love a replay simply for the added TV revenue.
Our Views: You would have to fancy the chances of Villa beating Palace at Selhurst Park but their odds aren’t worth touching and preference would probably go in the direction of the home side, whom look a delicious price at 4/1 to overcome Champions League chasing Aston Villa. They proved in the last round that they can compete without their wonderkid, Victor Moses, and that the spirit in the camp is still very high. A big effort from the Palace lads could make this an interesting contest.
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