FA Cup Previews (Saturday’s Games)

January 26th, 2012 / Matt

The 2011-12 FA Cup has reached the fourth round stage and while there is a disappointing shortage of lower league clubs left in the tournament, the draw has thrown up some mouthwatering contests to be played from Friday 27 through to Sunday 29 January.

With six all-Premiership ties and not a non-league side in sight, shocks will be few and far between over the course of the round. But the quality of the ties more than makes up for the distinct lack of underdogs, with Liverpool V Manchester United and QPR V Chelsea just some which catch the eye.

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Blackpool V Sheffield Wednesday (15:00 GMT)

Ian Holloway’s Blackpool were eliminated at only the third round stage in last season’s tournament, bowing out to League One opposition in the form of Southampton. They could suffer a similar fate at the hands of Sheffield Wednesday this weekend, who like Southampton are also going well in the third tier and head into the tie full of confidence.

Wednesday sit prominently in fourth in League One, level on points with the automatic promotion places after a comfortable 3-1 success at Scunthorpe on Tuesday. On the back of their midweek triumph, Gary Megson’s side will take a lot of confidence and momentum into Saturday’s Bloomfield Road contest, where a Blackpool team who thumped non-league Fleetwood Town 5-1 in the previous round reside. But if you thought that performance was impressive, how about Wednesday dumping out West Ham United at Hillsborough – the current leaders of Blackpool’s division, the Championship.

Key Stat: Blackpool have lost just twice at home all season, whereas five of Sheff Wed’s six league defeats this term were suffered on the road.

Match Odds: Blackpool 10/11, Draw 13/5, Sheff Wed 10/3 (BetVictor)

Bolton Wanderers V Swansea City

This all-Premier League meeting genuinely could go either way, as the betting suggests. Hosts Bolton are tentative 6/4 favourites, thanks largely to the fact they’re at home and possibly because they comprehensively defeated Liverpool at The Reebok last Saturday. And with one away win all term, I suppose Swansea were always going to be underdogs in this tie.

Bolton were exceptional against Liverpool in their last match, capitalising on what was a lethargic performance from the visitors, who undoubtedly had one eye on their midweek Carling Cup clash with Man City. There is unlikely to be the same complacency from Swansea, though, who sit eight-points clear of the Premier League relegation zone, which is where Bolton have spent most of the campaign thus far, and scored four times at Barnsley in the third round with striker Danny Graham netting three.

The visitors do appeal at 7/4; they retain possession so well and find themselves up against a team who have spent virtually the entire season so far languishing inside the Premier League relegation zone, and whom have the leakiest defence in the top flight.

Key Stat: Bolton have lost 8 of 11 Premier League home games this season, but Swansea have only been victorious on one occasion away from home against top flight opposition (0-2 Aston Villa).

Match Odds: Bolton 6/4, Draw 23/10, Swansea 7/4 (Bet365)

Derby County V Stoke City

Stoke made it all the way to final last season, before eventually losing the show-piece 1-0 to Manchester City. Emulating that successful forage will be a great deal harder second time around, especially if the draw continues to throw up testing assignment like this. A trip to Pride Park will not be straightforward for Tony Pulis & Co.

As you would expect, Stoke are the favourites. I wouldn’t want to be on them though, not at those odds and certainly not on current form. Their 2-1 home defeat to West Brom last time out meant it’s now one win in six Premier League games for the Potters, while they weren’t entirely convincing in despatching of Gillingham in the last round. They are also notoriously poor travellers, despite going three unbeaten away from home – including an impressive 0-0 draw away to Liverpool.

Furthermore, Derby are in splendid form. Rams boss Nigel Clough has witnessed his side go their last six unbeaten in all competitions, a run which did include five consecutive victories before a creditable 0-0 draw away to Burnley last weekend. They’ve also concede just once during this impressive run, winning four by the clinical score of 1-0.

A 1-0 home win has obvious appeal therefore at 9/1 (PaddyPower), especially with Stoke plundering the fewest number of away goals in the top flight this season (just 8 from their 11 outing so far).

Key Stat: Derby are unbeaten in six, winning five, whereas Stoke have mustered two wins from their previous seven (W2 D3 L2).

Match Odds: Derby 5/2, Draw 23/10, Stoke 11/10 (StanJames)

Hull City V Crawley Town

FA Cup romantics simply could not get enough of Crawley last season. Steve Evans’ Red Devils had to negotiate five rounds before finally seeing their efforts rewarded in the form of a fifth round tie with Manchester United, the most successful club in FA Cup history. Their experience of Old Trafford was one everyone involved with the club will savour forever, and was perhaps even the catalyst for a successful promotion push from the Conference National division, which they won at a cantor.

Now, as a member of the Football League, Crawley are bidding to repeat their giant-killing heroics and must overhaul a team who ply their trade two divisions above them if they’re to reach the fifth round for the second consecutive year. Confidence should be fairly high, with the team currently sat second in League Two, and had this been at home they might well of been favourites. But they’re not, and that could prove problematic for a team who have drawn four on the spin away from home in the league, against teams nowhere near the calibre of their fourth round opponents.

Nick Barmby has enjoyed a dream start to life as Hull City manager, winning seven of his first ten games in charge – four of five at the KC Stadium. He also runs a very tight ship in defence, one that has yet to concede two or more goals in a game under his tutelage, so a clinical display from the home side should see them come out on top for the fourth match in a row.

Key Stat: Hull have won four of their last five matches at the KC Stadium, but Crawley are without defeat in ten away from home.

Match Odds: Hull 4/5, Draw 5/2, Crawley 7/2 (WilliamHill)

Leicester City V Swindon Town

League Two high-flyers Swindon are 6/1 underdogs in their match with Championship side Leicester at the King Power Stadium, this in spite of the fact Paulo Di Canio’s men dumped out Wigan Athletic in the third round after a come-from-behind victory over the Premier League outfit. Value? Based on their prolific form in the competition thus far, I would say so.

Swindon, who have lost only once in 22 games since the beginning of October, have been awesome up till now. Successive 4-0 victories away to Plymouth (League Two) and at home to Huddersfield (chasing promotion in League One) set up a third round clash with Premier League Wigan, who were also no match for Di Canio’s imperious charges as The Robins overcame a 1-0 deficit to win 2-1 at The Country Ground. All they need to complete a remarkable set of scalps is one from the Championship…

Leicester required a replay in order to book their place in the fourth round, although they did so with some style in the end, putting four past Nottingham Forest without reply in a 4-0 home success. They then followed that emphatic win up with a 2-0 triumph away to Southampton, who sit second in the Championship. In this vein of form, the Foxes may well devour The Robins.

Key Stat: Swindon have lost one of their last 22 matches in all competitions; meanwhile, Leicester have won only one of their previous five at home.

Match Odds: Leicester 1/2, Draw 3/1, Swindon 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

Millwall V Southampton

Finalists back in 2003, Southampton are wasting very little time bringing the good times back to St Mary’s. Promotion to the Premier League is on the cards after a scintillating start to the season, with Nigel Adkin’s men occupying second in the Championship with a little over half of the term played, although his team have come right off the boil in recent weeks, winning just two of their previous eight league games in a run which has seen them relinquish top spot to West Ham.

Just two weeks ago Millwall were spanked 6-0 by Birmingham on their own patch. Their response was to thumped Dagenham 5-0 in their FA Cup third round replay, also at The Den, before going to Barnsley in the league and winning 3-1. That makes it two wins on the spin for Kenny Jackett’s team, who do unfortunately hover precariously above the Championship relegation zone, 21 points worse off than Southampton.

They sit at opposite ends of the table, but will that show? Considering Southampton were only 1-0 winners when the sides met at St Mary’s back on August 20, 2010 perhaps not especially as it’s Millwall who go into the tie with the momentum – they’ve won two on the spin whereas Southampton were beaten 2-0 at home by Leicester earlier in the week.

Key Stat: Millwall haven’t recorded a win over Southampton for almost 23-years, failing in their previous nine attempts.

Match Odds: Millwall 15/8, Draw 12/5, Southampton 6/4 (BetVictor)

Sheffield United V Birmingham City

An intriguing clash this, between two former Premier League sides. I actually make Birmingham the favourites, despite Sheffield United boasting home advantage at Bramall Lane.

Chris Hughton’s Blues are flying at the minute, winning their last four matches on the spin which inludes a 1-0 win away to Midlands rivals Wolves in their third round FA Cup replay. Either side of that derby success were emphatic league wins as well, first away to Millwall (0-6) before putting Watford to the sword at home (3-0). So they’ll no no shortage of confidence in the Birmingham camp, that’s for sure.

The same applies to United, too, who are third in League One and are kept out of the automatic promotion spots on goal difference alone. They’ve also won a staggering eleven of their last thirteen in all competitions, winning eight on the spin at Bramall Lane, doing so by an aggregate of 22-5. But Birmingham are far leaner than any opposition they have faced all season., although the Blades have won three of the previous four meetings in Sheffield.

Key Stat: Sheffield United are seeking a ninth consecutive home win; however, Birmingham are on a run of four straight victories.

Match Odds: Sheffield United 8/5, Draw 12/5, Birmingham 8/5 (SkyBet)

Stevenage V Notts County

The draw for the fifth round is guaranteed to include at least one club from League One, which is a good thing, as come the draw Stevenage or Notts Country could be the lowest ranked team left in the competition. However, correctly predicting who will make the cut is excruciatingly difficult.

On current form, Stevenage are sure-fire winners. The club are under new management, with 43-year-old former Colorado Rapids manager (Major League Soccer) Gary Smith replacing Graham Westley, but that did not stop them from recording a 4-2 victory over promotion rivals MK Dons on Tuesday – a result which stretched their unbeaten run to four, having lost the one solitary game since October 8, 2011 (W12 D5 L1).

It is the complete opposite at Notts County, who began the season so well but have fallen so dramatically by the wayside from December onwards. Their 0-0 draw with Preston in midweek extend their winless run in the league to eight games, with their only successful outcome during an otherwise dismal month of football being a 2-0 victory at Doncaster in the third round of the FA Cup.

However, it was Notts County who prevailed when the two sides met for the very first time this season back in August – at Stevenage as well – with the Magpies winning 2-0 at Broadhall Way. Could a repeat be on the cards, or will an in-form Boro exact their revenge?

Key Stat: Notts County’s only win in nine was a 2-0 win at Doncaster in the previous round of this competition, while they were also 2-0 winners over Stevenage in the corresponding fixture back in August.

West Bromwich Albion V Norwich City

Just four points separate them in the Barclay’s Premier League, so one expects there won’t be a great deal to choose between them come full-time at The Hawthorns – as was the case when they clashed at this very ground precisely two weeks ago, a contest that was won 2-1 by the visiting Canaries.

Out of instinct perhaps, bookmakers have installed West Brom as favourites here. I fail to see how they make a side who have not recorded a win at home over top flight opposition in over two months favourites, especially one that has plundered the fewest number of goals on home soil (8, which is less than a goal per game).

Norwich are one of seven teams to have gone to The Hawthorns and won this season, so you’re getting tremendous value on a team who know exactly what it takes to beat the Baggies in their own backyard. Paul Lambert’s men are also in decent form; they’ve lost just one of their last eight top flight fixtures and are currently unbeaten in their last four, which does include back-to-back away wins at QPR and West Brom.

Both teams racked up four goals in the third round, though it was Norwich who produced the more accomplished performance. The Canaries were 4-1 winners at home to Burnley, who were in good form themselves at the time, whereas West Brom edged out Cardiff 4-2 (the final scoreline did flatter Roy Hodgson and his team). This could boil down to which manager fancies it more, as I suspect both Roy Hodgson and Paul Lambert could make several changes to the teams that faced each other a fortnight ago.

Key Stat: Norwich have won more times away from home in the Premier League this season than West Brom have at The Hawthorns, scoring almost twice as many goals to boot (15 away compared with West Brom’s 8 at home).

Match Odds: West Brom 19/20, Draw 11/4, Norwich 13/5 (WilliamHill)

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FA Cup 2011-12 Outright Betting:

Chelsea – 9/2 (PaddyPower)

Manchester United – 6/1 (BetVictor)

Tottenham – 6/1 (StanJames)

Arsenal – 15/2 (Coral)

Liverpool – 10/1 (BetVictor)

Sunderland – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

Newcastle – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

Everton – 25/1 (StanJames)

Stoke – 28/1 (BetVictor)