EURO 2012 Qualifier: Montenegro V Wales – Friday, September 3rd

Montenegro V Wales

Friday, 3rd September – 18:30 GMT
EURO 2012, Group G Qualifier

Montenegro

Zlatko Kranjcar, father of Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Niko, will manage the newest international team on the block as Montenegro aim to qualify for their first major tournament since gaining full UEFA membership in 2007, when splitting from neighbours Serbia. However, Kranjcar has already bemoaned the lack of the country’s most coveted star in Fiorentina’s Stevan Jovetic, who famously scored a brace against Liverpool in the 2009/2010 UEFA Champions League but will not feature for his country against until next year as he recovers from a serious knee injury.

Despite being an active international side for just three years, Montenegro are ranked a modest 72 in the world and find themselves twelve places better off than their Group G opponents Wales in the latest FIFA rankings. That doesn’t, however, entitle Hrabri Sokoolovi to three points and the team will need to battle on gamely without their star player if they wish to make the perfect start to qualifying, although household names are few and far between. One name in particular, though, which does stand out is AS Roma’s clinical finisher, Mirko Vucinic, whom has racked up 9 goals in 19 appearances for Montenegro and will look to inspire team-mates with his goals as he leads by example as team captain.

The home side will feel they have already won the mental battle between themselves and Wales having beaten the Welsh in the only previous meeting between the two, when Montenegro recorded a 2-1 win in Podgorica via goals from Jovetic and Radomir Djalovic. The former is obviously not available to strike again against the Welsh but the fact this fixture is being played in the exact same venue could have a huge baring on the outcome of the game.

Wales

It’s been 44 years since Welsh fans last entertained the fact that they were competing in a major tournament, with the 1976 European Championships their last and only major qualifying triumph for the country since participating in their also one and only FIFA World Cup back in 1958. On both occasions Wales reached the quarter-finals, an omen perhaps should John Toshack complete the Welsh dream and take his country of birth to the 2012 European Championships in Poland-Ukraine.

I don’t know about you Welsh fans out there but this current crop assembled by Toshack seems a half-decent bunch to me, with a useful mixture of hardened Premiership veterans and genuine world-class potential. All Wales fans need to complete the mix would be Ryan Giggs’ announcement that retirement is no longer for him, although that’s an unlikely scenario. To be honest, Wales have a player in the form of the great Ryan Giggs, arguably the greatest Welsh player to have ever lived alongside Ian Rush of course, in Tottenham’s coming of age defender/midfielder Gareth Bale, who in the last couple of seasons has come on leaps and bounds in the Premiership and is beginning to earn the worldwide reputation for being a lethal winger for Spurs.

Taking into account my little knowledge of the Montenegro team, I would say Wales are more than a match for their Group G openers and only need to cast the away factor aside to claim a positive result in Podgorica this Friday. Granted their defence is a little suspect, but the wealth of attacking options now at John Toshack’s disposal finally makes Wales a tidy little force to be reckoned with. The seemingly hostile relationship between manager and Bellamy seems to have diminished as the now Cardiff striker is set to start in Montenegro, of which any one of Simon Church, Ched Evans or Robert Earnshaw would provide a suitable strike-partner, although preference is likely to be for the pace of 29 year-old Robert Earnshaw. It is, though, the amount of creativity in the midfield which impresses us the most and will have Wales fans in unison believing that 2012 could be the year when Wales end their wait for participation in a major tournament.

Match Verdict: Wales to WIN – 4.50 Bet365

You cannot underestimate how much weaker Montenegro are without their linchpin, Stevan Jovetic, who really does make the team tick. Everything positive goes through the Viola playmaker, and now the hopes of a nation rest upon Mirko Vucinic shoulders, just about the one and only remaining high profile name inside the camp.

John Toshack will be missing his fair share of key components too, with Darcy Blake, Brian Stock and Andrew Crofts all dropping out with injuries, but there’s something potent about Wales’ attacking line which has us thinking that perhaps Toshack’s side will produce a performance of high calibre needed to overhaul the Montenegro team on their own patch. The form of two players in particular will be pivotal; Gareth Bale looking to continue where he’s left off for Spurs this season when scoring twice at the weekend in a 2-1 win over Stoke City, while Craig Bellamy now has his confidence and self-belief back following his loan move back to his homeland, Cardiff.

At enticing odds, we’re on the Welsh to spring a mini surprise by beating Montenegro in their own backyard.

Soccer-Betting Value Tip: Craig Bellamy First Goalscorer – 9.00 VCbet

Match Odds:

Montenegro – 1.91 PaddyPower
Draw – 3.40 Boylesports
Wales – 4.50 Bet365