Tuesday, 9^th March

19:45 GMT – Arsenal V FC Porto (1-2)

19:45 GMT – Fiorentina V Bayern Munich (1-2)

Wednesday, 10^th March

19:45 GMT – Manchester United V AC Milan (3-2)

19:45 GMT – Real Madrid V Lyon (0-1)

Matt’s Bets

Nicklas Bendtner Anytime Scorer @ 2.88 Coral (WON!)

With Arsenal lacking forward impotence, Bendtner will be a certain starter as Arsenal take to the Emirates looking for the goals needed to restore parity. The Danish international looks the ideal candidate to open the scoring at 11/2 with Coral, but we’ve been a little more reserved and instead plumped on Arsenal’s donkey of last Saturday being their Tuesday night hero. Bendtner missed a whole host of chances in Arsenal’s 3-1 win at home to Burnley, where Bendtner literally could of bagged two hat-tricks. However, while his lacklustre finishing may have deterred some, the fact he got into such glorious goalscoring opportunities impressed us and we feel it was just a bad day at the office for the Danish international on Saturday, and were the Gunners to hand yet more chances on plate for him this Tuesday, we’re confident he won’t be as wasteful.

Fiorentina Draw No Bet @ 2.05 bWin (WON!)

After a valiant display in Munich, Fiorentina will be hoping for more from the return leg back home in Florence. The Italians frustrated their German opponents in the first leg, with Bayern barely troubling Sebastien Frey in the Fiorentina goal with a decent effort. Italian sides know how to build from the defence up and I’m expecting a clinical performance from Viola in a leg they have to win if they are to progress. Defeat would spell the end, and while victory would probably be enough, unless it’s a high-scoring narrow one, a draw might also suffice if it finishes 1-1. Considering the Italians will probably look to sit on any sort of lead, if and when they get it, the draw could be a viable outcome. However, we wouldn’t discourage anyone from backing Fiorentina to win this home encounter outright so, as to play a tad safe, Fiorentina DNB is is our bet.

AC Milan to Score 3 of More @ 10/1 PaddyPower (LOST!)

Milan know full well they need goals and we expect the away side to sprint out of the blocks in order to not only take the lead but to also avoid an early setback as conceding early would be catastrophic for them, if not deadly. Their forward play in the first leg deserved more than just the two goals but they will need plenty of the same attacking vigour at Old Trafford if they are to pull off one of the best comebacks in recent years. Leonardo has the players at his disposal to score a sufficient amount of goals, most of which actually look stunning bets to score on the night, but we feel a collective performance is needed from Milan if they are to overhaul United’s domineering aggregate lead. Three goals from Milan would make for one enthralling encounter, so while they remain capable of such a feat we will take our chances on them doing so at what we consider immense value.

Lyon to Score 2 or More @ 9/2 PaddyPower (LOST!)

If we’re completely honest, we are more confident in Lyon scoring just the one than going that extra mile and shocking the footballing world with two goals at the Bernabeu, but it’s certainly a no-hoper bet. In fact, we feel it’s not beyond the realms of possibility as Lyon can be lethal on the counter, while their strikes from long range have also been known to rifle into the net. With Madrid looking to attacking at every given opportunity, Lyon will instead aim to absorb the Madrid attacks and return the favour with some quick-fire breaks. It’s been an efficient tactic for the French side down the years and we feel it could prove to be the ‘real’ deal in Madrid, especially as they now posses some more clinical and composed finishers up front, none more so than Lisandro Lopez. Given half-a-chance, Lopez will score, while if Madrid do overcommit, which is a certainty if you ask me, Lyon are more than capable of catching the Madrid defence out.

I wish you the best of luck, Matt.

Real Madrid V Lyon

Wednesday, 10^th March – 19:45 GMT

First-Leg: Lyon 1-0 Real Madrid

In a tetchy first leg encounter in France, Lyon snatched a crucial first leg lead, one most neutrals felt they needed if they wanted to harbour realistic claims for qualifying over two-legs against one of the strongest teams in Europe. Fittingly, it was a stunning strike that handed Lyon some form of initiative after Jean Makoun’s superb strike from around the 30-yard mark sailed past Iker Casillas in the Madrid goal. The backtracking Madrid defence paid the penalty for their reluctance to close the Cameroon international down and, in doing so, handed Lyon a first-leg trump card.

With neither side wanting to give too much space or possession away, evidentially chances were few and far between. It was Lyon, though, who takes there’s and it was the ideal result from a neutrals perspective as it opens this tie up somewhat as the Galacticos were fancied to sail through to their first quarter-final appearance since 2004 at the expense of a stubborn Lyon. That might still be the case but Lyon will now travel to Spain knowing that a spirited, hard-working display in defence just might see them record one of their biggest European feats in their history. French sides have proven down the years to be more than adept at keeping quality teams out for prolonger period of time, so will Real Madrid pay the price for their lacklustre efforts back in France in the first-leg?

Despite boasting a one goal advantage, Lyon are the less fancied of the two to qualify, with Real Madrid a best priced 1.67 with PaddyPower to see off their French opponents with victory back at the Bernabeu. The current tie leaders, Lyon, look a tasty proposition at odds of 2.40 with bWin when you consider the pressure is firmly on their opponents to as all the questions in Spain, while Lyon could deploy their familiar yet world famous tactic of defending with discipline, yet breaking out of defence with numbers and at pace. This tie could be set up nicely for the French side, although the same could be said for Madrid as they know they need to attack in order to obliterate Lyon’s one goal lead. The tie is poised, but which side will grab a place in the draw for the last-eight with both hands?

Real Madrid

Outright Odds: 13/2 BetFred

Dare we say it but Real Madrid, the mighty Madrid, have their work cut out as they set out to overhaul this one goal led of Lyon’s. The Spanish giants will need to pick their way through a stubborn and resilient back line of Lyon’s if they are to win the coveted Champions League crown in their first real season after their high-profiled summer revamp. IN many respects, Madrid were at least expect to make the finals after shelling out hundreds of millions during the summer months of world class talent, but could a shock be on the cards as Real Madrid aim to reach their first quarter-final since 2004.

To be honest, it’s hard not to see Madrid at least levelling the aggregate scoring, such is the prowess of their strength in depth at the club. Moreover, their battling display at the weekend just might have been the catalyst they needed for a tie which requires plenty of determination, tonnes of hunger and plenty of combative qualities. Similar to the situation they face on Wednesday, Madrid found themselves staring down the barrel of defeat as they fell to a 2-0 lead at home to Sevilla on Saturday. This was after Madrid dominated the entire first half but to no avail. However, like all great teams do, Madrid stormed back and two quick fire strikes from Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos put Real back on level terms, lifting both the mood of the fans and the players. It did, however, take an awful long time before the goal that seemed inevitable after Madrid’s second came, with Gonzalo Higuain prodding home an injury time winner to send the home crowd into raptures.

Madrid manager, Manuel Pellegrini, will be hoping for more of the same and that their desire to defy adversity on Saturday was perhaps a sign of things to come. Although the manner in which Madrid fell to a 2-0 deficit was concerning, how Mardrid responded was magnificent and emphatic, and they will now head into this defining second leg with all the momentum and confidence off the back of that sensational comeback.

A burden needs to be lifted from upon Madrid’s shoulders though, as Lyon have not been beaten at the Bernabeu in either of the previous two visits. That was, however, back before Madrid had the likes of Ronaldo, Kaka and Higuain on the books, so we expect a role reversal on Wednesday in that we fancy Madrid to end Lyon’s unbeaten run at the Bernabeu.

Lyon

Outright Odds: 33/1 Boylesports

While Lyon didn’t exactly excel in the opening leg, they did get that ever important victory needed to keep them in with a chance of making the quarter’s. Jean Makoun gave Lyon a valuable first-leg home victory, although had he not of done so then bookies might have taken more of a firm stance on Madrid’s passage into the next round. Instead, however, Lyon are in with a sniff, more than a sniff if you consider their recent form at the Bernabeu; drawing on their previous two visits, scoring on both occasions however.

Lyon will need to maintain their goalscoring trend in Madrid if they are to have any realistic hopes of making the quarter’s, because as strong as Lyon’s defence can be, it’s difficult to envisage Real not scoring at least once back on home soil. Their more glamours opponents have far too much striking talent on show for them not to breakthrough what is an almost infallible Lyon defence at times. However, for all Madrid are worth from an attacking sense, the one thing the Spanish side don’t have is an illustrious away goal, so should Lyon somehow snatch a goal at the Bernabeu, a genuine shock could be on the card.

We honestly feel a goal is needed in Madrid as we don’t see the home side not scoring during the 90 minutes. Manager Claude Puel clearly thinks the same as he rested both Lisandro Lopez and Cesar Delgado ahead of his sides trip to Spain, with the idea being to freshen up the Lyon attack. However, his plan to rest a few of his key players over the weekend backfired as Lyon could only managed a dull 0-0 draw at Boulogne, a team second from bottom in the French Ligue 1. Not only was that draw disappointing but will have halted any momentum Lyon previously had, which was three wins on the spin, four if you include their first leg victory.

For one reason or another we feel Lyon could spring the surprise of all surprise this week as their defensive set up makes them one tough proposition to overcome, especially when you’re chasing a goal or two. French sides are renowned for their experienced defences, back lines with discipline. However, there are very few in the professional business who do it better than Lyon in regards to keeping it neat and tidy at the back, so for all Madrid’s attacking worth, Lyon are the bet to be on in our eyes as we bank on their stubborn resistance not only paying dividends with progression but perhaps with a victory in Madrid as a lengthy spell without a goal for the some side will lead to frustrations boiling over.

Our Verdict: Lyon to WIN – 10.00 SportingBet

The draw is probably the best punt here, but Lyon could snatch an historical win at the Bernabeu providing they maintain their discipline at the back and take their chances when they do come, and trust me, against a Madrid defence which has yet to convince me, they will get chances. Lyon’s odds look far too big for a side which will spend large periods of time defending, yet will break away at pace, with numbers and have the players in the final third with the composure to finish. To be fair, you would have to be brave to have a punt on the home side considering their odds are wafer thin, so whatever the result, we feel a small punt on Lyon is certainly worthwhile, even if it’s for value sake.

Match Odds:

Real Madrid – 1.33 Expekt

Draw – 5.50 Bet365

Lyon – 10.00 SportingBet

Manchester United V AC Milan

Wednesday, 10^th March – 19:45 GMT

First-Leg: AC Milan 2-3 Manchester United

The first leg of this intriguing and attractive tie between two giants from their respective countries was exciting from start to finish, with end-to-end football and some classy finishing. The San Siro encounter between two rather familiar foes was settled by one man, and one man only, Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney, whom is enjoying his best ever season at the club. His second half brace, both of which coming from the Englishman’s head, nodded the current English champions into a first leg lead, a lead strongly bolstered by three away goals. Rooney’s brace, aided by Paul Scholes’s opener for United, leaves the Italians needing to score at least twice at Old Trafford, although they would need to do so without the home side replying if they wish to progress further in the competition.

There was next to now controversy in this affair, just some clinical finishing from a Mr. Wayne Rooney of Man Utd. Whereas Milan were fluffing their lines in the opening 45 minutes, Rooney was thinking smart with his head as he nodded home twice in the second period to put Man Utd 3-1 up. A late Seedorf strike meant Milan at least ended the first-leg with some lingering hope, although their task ahead appears a mammoth one as they need several goals at Old Trafford in what should prove to be an exciting, all-out-attacking affair back in Manchester.

It’s unsurprising that Manchester United, after their impressive win back at the San Siro, are the favourites to progress, but have the bookies overstepped the mark with their obscene odds of 1.10 and worse on United qualifying? While the reigning English champions do have a two goal advantage in theory, plus home advantage, the Italians are in an do-or-bust situation where they were expected to dwindle out of the competition without much fuss. Leonardo’s team know they need to score, probably a good three of four times, but with this in mind the players will want to play as far up as the pitch as possible and will look to strike at every possible opportunity. Of course, the task if massive, but we see some small ounces of value in AC Milan to qualify, even if it’s just our betting pride getting in the way on what we feel is ridiculous qualifying odds for both sides.

Manchester United

Outright odds: 11/2 Bet365

While the return of David Beckham back to his spiritual home will capture the imagination and attention of most neutral onlookers, the Manchester United fans will have their minds set firmly on the task at hand, and that’s fending off what’s expected to be a barrage of AC Milan attacks as the home side aim to defend their one goal aggregate lead, although they lead by two due to the away goals rule. United’s sensational result at the San Siro, winning 3-2, has meant the bookies have gone to town with their price, slashing it from around the 1.33 marker before the first-leg right down to around the 1/10 mark, but will last years runners-up justify their ridiculously short odds by earning victory at Old Trafford this coming Wednesday night?

Anyone with half a brain cell would make Man Utd the favourites to progress, firm ones at that, but that doesn’t mean their price, a best price it has to be said, of 1.10 with totesport is a decent one, far from it. In fact, we believe United are in a tricky scenario as they won’t actually know which tactic would be most effective at Old Trafford, what with the Red Devils boasting a 3-2 lead from the first leg in Italy. Should they set out to defend for the entirety of the game, with the plan being to repel all Milan invaders, or should they look for that killer opening goal, one which would kill the tie stone dead. Now, most traditional European sides would go for option 1, but Alex Ferguson is no traditional manager, and nor are Man Utd a traditionally predictable team, so expect a quick fire start from United with the aim being to strike the first blow.

Some news that could potentially alter United’s chances of success significantly is the doubts surrounding the fitness of Wayne Rooney. The Englishman is having problems with his knee at this moment in time and missed his sides narrow, and somewhat fortunate 1-0 victory away at Wolves on Saturday. His absence left a huge void up front, one Fergie failed to fill as United were void of ideas in the final third, with chances few and far between without the creative flair and sheer thinking brilliance of their most valuable asset. Should Rooney not be fit in time then United may have to attend a back-to-the-walls meeting at the back as it’s hard to see anyone in that United squad having as much guts and courage to take take the game to Milan. 

The good news though is that Rio Ferdinand is back playing at the heart of the United defence alongside Nemanja Vidic. The two form a sturdy and reliable last line of defence for Manchester United, although should Pato make an expectant start the pair could be troubled once again by pace, while Ferdinand will have had nightmares over the torment he endured at the hands of Ronaldinho at the San Siro, with Rio’s lack of fitness a clear problem that night as the Brazilian waltzed past the England captain. United fans will be hoping he’s sharper for his 90 minutes of action at the weekend, and so will the rest of the defence as they finally form back into a familiar back four of old, one that was so successful in keeping sides out last season.

AC Milan

Outright odds: 66/1 SkyBet

It’s plain for all to see that Milan need plenty of goals at Old Trafford, so the question I hear you all asking is can they actually score enough to make this an exciting contest? – Well, we believe so, you need look no further than their list of forwards to see that this Milan team does have goals in them: Ronaldinho, Alexandre Pato, Marcos Borriello, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Flippo Inzaghi, it’s an endless list of striking talent, with a mixture of ingenuity and craft, youth and experience; Leonardo really does have just about everything at his disposal as far as strikers are concerned, so there can be no excuses. 

The next question you should be asking yourself is do Milan have the strength of mind to defend in a tidy manner for the full 90 minutes, and possibly then some, as a single United goal would probably end this as a contest when you consider AC need to win by a clear two goal margin. There is of course the outside permutation of Milan somehow surpassing the two goal marker and scoring three at Old Trafford, which would be some feat, but still feasible for a side boasting an array of quality up front. In regards to the first question, however, we would have to say no, at least not against a Man Utd side with Wayne Rooney in it. The Rossoneri have yet to keep a clean sheet in the Champions League this season, so it’s probably asking a little too much of them to record their first of the campaign at Old Trafford, although it’s a must really if they want to harbour any real aspirations of reaching the quarter-finals.  

We will say though, Milan are the value bet when you take into consideration that they of the two need to play attacking football in order to bridge the two goal deficit. They should, in theory anyway, be the team asking all the questions at Old Trafford despite this not actually being a home tie for them. Their opponents will be more inclined to sit on the back foot and protect their first-leg lead, so the omen is on Milan to make the breakthrough, one which must come early if possible. Ronaldinho of AC Milan did land the first blow in the San Siro encounter a few weeks ago, but can the Brazilian shine on English soil or will he be one of many world class players which fails to make an impression on the onlooking English public?

Our Verdict: AC Milan to WIN -6.00 PaddyPower

The deciding factor for us was the price of the two sides, and of course the pairs motives. United are in that difficult mindset where they honestly feel they have a more than healthy lead, one which shouldn’t be bridged even by one of Europe’s giant clubs. They will be unsure as to how much time should be spent in the attacking third and their own half, and that’s scary against a Milan side who know what they have to do: Attack! For us, considering Milan are glorious odds and have to win, the away side are the only team worth backing, especially if Wayne Rooney isn’t fit in time. Should Rooney start then perhaps United are worth a punt, but we certainly wouldn’t take a stab at Manchester United in this game without their most influential player.

AC know what they have to do and they are equipped to achieve their target. They basically have an entire front-line wanting to prove a point and that’s a pleasing factor for any manager, regardless of their poor vein of form recently. The return of Pato from injury is also a welcome one, plus the Brazilian will be fresher than most after spending the weekend with his feet up… Lovely!

Match Odds:

Manchester United – 1.67 Bet365

Draw – 3.75 SkyBet

AC Milan – 6.00 PaddyPower

Fiorentina V Bayern Munich

Tuesday, 9^th March – 19:45 GMT

First Leg: Bayern Munich 2-1 Fiorentina

On the same night Arsenal were losing in controversial circumstances, Fiorentina were unfortunately in Germany falling foul to the very same evil fate. An 89^th minute header from Munich veteran, Miroslav Klose, sealed an enthralling first leg win for the Germans, although it was the team from Italy who should have departed from the Allianz Arena with all the plaudits as their performance merited at least a draw, despite being reduced to 10 men during the second period, of which Gobbi will now miss the return leg.

Their were several controversial moments in the first clash in Germany, with the opener being Gobbi’s dismissal with just 15 minutes left to play. However, it got worse when Ovrebro, the famous referee in the Chelsea-Barcelona game at Stamford Bridge last season, missed a blatant dangerous challenge by Miroslav Klose, a tackle which probably should have been met with a red card. This never materalised though, something that would later haunt the Italians, as well as the poor referring on the night, as with 89 minutes on the clock Klose stabbed home Bayern’s winner, although, not only should the German forward had possibly seen red a little earlier, he was clearly standing in an off-side position when the ball was played through, and we mean CLEARLY!

Fiorentina, or Viola as we will call them now they’ll be sporting their famous purple kit back in Florence, shown bags of spirit and endeavour, even if they were short on their luck. However, the past cannot be changed and this is where the hard work begins as manager Cesare Pradelli sets out to master-plan Fiorentina’s progression into the Quarter’s with victory back on home soil. However, the bookies don’t like his chances as Bayern travel over to Florence as the overwhelming favourites to progress, with 1.40 currently the best price you can get on Bayern Munich qualifying for the quarter’s with BetFred. Fiorentina, however, are far bigger at 3.30 with bWin, and look enormous odds to overcome a Bayern side who were hardly intimidating in the first leg. Viola return home to familiar surroundings and their ‘To Qualify’ price quote looks one of immense value in our eyes.

Fiorentina

Outright odds: 80/1 VCbet

Fiorentina’s hopes of defying the odds in qualifying for the quarter-final of the Champions League were given yet another setback after defeat at home to Juventus last Saturday. The Florence based team are going through a sticky patch of form back home, having won just once in Serie A in an almost baron two month spell, but can they put their poor league form aside as they welcome Bayern Munich to Artemio Franchi Stadium in a competition which has provided Viola with a welcome distraction from their poor domestic affairs.

Fiorentina were resilient, if not stubborn, in the opening leg, restricting Bayern to meaningless chances for the best part of 45 minutes before Arjen Rooben opended the scoring. They travelled to Germany with high ambitions of holding out for a draw, a result which would have left Viola in the driving seat had they of earned what they initially set out for. The draw was what they deserved if truth be told, but they had no choice but to settle for a bitter defeat come the end as Miroslav Klose’s 89^th minute header left the travelling Fiorentina support heartbroken after a gruelling affair back in Germany. However, there were plenty of positives to take from their first-leg encounter; the fact Bayern were made to look like pussy cats in comparison to their intimidating global reputation, the rare glimpses of goal Fiorentina restricted Bayern to, and their crucial away goal scored by Kroldrup which leaves this tie still firmly in the balance. 

It’s definitely worth pointing out that Cesare Prandelli, a wanted man at the helm of Fiorentina by many top clubs around Europe, will be without both Adrian Mutu and Gobbi for this second leg clash with Bayern. Gilardino is likely to take up the role of lone striker, while the biggest danger posed by Fiorentina will come in the form of Montenegro wonder-kid, Steven Jovetic. The small forward, whom is an eyesore with his afro styled hair, is just 20 years-of-age but is already shaping up as one of Viola’s more influential figures. Jovetic is so often the architecture in Fiorentina’s forward plays and fans back home in England might remember him fondly for his neatly taken two goal haul at home to Liverpool in the group stages earlier in the campaign. 

Fiorentina’s drastic league form is a huge concern as the morale in camp won’t be be especially high what with Fiorentina floundering in mid-table in Serie A. – a million miles off their fourth place finish of last season. Some of the natives back home have used this very competition as a lousy excuse as to why their team hasn’t been performing back home in the league, and while that could be a valid point, to be the very best you have to manage your battles on all fronts and that’s something Viola simply haven’t managed to do this season. Still, victory, along with qualification for the last-eight of Champions League, would go some way to making it up to their fans for their lacklustre efforts back home in Italy and we feel that’s a strong possibility seeing as they only need one goal.

Bayern Munich

Outright Odds: 14/1 Boylesports

The powerhouses of Germany, Bayern Munich, have the ball in their side of the court after somehow snatching victory from a tight first-leg encounter, one that appeared destined to end in stalemate. Their vital win back home in Germany probably wasn’t a deserved one but it’s a result which sets them up perfectly as they head over to Italy in the mindset that, should they avoid defeat in Florence, they would qualify for the next stage of the competition. However, they ideally need a goal in Italy as were this be a tight affair, as expected, one goal from the home side could be enough to take Fiorentina through on the away goals rule should Bayern not respond with a goal of their own, so despite leading on aggregate Bayern’s job is far from done. 

Louis Van Gaal needs to put some careful thought into which tactic to use ahead of Tuesday nights clash. If Bayern sit back and try to absorb the Fiorentina attacks, all it would take is one goal to send Bayern home empty handed and out of the competition. However, were they to choose the attacking option, with the aim being to quickly grab a crucial away goal, one which would leave Fiorentina needing two goals at least just to take this tie into extra-time, it could potentially leave Bayern’s defence exposed and open to exploitation when Fiorentina roam forward. Van Gaal will haveto go for a balancing act; attacking in an efficent manner, without the need for overcomitting as their main priority will be to defend their one goal advantage of theirs, with scoring an away goal a close second.

Bayern Munich are more than capable of scoring in Florence due to the array of striking talent at the club; Arjen Robben & Franck Ribery are a right handful down the flanks with their pace and skill, while their vision to not only spot the ideal pass but to deploy it with deadly accuracy makes them extremely dangerous and a serious threat on the break, while Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez are proper strikers in that they are more than accomplished with the ball at their feet, but the pair also have this predatory instinct, especially Klose who scored a predators goal in the first leg, that famous off-side goal that never officially was off-side. Moreover, Bayern’s previous visit to Italy was just before the Christmas break in a pivotal, and evidentially qualifying decider, against Juventus in Turin. Bayern knew they had to win that night and did so with aplomb, smashing four past Juventus in a 4-1 victory. They set down a marker that night that they could score any number of goals when asked too, but will they meet the expectations this time around in their second visit to Italy in as many months.

Unlike their last-sixteen opponents, Bayern do have some solid league form under their belts and, crucially, some staggeringly high momentum behind them. While Bayern have only managed two draws in their last two away outings back in the German Bundesliga, the current leaders of the German league have gone a mouthwatering eighteen league games without defeat. It’s a run that stretches way back to September of last year. More importantly, however, eight of those eighteen unbeaten games were away fixtures, a statistic which should breathe confidence into the Munich players. They did, however, succumb to defeat in Bordeaux back in the Group stage, losing 2-1 to the French champions. The defeat in France was the evidence needed that the German giants are beatable, even if they are one of the more formidable teams left in the competition.

Our Verdict: Fiorentina to WIN – 2.90 Bet365

Call us silly, perhaps even foolish, but our gut instinct is saying Fiorentina will be the side progressing at Bayern’s expense, while the only way that will happen is with victory in Florence, so that’s our short and uneventful story on how we came across a Fiorentina punt. We expected so much more from Bayern in the first leg, yet throughout the course of their Champions League campaign they fail to meet the demands set upon them by us and their passionate fans. The Germans were in colossal form when they last visited Italy, beating Juventus 4-1, but that was a classy performance from out of nowhere, with Bayern’s away displays generally being patchy, and well below par. Bayern Munich are far too inconsistent for my liking to be taking chunks out of their short price to qualify, and so, preference is for Viola, Fiorentina, to spring the first mini-shock of the knock-out stage by seeing to Bayern Munich. After all, both Liverpool and Lyon have fallen in Florence this season, so what’s to stop Bayern succumbing to same, ill fate.

Match Odds:

Fiorentina – 2.90 Bet365

Draw – 3.40 PaddyPower

Bayern Munich – 2.50 totesport

Arsenal V FC Porto

Tuesday, 9^th March – 19:45 GMT

First Leg: FC Porto 2-1 Arsenal

The first leg finished in controversial circumstances as FC Porto clinched a vital home win to boost their Quarter-Final claims. However, their winner, scored by Colombian Falcao, was met by stinging criticism by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger because Falcoa was allowed to stroke the ball home into an empty net after the referee acknowledged Porto’s quickly taken free-kick. While the entire Arsenal squad were left feeling aggrieved, they only had themselves to blame after gifting the Portuguese side both of their goals, with Porto’s first coming by virtue of a goalkeeping howler from Lukasz Fabianski, while their second, that of Falcao’s, was made possible after Sol Campbell’s intended back pass for Fabianski in the Arsenal goal was picked up.

The first leg was a catalogue of errors for the Gunners as their mistakes proved costly. However, there was one positive to take from the game and that was Sol Campbell’s 18^th minute header. His first goal for the club since re-joining the Gunners in January ensured Arsenal at least left Porto with a vital away goal, a goal which leaves this tie firmly hanging by a knife edge. However, Arsenal are still favoured by the bookmakers to see off their Portuguese opponents, with Arsenal a general best priced 1.67. Porto, however, whom hold all the aces after their 2-1 victory in Portugal, are perhaps more attractive at 2.25 with VCbet, although do they have it in them to record a big result on English soil.

Arsenal

Outright odds: 14/1 Coral

It was a good weekend for the Gunners as preparations for this second clash with Porto went to plan with a routine victory over Burnley last Saturday. Granted the performance of the Arsenal team wasn’t the best, but the three points they earned from that win kept up the pressure on Chelsea & Man Utd, with Arsenal now just two points off the pace currently set by Manchester United and full of confidence after their fourth league win the spin. Arsene Wenger will be hoping that victory over Burnley will be the platform to a successful Tuesday night, but will the Portuguese giants spoil the party of another English side.

While Arsenal remain the favourites to qualify at the expense of Porto (Arsenal to Qualify, 1.62 SkyBet), this Porto side can be dangerous, especially when they are being completely written off. Manchester United found out the hard way when they when they fell behind to the then champions of Portugal before eventually finishing with an unsatisfactory 2-2 draw. Should the same result occur at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal would be packing their Champions League bags, so it’s imperative the Gunners don not underestimate their Tuesday night opponents. 

Arsene Wenger was dealt a huge blow though, arguably the biggest he could of ever of imagined before such an important encounter, in that Cesc Fabregas is a major doubt after picking up a hamstring injury during Arsenal 3-1 win at home to Burnley on Saturday. Fabregas, whom opened the scoring for Arsenal at the weekend, is the puppet master in the heart of the Arsenal midfield, pulling all the strings of his fellow midfielders and forward team-mates. His deft little touches, his vision on the ball, his quick interchanges with those around him, all of which Arsenal will sorely miss should he not be fit in time for this clash. Were this nightmare to become a reality then Arsene Wenger will be short of some creative spark in the centre-of-midfield, while the danger runs and clinical finishing from the Spaniard are also fine attributes that Arsenal will have to cope without.

The plus point for you Gunners is playing at the Emirates, a stadium where Arsenal have been notoriously strong at this season with only Man Utd & Chelsea beating Arsenal there in all competitions. Even without Fabregas, Arsenal should still find some sort of attacking rhythm. This should especially be the case after watching Arsenal plug on without their talismanic midfielder in the second half of their weekend game with Burnley, with the Gunners creating more than half-a-dozen clear cut chances in the second half alone. Our only reservation is should Arsenal go a good 45 minutes and then some without a goal that would level the tie on aggregate, do they have an individual willing to step up and become a hero, a role Fabregas would duly fill. We aren’t so sure they do so a strong start is crucial if Arsenal want to switch the pressure back onto their Portuguese opponents and restore the parity lost from the first-leg.

FC Porto

Outright odds: 66/1 PaddyPower

Unlike their English opponents, FC Porto’s weekend didn’t exactly go to plan as they could only warm up for this hotly anticipated last-sixteen clash with a draw back in Liga Sagres in Portugal. Porto, whom were a general 1/5 to win on Saturday night, drew Olhanense, a team second from bottom in the Portuguese SuperLiga. That draw was important as it mean Porto haven’t won a competitive fixture since their victory over Arsenal in the first-leg, which begs the question; are Porto consistent enough in their performances to produce a display worthy of taking them through to the quarter-final stage of the competition?

We would have to say no, with this especially being so after taking a look at Porto’s away fortunes back in their own respective domestic league; PLD: 10, W: 4. Not only that but their previous visit to the Emirates Stadium didn’t exactly go to plan, or well for that matter, with Porto being on the receiving end of a 4-0 whitewash when the two teams met in the group stages of last season. However, Arsenal’s goalscorers that day are either unavailable or no longer at the club, and what with Fabregas, Arsenal’s most influential player being missing, perhaps the Gunners are low on ammunition as Porto head back for another bite at the Arsenal cherry.

Porto rode their luck in the first leg but reaped the rewards as a direct result. Their 2-1 first-leg leaves the tie wide open with both sides boasting serious claims for progression. However, the dangerous factor as far as Porto are concerned is the away goal Arsenal scored, so while Porto do hold the one goal ace card over the Gunners, Porto would need a goal of their own to really pile the pressure on Arsenal. An away goal for Porto isn’t out of the question though considering they put two past Manchester United in the very same stage of last seasons competition. They would, however, need a performance similar to that at Old Trafford a year ago, with some quick breakaways and some clinical finishing. Porto were a menace at Old Trafford that night, bombing forward with electric pace and with plenty of support, and should they deploy similar tactics at the Emirates on Tuesday night then perhaps a shock could be on the cards.

Our Verdict: Draw – 4.00 bWin

Porto are one of those teams which you love to draw, but then know you must attain a positive result in the away leg to leave yourself in the driving seat. While Arsenal do have that away goal, the one goal deficit does leave them extremely vulnerable as the omen is on them to ask all the questions and to commit men forward to attack in order to level the tie. That doesn’t sound at all good for us as Porto are one of the masters at breaking out from defence at an alarming rate, aided by plenty of forward support. Moreover, This Arsenal defence has been found wanting when backtracking against the very best in England on more than one occasions in the past month or two, which has got us thinking that perhaps Porto are the team to side with, at least as far as qualifying goes. One goal from them would leave Arsenal needing at least two goals just to take this tie into extra-time and we wouldn’t put it past the Portuguese champions scoring at the Emirates.

Interesting Fact: In nine previous attempts to reverse a first-leg deficit, Arsenal have only been successful on one occasion.

Match Odds:

Arsenal – 1.62 SkyBet

Draw – 4.00 bWin

FC Porto – 6.50 Bet365

UEFA Champions League – Last-Sixteen

Tuesday, 23^rd February, 2010

19:45 GMT – Olympiakos V Bordeaux

19:45 GMT – VFB Stuttgart V Barcelona

Wednesday, 24^th February, 2010

17:30 GMT – CSKA Moscow V Sevilla

19:45 GMT – Inter Milan V Chelsea

Matt’s Selections

Olympiakos V Bordeaux – Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 Boylesports

We don’t think an awful lot will separate the two come the final whistle in a game which could quite easily dwindle into a stalemate. Olympiakos will look to score goals as they need to make home advantage count, but their opponents won’t want to concede very many, if any, and will instead set up in a more conservative manner, with the aim being to keep a clean sheet and possibly nicking a goal on the counter. If Olympiakos do land the first blow then Bordeaux will need to come out of their defensive shell, which is a concern for us if the Greek side do get their goal early on. However, if the French side take the lead then they are more than capable of sitting on a one goal advantage and consolidating. This doesn’t have the makings of a classic, nor does it shape up as an open contest, so a small wager on there being no more than two goals could be worthwhile.

VFB Stuttgart V Barcelona – Over 2.5 Goals @1.80 Gamebookers

These two sides will play on the front foot in Germany and it could provide us with a thrilling encounter at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart. The home side know the importance of getting a result in Germany but ideally know they have to win in order to stand any chance of causing a shock by progressing to the next stage of the competition. Barcelona will go in search of a crucial away goal, one that could perhaps be a killer, so we expect nothing less than some swift attacking play from them. Both these two sides were enjoying themselves in front of goal at the weekend and we’re banking on there being more of the same as we plump for 3 Goals or More.

CSKA Moscow V Sevilla – Sevilla to Score 2 Goals or More @ 2.62 PaddyPower

With the Russian side looking to score as many as possible in order to enhance their chances of bypassing this tough last-sixteen tie, with a trip to Sevilla just around the corner, they could be left exposed at the back if they do commit too many men forward. They have to win, anything but would leave them vulnerable for an early knock-out  stage exit as Sevilla should win comfortably back in Spain, so the pressure is on CSKA to ask questions of the Sevilla defence, one which hasn’t kept an away clean sheet in the competition as of yet, but will they push their luck when trying to do so? Well, we certainly think so as Sevilla are the masters at tearing away from defence and scoring with a quick-fire counter. The break at a considerable pace and have the talent up front to finish off their accelerated breakaways, with the likes of Kanoute, Negredo & Fabiano poised and waiting up front to prod home. Sevilla’s slick counter-attacking style looks destined to expose a ragged CSKA defence in Moscow, providing they warm up beforehand as the conditions will be cold.

Inter Milan V Chelsea – Didier Drogba to Score Anytime @ 3.20 Coral

The Ivorian has been the stand out player for Chelsea this season, scoring goals a plenty whilst scaring the living daylights out of every single defence that has dared to oppose him. Drogba is enjoying arguably his best spell at the club and can’t stop scoring of late and has notched up four goals since returning from Africa, with his two at the weekend sending Chelsea four points clear at the top of the Premiership and boosting his self-belief and confidence even further. He’s a player currently on top of his game, at his peak despite reaching his thirties, and from a punters point of view we’d rather have money on him then not as he seems to score in just about every game he features in for Chelsea this season.

Internazionale V Chelsea

Wednesday, 24^th February – 19:45 GMT (ITV1)

Introduction

The draw for the last sixteen has drawn up another nostalgic clash as Jose Mourinho, a former manager and hero at Chelsea, sets out to topple the current league leaders of the Premiership at the San Siro in what will be the most eagerly anticipated tie in this second set of last sixteen fixtures. While this isn’t exactly a battle between kings, by this time next season it could quite easily be just that as both Inter Milan & Chelsea lead their respective leagues by a healthy margin, meaning, in theory, we have an intriguing tie between what is the best teams in Italy & England respectively.

Jose Mourinho, one of the more animated and charismatic managers currently on the scene, was drafted in at Inter almost immediately after departing Chelsea with the objective being to bring home some European glory for his new employers. However, even the ‘Special One’ hasn’t be able to work his magic at a club which has been doomed in European competitions in recent seasons, with the club having gone nearly half-a-century without a major European accolade (discounting their successess in the UEFA Cup during the 90’s). Chelsea, though, are in the same boat having not won a European trophy ever, but they have a Champions League veteran at the helm in Carlo Ancelotti, whom has won this competition twice as both a player and manager, so will his vast European experience prove the difference in a contest between two clubs starving for European glory?

To Qualify

Internazionale – 2.70 bWin Chelsea – 1.53 Bet365 

Internazionale

Champions League Odds: 14/1 888Sport

The enticement of this tie is solely based upon the match up between Jose Mourinho and is former club, Chelsea. The Portuguese manager has enjoyed success in every area as manager but now has the mission of all missions in somehow trying to guide Inter Milan to an elusive and much craved European title. However, if they are to do so they will need to overcome one of the competitions more fancied clubs by beating the current leaders of the English Premier League, Chelsea.

The club are desperate for some European success and won’t have been impressed with their draw either. Inter would have preferred a far easier draw than the one they received and will be hard-pressed to progress judging by their recent attempts in the knock-out phase of the competition, losing out to English opponents in their previous two first round knock-out attempts when losing to Manchester United last season and Liverpool back in 2008. They’ve also not surpassed the last-sixteen stage of the tournament in their last three seasons so how will they go about changing their fortunes in what is probably their hardest assignment of the lot?

Inter Milan are known for their solid, stable foundation at the back but have always maintained this steely edge in attack. However, they’ve been stuttering badly of late, drawing their last three league games in Serie A, with none of those coming against the so called elite sides in Italy. On Saturday, Inter had to work extremely hard just to earn a point from a fixture they looked destined to lose at Half-Time after going into the break with just nine men. However, the tactical genius of the man at the helm, aided by some good fortune, seen Inter cling onto their unbeaten home run and that will stand them in good stead ahead of an even tougher examination on Wednesday night. However, it remains to be seen just how much playing with nine men took out of Jose Mourinho’s players as it was a gruelling encounter, one which required 100% effort from every player.

Inter’s recent lack of form is a major concern as the one thing you definitely need heading into a Champions League encounter is momentum, and Inter currently don’t have a lot of that right now, nor do they possess a team brimming with confidence it would seem. They were rash, untidy and wasteful on Saturday in a game they were mighty fortunate not to have lost. Clearly this drought of theirs is getting to the players and the frustration within camp is steadily beginning to grow. However, it’s imperative they keep their cool in this contest as any rash dismissal at the San Siro in midweek would almost certainly hand the initiative to Chelsea and more than likely see Inter travel to England with a first leg deficit to overcome.

Chelsea

Champions League Odds: 9/2 SportingBet 

Chelsea kept up their title winning charge with a routine win at Wolves on Saturday, although their performance probably didn’t merit all three points. It was an unconvincing display from Carlo Ancelotti’s men, whom travels back to where he enjoyed his most successful spell as manager, Milan, and he will pit his wits against his former clubs fiercest rivals in Inter Milan. That intense rivalry will still burn brightly inside Ancelotti and he will have a point to prove just as much as his opposite number will, so who will win this intriguing battle of the managers?

While Chelsea weren’t their impressive selves at the weekend, the win was important as it ensured the club didn’t suffer their first back-to-back defeats of the season after losing 2-1 in their previous outing at Everton – A team which franked the form by beating Manchester United 3-1 on Saturday. On the whole, though, Chelsea have been a model of consistency in terms of winning games and have picked up six wins from their last eight league games, not including a couple of FA Cup victories. However, their performances of late have been well below par, especially in defence, an area where Chelsea were very poor on Saturday and were thankful that Petr Cech was back to his best in the Chelsea goal and spared Chelsea’s blushes with some superb point-blank saves. John Terry’s recent off-pitch drama has led to a decline in his performance levels, while the absence of Ashley Cole down the left has left a void which Ancelotti has found hard to fill. 

The good news for Chelsea fans is that Didier Drogba hasn’t lost the scintillating form he was in just before he left for the African Cup of Nations and has got straight back down to business by scoring a large chunk of Chelsea’s recent goals, bagging a brace on Saturday in the 2-0 win at Wolves. The Ivorian is arguably enjoying his best ever spell at the club, his career even, and is looking irresistible at the moment. His understanding of the play is so much better, his confidence on the ball is enabling him to drive at defences while his composure in goalscoring positions has been outstanding and has resulted in plenty of goals for him. Drogba, whom was a personal favourite of Mourinho and a potential signing at one stage, could come back to haunt the former Chelsea boss by scoring a crucial away goal at the San Siro, one that would heavily alter the balance of the tie in Chelsea’s favour.

While Chelsea should have enough in their locker to see of the Italian champs, their problems at the back are disturbing, if not alarming. Careless mistakes are creeping into their play while there is a distinct lack of organisation at the back, which is bewildering considering they have the former England captain in the heart of their defence. A fairly weak Wolves offence could of scored at least a couple on Saturday were it not for Petr Cech, and the sight of this will have Jose Mourinho licking his lips as the likes of Eto, despite having a poor spell in front of goal, and Diego Milito, whom has been on fire for Inter this season, could pounce on any mistakes.

Match Verdict: Draw – 3.20 Bet365

Inter will require far more patience than they’ve been showing in recent outings, especially against a Chelsea side which will pile plenty of men behind the ball when not in possession. Chelsea, however, will look to capitalise on the few opportunities they do create as we aren’t too sure as to how dominant they will want to be at the San Siro. Their midfield has hardly been in inspired form of late, while their defence is looking so exposed that Carlo Ancelotti won’t want to leave any gaps when Chelsea to stride forward. We feel Chelsea will approach this first leg in a ’safety first’ manner, and by that we mean defending in numbers, with discipline in a bid to snatch one on a rare venture forward whilst trying to keep a clean sheet. This could prove a worthy tactic as Inter have shown in recent games alone that they can be easily frustrated and do lose their cool under pressure. 

If we had to pick a side to win then it would be Chelsea but their defence is looking far too vulnerable right now and so we’ve opted for the draw instead as we can’t see Inter winning, despite this shaping up as probably their best chance to beat an English side if Chelsea’s defence isn’t at its best. Chelsea just have that feel about them that they won’t lose on Wednesday, so our money will go directly on the draw, although a Chelsea win could prove a more likelier outcome considering Inter always fail to perform on the big stage in the big games.

Match Odds:

Internazionale – 2.75 VCbet

Draw – 3.20 Bet365

Chelsea – 2.75 PaddyPower

CSKA Moscow V Sevilla

Wednesday, 24^th February – 17:30 GMT

Introduction

Ah, it’s another one of those early Champions League fixtures as a Russian side, something you don’t see too much of in the knock-out stage of the Champions League, hosts a tricky Spanish Sevilla in the last sixteen in what will be a bitter, cold evening in Moscow, with a spot in the Quarter-Finals up fro grabs for the two-legged winner. Both domestic form and European reputation has seen Sevilla slashed in price and made firm favourite to progress over two legs, but will the bookies be proven right in their assessment of the two or will the CSKA prove o be this seasons Dark Horses in the Champions League?

CSKA Moscow will know only a win will do in their quest to make the quarter-finals, but will be hard-pressed to attain a first leg lead against what is the upcoming team in Spain. Moreover, the Spanish side, whom have beaten both Real Madrid & Barcelona this season, are flying-high in the Spanish La Liga and already have twenty-two league games under their belts, as well as several cup outings. CSKA, however, haven’t played a competitive fixture since the end of November due to the Russian league coming to a close, almost three months ago now, and that will be a double-edged sword for the side from Moscow in Russia. Arguably, CSKA Moscow will be the fresher of the two sides, but what they boast in stamina they will lack in match fitness and that makes the Russians a dangerous proposition against what will be a sharper Sevilla side.

To Qualify

CSKA Moscow – 3.00 totesport     Sevilla – 1.40 PaddyPower

CSKA Moscow

Champions League Odds: 200/1 SportingBet

The Russians, whom haven’t played a competitive fixture in nearly three months, will get their first real piece of competitive action when they take on Sevilla at the Luzhniki stadium in the Russian capital of Moscow. It’s a venue where CSKA secured two of their three group wins after reigning supreme in their home encounters with Wolfsburg and Beskitas, so will they land a similar blow to their Spanish visitors and make home advantage pay in this pivotal first leg. 

We say pivotal as defeat would almost spell the end for CSKA in this years Champions League as we don’t see them getting anywhere near Sevilla in the return leg in Spain two weeks later. With this in mind, CSKA know they have to get a result at home, preferably in the form of a win as a draw would be far from ideal, especially a scoring one. It’s expected to be a bitter, cold evening in Moscow and so the conditions should very well favour the home side rather than their sun-blessed Spanish opponents, although this is probably the only factor favouring the Moscow side in what does look a one-sided affair on paper.

CSKA Moscow coach, Juande Ramos, enjoyed plenty of success at Sevilla, with a final success in the UEFA Cup the highlight in his tenure at the Spanish club and he will duly receive a warm welcome in the return leg. However, sentiments go out the window for now as he desperately needs to plot a stroke of genius if his CSKA side are to overcome the might of Sevilla. The advantage, though, is that Ramos will know plenty about his former club; from Sevilla’s usual use of tactics to each players abilities and weaknesses. However, will all this useful information be enough to bridge the apparent gulf in class between the two sides?

CSKA Moscow, while they will have home advantage, haven’t kept a clean sheet at the Luzhniki stadium in this seasons competition to date, conceding one goal in all three of their group fixtures in Russia. The big positive is that they don’t concede an awful lot but, by the same token, they’ve still struggled to keep even some of this seasons average European teams at bay for the full 90 minutes, with both Wolfsburg & Beskitas scoring in Moscow. This is a huge concern ahead of their first leg tie with a Sevilla side notorious for the striking prowess in the final third of the pitch.

Sevilla

Champions League Odds: 28/1 bWin

Sevilla are our outside punt for this seasons Champions League crown as they looked superb at times during the group stages, with their only defeat thus far coming in Romania when losing 1-0 to Unirea Urziceni at a time when Sevilla were already through to the knock-out stages. They play attractive football, with plenty of attacking endeavour, and they are a team with bags of potential and do possess the ability in numbers to spring a surprise on their day, although, in reality this two-legged tie with CSKA should be a walk in the park compared to what’s to come later on. Providing they qualify that is. 

With the exception of the two ‘Glamour’ teams in Spain, Sevilla are arguably the best of the rest and have shown this on plenty of occasions this season, even managing victories over Real Madrid Barcelona back in Spain. However, they are now way near as consistent as the top two sides in Spain, and despite possessing this dangerous aurora about them, their inconsistent nature does make them a precarious bet, although we still feel they could be a decent little bet to make some real in-roads providing they turn up the heat on the big boys when asked to.

With regards to this first leg encounter in Moscow, Sevilla could struggle to adapt to the cold Russian surroundings as they won’t be familiar with the typically awkward conditions around Russia. That, with perhaps their inconsistent tendency, is the only factor that just might affect their chances of bypassing this Moscow test. They have the inventory to dispatch of CSKA, with the likes of Jesus Navas and Diego Capal down the wings, two of the brighter talents in the Sevilla set up, while they have two experienced professional up front in Luis Fabiano & Frederic Kanoute. The former will pose the biggest threat for Sevilla when going forward as his pace and witty ball skills makes him a difficult player to mark and defend against. They also have a player by the name of Negredo, whom has scored seven league goals in La Liga, and he too will pose yet more danger for the Russian side.

Sevilla have the talent in depth to handle this CSKA Moscow test but the conditions is a concern and perhaps a leveller. Also, Sevilla do have this consistent nature about them where every now again they just don’t turn up and perform the theur usually high standard. On their day they can play fast, free-flowing football, breaking from defence in a considerable rate of knots. The type of football which is extremely difficult to defend against. Then there’s the sloppy Seville which concede silly yet costly goals. On the whole, in the Champions League anyway, they have been very consistent and have been one of the more entertaining sides to watch, scoring eleven goals in six games. Interestingly, though, seven of those did come away from Spain so perhaps their quick counter-attacking style could pave the way for a big first leg lead.

Match verdict: Sevilla to WIN – 2.50 Bet365

In reality, CSKA must take a lead over to Spain with them in order to stand any chance of progressing. We have no doubt they will show plenty of endeavour and effort but whether that will equate into goals in either leg is another question. However, with CSKA looking to attack at every opportunity, probably with numbers, this game looks ideally set up for a big Sevilla victory as their quick breakaways could be too much for CSKA to handle. Sevilla break out from defence at an alarming rate and they will cause CSKA all sorts of problems at the back, that’s if the CSKA defenders can get back in time. CSKA desperately need a first leg win, but our vote of confidence goes the way of the away side as Sevilla look to cement their claims of a quarter-final place with victory in Russia.

SoccerBetting Tip: Sevilla to score 2 or more goals – 2.62 PaddyPower

Seville really do pack-a-punch when on the front foot and it’s hard to see their illustrious strike force not scoring at least once in Moscow. We, though, fancy them to get on the score sheet a couple of times as their counter-attacking style could unlock a Moscow defence which not be as organised due to CSKA’s intent to attack in order to score a few goals whilst home advantage is still on their side. If Sevilla are quick and slick on the break and remain composed in the pivotal moments then we can easily envisage them bagging a few in Moscow. Negredo, Kanoute & Fabiano could score any numbers of goals when in top form.

Match Odds:

CSKA Moscow – 2.95 Expekt

Draw – 3.25 Boylesports

Sevilla – 2.50 Bet365 

VFB Stuttgart V Barcelona

Tuesday, 23^rd February – 19:45 GMT

Introduction

Many were saying that the favourites for the competition outright, and the reigning European champions, Barcelona, were given a gift of a tie when drawing German side, VFB Stuttgart, in the last sixteen stage of the prestigious tournament. One brief look at the respective league tables would suggest that’s probably the case but the German side have established a decent run of form since the Champions League went on a two month break and Stuttgart fans will be more optimistic of their teams chances than you think due to their recent positive surge in results, so perhaps this isn’t as straightforward as it looks on paper.

If the result in this first leg was to be based around recent results, we should be in for one corker of a game. Stuttgart gave their hopes of pulling a big shock on Tuesday night, what would be the surprise of the round, a big boost when smashing five past FC Koln on Saturday, winning 5-1 away from home; while Barcelona were even more convincing than their German adversary’s when comfortably seeing to Racing Santander, winning 4-0 at the Nou Camp. Both won by a clear four goal margin, but will one of these two sides put a healthy gap between the other on Tuesday, heading into the penultimate second leg at the Nou Camp, in Spain, a fortnight later?

To Qualify

VFB Stuttgart – 8.00 bWin Barcelona – 1.11 totesport

VFB Stuttgart

Champions League Odds: 3/1 PaddyPower

There is no getting away from the fact that Stuttgart will enter the first of two legs in this last-sixteen encounter as the underdogs but their superb run of form back home may just have the Barcelona tacticians standing on edge. Swiss coach, Christian Gross, has now seen his Stuttgart side notch up an endless amount of wins in recent weeks, with his ever improving squad winning six of it’s last seven competitive games and have lost just once since the end of November. It’s close to perfect form heading into the clubs biggest game for years but is it enough to bridge the huge gulf in class between the two? 

Stuttgart were actually competing in the Group stages of the Champions League whilst staring relegation straight in the face back home in the German Bundesliga after a terrible start to the campaign; winning just two of their first sixteen league fixtures. However, a vital win just before the lengthy Christmas break enabled the club to rethink their strategy and their plans for the new year have worked out perfectly. They are up their with title chasing Bayern Munich in terms of recent form and they’ve finally gotten the hang of scoring goals. If they can maintain this type of form then Stuttgart will continue to rise up the Bundesliga table, but it’s a whole different ball game competing against mediocre sides in the German league than the Spanish giants of Barcelona.

While their form is tremendous right now, and this should bring about some renewed optimism at the club, Stuttgart still face an uphill challenge getting something out of the first leg, despite boasting home advantage. Their team on paper just doesn’t match up to that of Barcelona’s, which is filled to the brim with talent and superstars. Instead, Gross will be heavily relying on certain individuals for inspirational displays, none more so than veteran goalkeeper Jens Lehmann, who was in inspired form at the weekend. The former Arsenal & German No.1 will come under siege in the Stuttgart goal on Tuesday night and will be hoping a defence which hasn’t kept a clean sheet in it’s last four league games does him a huge favour by restricting the flow of Barcelona attacks as much as possible.

Christian Gross has got what was a poor Stuttgart side playing in a more vigorous, confident manner, with plenty of attacking swagger and intent about them now. They were lethal on Saturday, breaking from defence to attack at an alarming rate and punishing a shoddy FC Koln severely with five goals. With their more glamorous opponents looking to dictate this game from the very start, Stuttgart may well have to deploy similar tactics on Tuesday night in a bid to snatch a few goals in Germany. The likes of Pogrebnyak, Alexandar Hlber, whom is on loan from Barcelona until the end of the season and will have a point to prove, and Cacau, a Brazilian striker with plenty of confidence after his four goal haul at the weekend, while need to be in tip-top shape and on top of their game if they are to cause Barcelona problems at the back.

Barcelona

Champions League Odds: 250/1 SportingBet

The reigning European Champions will go about their first assignment in the knock-out stage of the tournament in a professional, tidy manner when they aim to solidify their claims for a quarter-final place by beating Stuttgart in Germany on Tuesday night. It’s a game they are expected to win but it’s also a two-legged tie they are heavily fancied to sail through, so will this expectant pressure get to their heads or will they remain cool under the spotlight of millions of neutral onlookers? The bookies seem think so, but their German opponents will think otherwise and it’s down to the Catalan giants to put VFB Stuttgart firmly in their place with an authoritative performance on Tuesday night at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Barcelona, whom lost their first game of the season in La Liga a fortnight ago, bounced straight back with a resounding victory at home to Racing Santander on Saturday with a 4-0 victory. Many of their the big names were out on that Nou Camp pitch on Saturday; Lionel Messi, Iniesta, Thierry Henry, the latter two both bagging a goal-a-piece, but they were missing two key players in Xavi Herandez & Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whilst Seydou Keita also didn’t feature for Pepe Guardiola’s side. Both Xavi & Keita have already been ruled out for this first leg encounter in Stuttgart, while we’re unsure as to why Ibrahimovic didn’t feature at all in Saturday’s emphatic win over Racing Club. The absence of Keita won’t be as pivotal as the void Xavi will leave as the latter is the key chance creator in the heart of a Barcelona midfield jam-packed with creative quality. However, the task of carving open a normally vulnerable Stuttgart defence appears to be solely down to Iniesta now, whom has the ability to open up any defence on his day with his sharp vision and pinpoint through balls. 

To add to Guardiola’s injury woes; both Eric Abidal & Dani Alves are ruled out of the first leg leaving Barcelona with a make-shift back four, one which did come unstuck against in their last away encounter at Athletico Madrid – A team which playing in a similar attacking vein as Stuttgart, with high-tempo breaks their main method of attack. We think it’s a fair assessment to say that Barcelona could concede at least a goal in Stuttgart because their defence isn’t at its strongest right now. However, baring all this in mind; the importance of controlling the game via the midfield is huge for Barca, and providing they can dictate the majority of the play, an exposed Barcelona defence might not come under as much scrutiny as predicted.

From Barcelona’s perspective; they will go out and try to get as many goals as possible in order to demoralise their opponents as they head back to Spain for the deciding second leg at the Nou Camp in a fortnights time. With their defence not at its sharpest right now, it’s doubly important that Barca’s glittering strike force of Messi, Henry and possibly Ibrahimovic, land the first blow in order to knock the stuffing out of their German opponents. If Barcelona do go behind, which is a realistic scenario considering their defensive predicament, then this first leg tie could quickly turn into a Gun-ho encounter, although this could actually play into their hands as the more goals they score in Germany, the higher their success rate of progressing due to away goals.

Barcelona still too strong…

A little off-topic from all the injury talk but we mustn’t disregard the fact that Barcelona do come into this Stuttgart meeting with an emphatic 4-0 win behind them and full of confidence knowing that only two teams have beaten them in all competitions this season, with those being two former Champions League sides in Rubin Kazan & Athletico Madrid. They’ve won the vast majority of their games back home in Spain, with a staggering eighteen wins from twenty-three league games, whilst they remain unbeaten away from home in the Champions League in nine games and will feel safe in the knowledge that they haven’t suffered defeat on German soil in their last six visits.

Match Verdict: Barcelona to WIN – 1.73 Boylesports

We fancy the Catalan giants to come through their first leg in Germany with a win, but it won’t be a clean ride. We think this tie definitely has goals in it, what with both sides looking to score pivotal first legs goals in order to enhance their chances of progression. Barcelona have the quality up top to give any defence the run around so we expect them to score a good few in Stuttgart, while the Germans desperately need a couple of goals in order to stand them in good stead for an almost impossible return leg in Spain. 

As far as winning this first leg goes; both sides actually have solid claims for a vital first leg win. Barcelona are the team we’ve opted for simply because they have the quality all over the park to control this game for large periods and they should ask most of the questions. However, Barcelona’s defence is so exposed and Stuttgart could be the ideal team to exploit this Barcelona flaw with their quick-fire breakaways. The Germans attack at pace and in large numbers and they could over run their Spanish opponents if they get their tactics spot on and keep their nerve in the vital moments.

You would have to fancy Barcelona’s chances of picking up the win in Germany, but Stuttgart are no forlorn hope and could spring a surprise on Tuesday night, although it goes without saying that they would need a huge performance from every single player.

SoccerBetting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals – 1.83 Coral

Both teams enter this pivotal first leg in a rich vein of goalscoring form, with Stuttgart scoring five at the weekend and Barcelona registering four. The pair have been scoring goals-a-plenty of late but it’s actually the way these two will set up which makes us think a glut of goals could be on the cards. Stuttgart will be a lively match up for Barcelona, especially when the German side break out from defence and they will cause an injury ravaged Barca defence plenty of problems and provide them with a lot of intriguing questions. While we all know the damage Barcelona can cause when going forward. This game does have the makings to be a thrilling affair and we would genuinely be surprised if this turned out to be a dull 0-0 encounter.

Match Odds:

VFB Stuttgart – 5.50 PaddyPower

Draw – 3.90 bWin

Barcelona – 1.73 Boylesports

Olympiakos V Bordeaux

Tuesday, 23^rd February – 19:45 GMT

Introduction

Arguably thee unattractive tie in the last sixteen draw sees Greece versus France as Olympiakos go in search of a vital first leg win in their native homeland against the reigning French Champions, Bordeaux. It is the French side who go into the first leg as the favourites to progress after an exemplary display during group qualification, valiantly fending off the challenge from Juventus & Bordeuax for top spot, stamping their signal of intent on this tournament in the process by finishing a competitive Group A in first place – Rather comfortably we must add – not losing a single game. Their opponents, however, scraped through to the knock-out stage by the skin of their teeth after a second place finish in a rather poor looking Group H, just behind English side Arsenal. They eventually finished five points clear of third placed Standard Liege but lost twice during the Group part of the tournament and are deservedly the underdogs.

This first leg is pinnacle, if not as exciting at first glance, as Olympiakos know fully well they must take some sort of first leg advantage over to France in order to stand any realistic chance of progressing into the quarters. Greece has been a notoriously tough place to visit in the footballing world as Greek sides tend not to give an awful lot away, especially cheap goals. That’s an important feature with Greek teams and it’s something Olympiakos need to master quickly in the first leg as they can ill-afford to let Bordeaux build up ahead of steam with a potentially killer away goal. Bordeaux will feel picking up an away goal will leave them in an ideal position to qualify for the last eight – the Quarter-Final’s – but we aren’t overly confident in them going all out for a crucial away goal, with perhaps a 0-0 suiting them down to the ground heading back to France for the return leg.

To Qualify

Olympiakos – 3.20 bWin Bordeaux – 1.40 SkyBet

Olympiakos

Champions League Odds: 200/1 bWin

The Greek champions will be hoping to emulate their best ever run in the Champions League when they entertain Bordeaux in the first leg in Greece. Were Olympiakos to overcome this French challenge then they would match their Quarter-Final effort of 1998/1999 when they eventually were knocked out by Italian side Juventus. What stands in front of them make look an easier assignment than most they could of got but Bordeaux posted the best record in the group stages, dropping just two points, so this is far from plain sailing for the Greeks and they will actually be the less fancied team to progress despite boasting far more Champions League experience than their last-sixteen opponents.

Olympiakos’ home form played a significant part in their qualification from a fairly weak looking Group H, one which consisted of Arsenal, Standard Liege & AZ Alkmaar, of which the latter two were Champions League novices. The Greek side maintained a 100% home record with three successive victories, conceding just the one goal in the process. However, while they did beat Arsenal in their very last group fixture, in Greece, it did come at a time when Arsenal had already qualified and so perhaps that victory is slightly misleading. It must also be taken into consideration that all three of their wins at the Karaiskakis Stadium were by a narrow one goal margin, two being 1-0.

Olympiakos’ result in Greece just about sums up how dull games in Greece can be especially in the Champions League as Greek teams don’t exactly go about their task with an ‘all guns blazing’ attitude but more in a conservative manner, which does lead us to believe that this first encounter between the two could be a dull, low scoring affair. Their style of play is very slow, with slow, patient build up’s and attacks built from the defence upwards. It’s not very attractive, but it’s proved very effective in the competition thus far – the proof is literally in the pudding.

While Olympiakos boast an immaculate record in Greece in the Champions League, they have come unstuck on a couple of occasions against their fellow Greek rivals, losing twice in eleven home fixtures back in domestic action against what can only be assumed is far inferior opponents to what they’ll be facing on Tuesday night. They have also lost two of their last four home games back in Greece which doesn’t exactly fill us, nor should it do you, with any great confidence. Then again they were sublime in their last appearance in front of their home fans, smashing a rather poor Levadiakos 5-1.

Bordeaux

Champions League Odds: 28/1 SkyBet 

The French champions, whom were one of just two teams to still remain unbeaten in the competition thus far, were handed possibly the easiest last-sixteen tie of the lot when Olympiakos were their opponents in a draw Bordeaux will have been chuffed to bits with. Despite winning the French Ligue 1 crown last season, Bordeaux weren’t one of the more fancied sides to win the Champions League at the start of the campaign, but, after an almost immaculate Group A display, many are starting to take notice of the biggest team currently in France and they could yet be this seasons dark horses.

Bordeaux not only set a blistering pace in Group A, what was a very competitive Group A it must be said, they are also leading the way back in France and currently hold a three point cushion over second placed Montpellier. This competitive Group A of theirs consisted of some of Europe’s elite teams, with Juventus, Bayern Munich & Maccabi Haifa making up the group of death. However, Bordeaux brushed aside the teams with a far greater worldwide reputation than them by nailing down first position with authority, finishing a massive six points above Bayern Munich who finished second. If that isn’t sublime form then we don’t know what is. 

A large part of their success this season, and that of the last, is down to their lethal striking force of Wendel, Chamakh, Gourcuff & Gouffran, with perhaps neither being household names back in England. All four, however, have been chipping in with plenty of goals this season, although only Chamakh of the name just mentioned has scored two goals in this seasons competition, which just goes to show that Bordeaux work as a team as they’ve had no less than seven separate goalscorers during their group games. However, it is their ability to carve open defences and create plenty of decent chances that sets them apart from all other French sides currently on the scene as the rest tend to play in a more reserved manner. Bordeaux, though, are always looking to score goals and have the fire-power up front to back this statement up.

While Bordeaux do like to keep to their attacking ways, they do score most of their goals back in France, and so, France, in front of what will be a capacity crowd at the Stade Chaban Delmas stadium, should be the setting where Bordeaux play their more adventurous football over the two legs and they might instead opt for a more tidy approach in Greece, looking to utilise this extremely well organised defence, one which kept two clean sheets during their three away group games, in order to perhaps knick a goal or two on the counter. They will know of Olympiakos’ strong home record in the competition and won’t want to play into their opponents hands and by putting men behind the ball they will frustrate their last-sixteen opponents who know they desperately at least a one goal lead to take over to France with them.

Match Verdict: Bordeaux to WIN – 2.63 Bet365

This should be a very close encounter between two teams who won’t want to show their cards too early, especially the travellers. Olympiakos will need to score at some point in order to lure Bordeaux away from their solid, stubborn shell-like play and that could be a lot harder than they think as their French opponents have only conceded one away goal thus far. We don’t think Olympiakos will havetoo  much success in breaking down this stubborn Bordeaux resistance and we instead have more faith in Bordeaux’s ability to punish the Greek side on the break, with the the wit & guile of Chamakh especially a threat, while the pace of Wendel will be dangerous for the Olympiakos defence. We feel this first leg tie is actually set up nicely for Bordeaux to snatch a first leg advantage and an away goal in Greece would almost certainly make them a safe bet to progress further.

Match odds:

Olympiakos – 2.88 Boylesports

Draw – 3.25 Coral

Bordeaux – 2.63 Bet365