Burnley V Birmingham City – Saturday 3rd October

Burnley V Birmingham City

Kick-off: Saturday 3^rd October – 15:00 GMT

Venue: Turf Moor

English Premiership 2009/2010

Burnley

League Position: 11th

Recent Form: WLLWL

Burnley and Owen Coyle return to a happy hunting ground this weekend as they prepare to host newly promoted Birmingham City at Turf Moor. The Burnley fans have been sensational in Burnley’s home games, driving their team towards three successive wins at home. Of course, a lot of the credit has to go down to the players but the fans have made Turf Moor an early fortress, with the atmosphere at Turf Moor rocking this season. However, once their team suffers a few home defeats, will the novelty affect start to wear off, and will Burnley’s superb home form rapidly start declining?

It happens with most sides that have never previously braced the Premiership that their fans come out in their thousands to support their team in their home games and, in the process, the club easily sells their ticket allocation in their first few games. However, a few defeats and the mood of the fans turns sour and, although Burnley have been sensational at home thus far, we can’t help but think that a few defeats between now and Christmas could see Turf Moor turn, from a happy hunting ground for Burnley, into a generous venue for other teams to visit.

For the time being at least, Burnley are thriving on the tremendous support of their home fans, winning all three home fixtures thus far. Victories over Manchester United, Everton & Sunderland has given them a 100% home record and this fixture with Birmingham does look the easiest of the lot. Burnley have certainly been more confident at home, playing with more attacking intent and vigour while at Turf Moor. Burnley have yet to score on their travels but equally they have yet to fail to score at home, scoring five goals in three home games. That just about says it all about the home wave Burnley are currently riding high on but, after receiving a jolly good 5-0 spanking away at Spurs over the weekend, will Owen Coyle lift Burnley off the deck in time for the arrival of Birmingham City.

Birmingham City

League Position: 14th

Recent Form: DLLWL

A difficult weekend for Birmingham after they endured their fourth defeat in seven games, losing 2-1 at home to Bolton. Alex McLeish was very confident of his team picking up at least a point last weekend but, because they failed to register any points in that game, he, as well as the Birmingham players, will be eager to make an instant amends away at Burnley this Saturday.

Birmingham have been pretty tidy in defence this season, conceding just six goals in seven games. However, that makes their home defeat against Bolton even more disheartening as their defence certainly got complacent, gifting Bolton easy chances to score. However, our biggest concern with this Birmingham team, a side who can get the ball down and play decent football at times, is their reluctance to attack, and in numbers. Alex McLeish has a tendency to go with just the one striker up front, mainly in the form of Ecuadorian; Christian Benitez, but, although the lad does have bags of pace and is a tricky customer, he needs the support of another front man and, as soon as Kevin Philips joined him in attack, Birmingham prospered. Hopefully, Alex will have learnt an early lesson and swallow his one up front pride and go with an old fashioned 4-4-2 formation away at Bolton.

We will stick our neck on the line and predict that Alex McLeish will go with one up front once again here. The fact that this is a tricky away game means that Alex will squeeze five players into midfield in order to squash and suffocate the Burnley attacks. However, this is a fixture which is certainly winnable but only if Alex McLeish takes the gamble of playing with two up front. Without the extra striker, Birmingham will struggle to create chances and, more importantly, score the goals needed to actually win a game of football.

Match Verdict: Draw – 40/17 Expekt

Birmingham will have their work cut out but we fancy them to thwart Burnley’s immaculate home record this Saturday in a low scoring draw. Birmingham have been pretty solid at the back this season, conceding just three away goals this season, those coming against Man Utd, the league leaders, and Tottenham Hotspur, a team that put five past Burnley last weekend. Burnley, on the other, will be nursing their wounds after being mauled by Tottenham at White Hart Lane last weekend. It could take them a game or two to find their feet again and we fancy Birmingham to capitalise on a wounded Burnley. We were even tempted to select an away win but the draw looks the safest approach to this game.

Match Odds:

Burnley – 23/17 Expekt

Birmingham City – 23/10 Boylesports

Draw – 40/17 Expekt

SoccerBetting Tip: Birmingham City Double Chance (Away Win or Draw) – 4/7 PaddyPower