Brighton V Newcastle – Saturday, 28 January 2012 (LIVE on ESPN)

Brighton & Hove Albion V Newcastle United

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 28 January 2012 – 17:15 GMT

Venue: Falmer Stadium

FA Cup, Fourth Round

Preview

Having acquired enough points to be sure of Premier League survival, Newcastle can afford to expend more time and energy on this season’s FA Cup than most. As a result the Magpies, who are a best-priced 20/1 with Ladbrokes, could be each-way value to claim their seventh FA Cup. That said, it has been 13 years since their last appearance in a final, while you must go way back to 1955 for the last year they actually won it.

It is crazy to think that Newcastle United are one of the most successful clubs in FA Cup history, despite going over half-a-century without winning the damn thing. Their tally of six is bettered only by five clubs, most of which are obvious. So what of their chances this season? Considering the draw has been kind to them so far, and with relegation from the top flight now an unlikely scenario, I would have to say decent – although I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Newcastle have proven on numerous occasions already this season that they can be a match for absolutely anyone on any given day – but also that they’re squad isn’t strong enough to cope without some of its bigger names.

It was no coincidence that their resounding 5-2 loss to Fulham last week in the league came at a time when defensive stalwart Steven Taylor is out injured, and with Chieck Tiote and Demba Ba away on international duty. All three are unavailable to face Brighton this weekend, which is worrying seeing as Brighton away is no gimme.

Without defeat in their last five league and cup matches – winning four, Brighton provide a stern obstacle for high-flying Newcastle, who sit 6TH in the Barclay’s Premier League. The Seasiders, meanwhile, occupy 10TH in the Championship, but they are going great guns right now and will be buoyed by their late win at Peterborough last time out. Moreover, Gus Poyet’s men will know roughly what is required in order to progress into the fifth round having seen to Newcastle’s fierce north-east rivals Sunderland earlier in the season in the League Cup.

So then, a potentially tricky outing for the Premier League outfit. Food for thought perhaps is that Newcastle have shipped eight goals in their last two away matches – albeit against top flight opposition, whereas Brighton boast one of the stronger home defensive records in the Championship with less than a goal conceded per game at the AMEX Stadium, where they’ve shipped a miserly three in their last eight Championship fixtures.

Some clinical finishing and Brighton could spring a surprise here at handsome odds of 3/1, although Alan Pardew will take enough quality with him to suggest Newcastle could comply at around even-money. Personally, this has the look of a draw.

Match Pointers

- First competitive meeting between the two sides for 20-years, since a 1-0 league win for Brighton at St James’ Park back in March of 1992.

- Brighton are unbeaten in their last five league and cup games, winning four including back-to-back home wins over Bristol City (2-0) and Southampton (3-0).

- Gus Poyet’s side have won five and lost only one of their previous seven matches on home soil, keeping four clean sheets and conceding just three times.

- Newcastle’s three-game winning run came to an abrupt end with a 5-2 Premier League loss to Fulham last time out – their second away defeat on the spin having lost 3-1 to Liverpool in their previous away match.

- Newcastle have now won just one of their last six away from home, losing four times and conceding 16 in total.

Betting

It was to be expected that Newcastle would struggle in the absence of African duo Tiote and Ba, who really do make such a difference when they’re in the side. One scores goals while the other denies the opponent from doing the same. However, for the first half of last week’s 5-2 defeat away to Fulham, Newcastle were the superior side in every aspect. While they did record a win over QPR the time before, and that was without the aforementioned duo.

For all their resilience and organised defending, Brighton aren’t exactly prolific. Newcastle don’t normally concede goals in batches of five either. So we could see a contest where defences come out on top, which doesn’t bode well seeing as this clash is to be shown live on ESPN. The stalemate oozes appeal for me, as do the odds on a goalless affair.

Prediction: Draw @ 5/2 SkyBet

Value Bet: 0-0 Draw (Correct Score) @ 9/1 BetVictor

Match Odds

Brighton – 3/1 PaddyPower

Draw – 5/2 SkyBet

Newcastle – 1/1 Ladbrokes