Bolton V Liverpool – Saturday, 21 January 2012 (LIVE on ESPN)

Bolton V Liverpool

Date & Kick-Off: Saturday, 21 January 2012 – 17:30 GMT

Venue: The Reebok

Preview

Toothless Liverpool go to Bolton on Saturday knowing anything less than three points against the team who reside second from bottom in the Barclay’s Premier League would put another huge dent in their bid for European football next season.

Last week’s frustrating goalless draw at home to Stoke was the seventh occasion this season whereby the Reds had failed to locate the back of the opposing net, while it also left them five points adrift of Chelsea in fourth who would move eight points clear of Kenny Dalglish’s men with victory at Carrow Road over Norwich in the first of this weekend’s top flight encounters.

Whereas Liverpool are in the mix fighting for a Champions League berth, Bolton find themselves down at the other end battling to retain their Premier League status. A resounding 3-0 loss away to Manchester United seven days ago was their 15th of the campaign – having lost more games than anyone else – and left them languishing in the relegation zone, a point off safety in 19th.

Their horrific goal difference (-21) means only a win this weekend will suffice for Bolton if they’re to make a rare appearance outside of the bottom-three. It’s been over six years since the Trotters last beat Liverpool in the league, losing each of their previous eleven Premier League meetings with the Anfield outfit, while at home Owen Coyle’s side have registered a measly four points from the thirty that went on offer. That equates to one win in ten home games (W1 D1 L8).

Bad Omens

Not a lot points to a home win. Bolton are a huge price with BetVictor, who goes 11/2 on success for the hosts. Just one league win at The Reebok all season is just one of several reasons why their odds of victory are so handsome, with the Trotters unfortunately posting the worst home figures in the top flight with only four points taken from a possible thirty. They’ve also scored just eleven times at home, but yet contrived to concede a league-high 24.

Chelsea and Manchester United both notched five on visits to Bolton earlier in the term. You wouldn’t bank on Liverpool doing the same, mind. Even those lowly Trotters have plundered more goals than Kenny Dalglish’s expensively-assembled side, which should surmise perfectly the latest and current crisis on Anfield that is scoring. Defensively they’re arguably the most resolute around, with only leaders Man City conceding fewer, but only goals can win you games and goals are what Liverpool have found mighty hard to come by this season.

Fortunately for Liverpool, they’re up against the leakiest team around in Bolton, whose figures of 46 conceded in 21 top flight games simply cannot be bettered – or worsened, whichever way you prefer to look at it. Will that make a blind bit of difference though? After all, the Reds have fired blanks in three of their last four away Premier League games. Moreover, star man Luis Suarez remains suspended, while the only recognised and available striker left at the club can’t even make the team-sheet in his absence.

Match Pointers

- Liverpool are on a ten-match winning streak versus Bolton in the Premier League, winning on each of their previous four visits to The Reebok.

- Bolton’s last Premier League victory over the Reds was in September 2007, when goals from Ivan Campo and the late Gary Speed earned the Trotters a 2-0 home success.

- Jordan Henderson scored his first goal for Liverpool at Anfield in their 3-1 win over Bolton back in August., the side’s first league meeting of the season.

- Bolton, who sit second from bottom, have only won once at The Reebok in the Premier League this season (W1 D1 L8), with their 5-0 victory over Stoke on 6 November being their last win on home soil.

- Liverpool (W9 D8 L4) reside in 7TH but are now five points adrift of the Champions League places after winning only one of their last five Premier League matches.

- Despite being twelve positions worse off than Liverpool, lowly Bolton (25) have netted more times than the Reds (24), although the Trotters do have the worst defence in the top flight (46) whereas Liverpool boast the second strongest defensive figures with only 18 conceded in 21 games.

- Liverpool have won just one of their last four Premier League away games but have recorded more wins on their travels (5) than at home (4).

Betting

Prediction: Liverpool to WIN @ 4/6 with Ladbrokes

Although they have struggled on the road in recent weeks, Liverpool have preferred playing away from home because teams tend not to park the bus. Bolton certainly won’t do that – they can’t, that’s why. The Trotters simply do not do defending; 46 conceded is a league-high, which must surely benefit a Liverpool team who create chances with ease but make heavier weather at converting them than any other side in the Premier League – the Reds have a conversion rate of 9%, which is also a league-high.

In spite of their scoring difficulties, I can’t back against Liverpool. Bolton are dire at the best of times defensively but without their rock, with Gary Cahill now officially a Chelsea player, it is impossible not to fear the worse for a team who leak goals left, right and centre. The visitors should create eve more goalscoring opportunities than usual, which can only aid their chances against a Bolton side who have lost eight of ten at The Reebok in the league.

Value Bet: Andy Carroll to Score @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes

He failed to even make the starting line-up for last week’s goalless draw with Stoke at Anfield, but Andy Carroll should now be a certain starter after Dirk Kuyt’s lacklustre display up front. We’re rapidly approaching three months since the powerful forward last found the back of the net, but he won’t have many better opportunities to end his duct and better his currently dismal record with the Reds than against the most porous defence in the Premier League.

Match Odds

Bolton – 11/2 BetVictor

Draw – 14/5 bWin

Liverpool – 4/6 Ladbrokes