Birmingham City V Wolverhampton Wanderers

Sunday, 7^th February – 13:30 GMT

Birmingham City

League Position: 8th

Recent Form: DWDLD

Finally… After fifteen games, twelve of which were Premiership fixtures, Birmingham fell to defeat as Chelsea ended the clubs most impressive run in it’s history by beating Birmingham 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, just over a week ago in what was a comfortable evening for the London outfit. However, that defeat was so nearly followed up with another when they went mere minutes away from falling to their second defeat in quick succession at home to Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, eventually drawing 1-1 via an injury time equaliser. The defeat to Chelsea has perhaps got the Birmingham squad rocking but they have a very easy assignment on Sunday when they aim to make a return to winning ways by welcoming the only team that finished above them in The Championship last season – Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Alex McLeish didn’t have much luck in January, with Birmingham not managing a win that month and several of their bids for some high profile individuals being turned down by various clubs. The Scotsman has quickly come to the conclusion that Birmingham aren’t as strong in the final third as he would like. However, he could only watch on with despair as bids for Ryan Babel & Roman Pavlyuchenko got rejected by Liverpool & Tottenham respectively. To be fair, it wasn’t surprising that McLeish did target some forwards as Birmingham, despite previously enjoying a glorious unbeaten run of twelve games in the league, have looked very weak up top in front of goal, with the last time Birmingham scored two or more in a Premiership fixture coming back in December when they beat Blackburn 2-1 at St. Andrews. They have since failed to surpass the one goal marker in their last six league games and their finishing on Sunday against Spurs was the evidence to back up their poor goalscoring antics this season.

Although their unbeaten run did come to an end a little over a week ago, Birmingham are still undefeated at St. Andrews since the 26^th September, 2009 when they lost 2-1 to Bolton. They haven’t lost a league fixture in front of their home fans in eight games; Winning 4, Drawing 4. However, although this home run of theirs is still alight, they haven’t won at home since the middle of December, drawing their last three home fixtures. Then again, all were against stiff opposition; Chelsea (0-0), Man Utd (1-1) & their latest being Tottenham Hotspur (1-1). All three draws would look worthy results on anyone’s results list but Wolves are one of the weakest teams in the league and questions will be asked of their mental toughness were they not to win on Sunday as doubts will arise over whether Birmingham are still feeling the affects of their Chelsea heartache. 

On face value, and the way Birmingham have gone about their business for most of this season, this should be a home win, although we don’t think it will be a walk in the park as Birmingham don’t win games comfortably. We’ve mentioned this fact, or run, so many times and until it changes we won’t stop mentioning it as it’s a possible moneymaker – All of Birmingham’s nine victories in the league have been by a 1 goal margin, with six being 1-0 wins. That’s a staggering statistic as you could of made a fortune betting on Birmingham to win by one goal this season. Also, Birmingham did beat Wolves 1-0 at Molineux earlier in the season… We think a predictable pattern has been formed!

Wolverhampton Wanderers

League Position: 17th

Recent Form: LLLDD

This losing trend of theirs has come to end and has been halted by a pair of draws, two decent ones as well. Mick McCarthy will pin his hopes of his sides draws with Liverpool & Hull City building some momentum as they will need plenty of it heading to St. Andrews. The incentive though, as if they needed one with the club so perilously close to the relegation zone, is to avenge the defeat they suffered at the hands of Birmingham back in November when they lost 1-0 at Molineux. However, that defeat catapulted Wolves into winning three of their following four league games and they’ll be hoping a win over Birmingham will send them on their way onto another point baring run.

Wolves have had to work damn hard in their recent outings, frustrating Liverpool at Molineux in a goalless draw and then giving Hull a good scare at The KC last Sunday, earning a 2-2 draw. The draw wasn’t the best of results as it was a game they could of won on paper, but it did, nevertheless, add a vital point to their cause and it does mean Wolves are now unbeaten in two, which could be the start of a prosperous run, and so long as they avoid defeat on Sunday, Wolves will equal their longest unbeaten run this season of three games with at least a point in this contest. 

The stumbling block, when deciding whether or not to have a punt on Wolves, is just where and how their goals will be scored. Their strikers simply aren’t cut out for the Premiership, even Kevin Doyle who has been their shining light this season, and this has been evident all season. The Wolves’ have scored just 19 league goals this season, averaging under a-goal-a-game and their two goals at Hull last Sunday ended a four match run without scoring a league goal. However, their goals on Sunday weren’t without a bit of good fortune, with their first being a freaky own goal and their second coming from the spot. So, in reality, Wolves still haven’t scored from open play in over 450 minutes of Premiership football.

We feel it’s asking too much of Wolves to win at St. Andrews this Sunday as we can’t see them scoring to make this a competitive affair. Their best option is playing for the draw, but they won’t do that as they will feel this is a fixture they have every right of winning. However, Birmingham have one of the leanest defensive records in the league, home and away, and it will take some doing outscoring Birmingham on their own patch. Still, we mustn’t forget Wolves did produce one of the shocks of the season when they beat Tottenham 1-0 at White Hart Lane, so, miracles can happen?!

Match Verdict: Birmingham City to WIN – 1.85 Expekt

We don’t like backing draws unless it’s too close to call and we wouldn’t feel comfortable wasting any money on a Wolves punt so Birmingham get the nod to make a brisk return to winning ways at Wolves’ expense. We think it will be close, with another one goal margin victory perhaps on the cards for the home side, but we can’t see Wolves breaking down a tough and robust Birmingham defence, and then sticking it past one of the goalkeepers of the season, Joe Hart, and so the preference is for Birmingham City of whom don’t score too many goals themselves but one goal on Sunday really should be enough to see off a weak looking Wolves.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 1.85 Expekt

Draw – 3.50 Boylesports

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 5.00 Bet365

SoccerBetting Value Pick: Birmingham City to WIN by 1 Goal – 3.60 Bet365