Birmingham City V Chelsea

Saturday 26^th December (Boxing Day) – 12:45 GMT (Sky Sports 1)

Birmingham City

League Position: 7th

Recent Form: WWWWD

After watching Birmingham on the opening day of the season, in a game they lost 1-0 against the current champions, Man Utd, we were very confident that they wouldn’t have any problems bypassing this season in terms of survival. However, not even we envisaged the sort of run that would not only see Birmingham take huge strides away from the relegation zone but also into European contention. Alex Mcleish’s men have now moved up into seventh position, just a point off the Europa League spots but, more crucially, twelve points off the bottom three. They are certainly on course to complete their objective of avoiding relegation but will the festive season bring about some rare cases of complacency from what has been a solid Birmingham outfit this season.

Birmingham will face arguably their biggest test thus far on Saturday as they welcome Chelsea to St. Andrews. McLeish has already pitted his wits against Sir Alex Ferguson (Man Utd), Arsene Wenger (Arsenal) Rafael Benitez (Liverpool) and Mark Hughes (Man City at the time), and has faired extremely well on all four occasions. However, Birmingham are still looking for that elusive win over a ‘Big Four’ team as the best they’ve managed this season is two draws with Liverpool and Man City.

If you’re looking for bad omens then look no further than Birmingham’s terrible record over ‘Big Four’ opponents. They are on a drastic run, stretching back over four years, since their last win over the almighty Big Four teams. In the 2004/2005 Premiership season, Birmingham beat Liverpool twice, home and away, and Arsenal at home, but have since failed to record a victory, failing in sixteen attempts. That means Birmingham are without a win over one of the so called ‘Big Four’ in sixteen games but, with the form they are in, who would back against them ending their drought against a Chelsea side on the rocks at present – Us, of course.

The basis of Birmingham’s success this season has been built upon solid defensive foundations. Joe Hart in the City goal has been immense, keeping four clean sheets at home in eight appearances. With the World Cup just around the corner, there is no better incentive for a young keeper to pull out all the stops and he has been doing just that for Birmingham City this season. However, this solid defence, one that has conceded just 18 goals this season, less than the likes of Arsenal & Liverpool, has enabled Birmingham to scrape through games with just a single goal. In the eight victories for Birmingham this season, all eight have been by a narrow one goal margin, which just goes to show how tight they leave it.

St. Andrews is quickly becoming a happy hunting ground for the Blues as they’ve fallen to defeat only twice there all season. They are unbeaten at home in their last five appearances, winning four and drawing one, but Chelsea will be their hardest home fixture to date. City do, though, boast an incredibly strong goalscoring record at home of 8-5, and although the amount of goals scored isn’t all that impressive, the fact that they’ve conceded just a measly five, the joint best home defence in the league, just goes to show how difficult a side they are to break down at St. Andrews.

Chelsea

League Position: 1st

Recent Form: WLDWD

Stamford Bridge is rocking at present after just one win in four games for Chelsea. They started the season like a train on fire and appeared to be in cruise control at one stage, but their weaknesses, ones we weren’t even sure existed just a month or so ago, are rapidly coming to light and it’s their defence where all their problems lye. Carlo Ancelotti’s new year resolution will be to reinforce what has been a vulnerable Chelsea back four of late but will he have enough strength in depth to get the club through a gruelling fixture period.

The answer to that silly question is fairly simple – Yes! It’s quite unbelievable how much quality Ancelotti has at his disposal. However, he hasn’t been getting the best of out them of late, especially his defenders, as Chelsea have been well below par in their recent outings. Their apparent defensive issues came to light, once again, at Upton Park last Sunday in a game which was widely expected to of the way of the home side, Chelsea. However, Chelsea were extremely poor on the day and looked an ordinary outfit throughout most of the game, and were it not for a ridiculous penalty decision given in their favour, Chelsea could of left Upton Park with their tails between their legs.

Chelsea’s performance at Upton Park, home of West Ham United, was one of the poorest from them we’ve seen this season. There was no urgency in their play, the pace of their attacks was lethargic at times, whilst their defence was at sixes and sevens, and has been for several weeks now. It’s clear that this poor run of one win in four games, league wise, is affecting the confidence of the players and, in particular, their defence, which has been all over the place recently. Defenders aren’t even marking strikers anymore, the full-backs are getting skinned with ease but, more staggeringly, is that there is no communication and no organisation at the back, whatsoever. John Terry, not only the Chelsea skipper but also England’s, has gone missing of late in games and it could be a case that his off the pitch antics regarding something to do with ticket touting could be affecting his performances, although he’s been under performing for some time now.  

It’s been a poor run of form and the confidence in camp won’t be great but Chelsea do still have, by far and away, one of the better squads in the league and do still appear too strong for Birmingham on paper. However, their performances of late have been shoddy, which is unlike Chelsea, and it’s hard to back them with a great deal of confidence knowing that another ugly display isn’t out of the question. Still, the talent is certainly there, word class at that, it’s just a case of whether Carlo Ancelotti can raise the spirit of the camp as the Chelsea dressing room does need a big confidence lift.

Head-to-Head (Last 10):

Birmingham City W: 0 Chelsea W: 6 Draw: 2

It’s basically been one way traffic when ever these two have met, bar two occasions. Chelsea have beaten Birmingham at St. Andrews three times out of a possible four, with the only exception being a 0-0 draw back in 2006. The last times these two met was back in the 2007.2008 campaign and it was Chelsea who completed a league double over Birmingham, the second time they had achieved such a feat in four attempts, beating by one goal in both encounters; 3-2 at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea) and 1-0 at St. Andrews.

Match Verdict: Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

Birmingham are on a spirited run but we can see all their hard work coming to an end in Saturday’s home clash with Chelsea. Birmingham will give Chelsea a run for their money, though, and certainly won’t roll over. In fact, if Chelsea have another bad day at the office then a shock could very well be on the cards. We can’t, however, see Chelsea putting in yet another abysmal display and a clinical Chelsea is in the closest somewhere, eager to let rip. Whether it will be against a stubborn Birmingham City is another question but Chelsea are a handsome price, considering Birmingham are a promoted side, to comply at St. Andrews in a venue they’ve won three times at in four attempts.

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 7.50 Coral

Draw – 4.00 Bet365

Chelsea – 1.55 Expekt

Fancy a challenge?! – All of Birmingham’s eight victories have been by a one goal margin, whereas just four of Chelsea’s thirteen wins have been by the same one goal margin. However, a one goal victory is Chelsea’s most common victory margin but, with Birmingham boasting all the form, which team, if either, will win by a narrow one goal?

Birmingham City to WIN by 1 goal – 10.00 BlueSquare

Chelsea to WIN by 1 goal – 3.50 Bet365

Our challenge pick – Chelsea!

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