Arsenal V FC Porto: Champions League Betting (Last-Sixteen)

Arsenal V FC Porto

Tuesday, 9^th March – 19:45 GMT

First Leg: FC Porto 2-1 Arsenal

The first leg finished in controversial circumstances as FC Porto clinched a vital home win to boost their Quarter-Final claims. However, their winner, scored by Colombian Falcao, was met by stinging criticism by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger because Falcoa was allowed to stroke the ball home into an empty net after the referee acknowledged Porto’s quickly taken free-kick. While the entire Arsenal squad were left feeling aggrieved, they only had themselves to blame after gifting the Portuguese side both of their goals, with Porto’s first coming by virtue of a goalkeeping howler from Lukasz Fabianski, while their second, that of Falcao’s, was made possible after Sol Campbell’s intended back pass for Fabianski in the Arsenal goal was picked up.

The first leg was a catalogue of errors for the Gunners as their mistakes proved costly. However, there was one positive to take from the game and that was Sol Campbell’s 18^th minute header. His first goal for the club since re-joining the Gunners in January ensured Arsenal at least left Porto with a vital away goal, a goal which leaves this tie firmly hanging by a knife edge. However, Arsenal are still favoured by the bookmakers to see off their Portuguese opponents, with Arsenal a general best priced 1.67. Porto, however, whom hold all the aces after their 2-1 victory in Portugal, are perhaps more attractive at 2.25 with VCbet, although do they have it in them to record a big result on English soil.

Arsenal

Outright odds: 14/1 Coral

It was a good weekend for the Gunners as preparations for this second clash with Porto went to plan with a routine victory over Burnley last Saturday. Granted the performance of the Arsenal team wasn’t the best, but the three points they earned from that win kept up the pressure on Chelsea & Man Utd, with Arsenal now just two points off the pace currently set by Manchester United and full of confidence after their fourth league win the spin. Arsene Wenger will be hoping that victory over Burnley will be the platform to a successful Tuesday night, but will the Portuguese giants spoil the party of another English side.

While Arsenal remain the favourites to qualify at the expense of Porto (Arsenal to Qualify, 1.62 SkyBet), this Porto side can be dangerous, especially when they are being completely written off. Manchester United found out the hard way when they when they fell behind to the then champions of Portugal before eventually finishing with an unsatisfactory 2-2 draw. Should the same result occur at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal would be packing their Champions League bags, so it’s imperative the Gunners don not underestimate their Tuesday night opponents. 

Arsene Wenger was dealt a huge blow though, arguably the biggest he could of ever of imagined before such an important encounter, in that Cesc Fabregas is a major doubt after picking up a hamstring injury during Arsenal 3-1 win at home to Burnley on Saturday. Fabregas, whom opened the scoring for Arsenal at the weekend, is the puppet master in the heart of the Arsenal midfield, pulling all the strings of his fellow midfielders and forward team-mates. His deft little touches, his vision on the ball, his quick interchanges with those around him, all of which Arsenal will sorely miss should he not be fit in time for this clash. Were this nightmare to become a reality then Arsene Wenger will be short of some creative spark in the centre-of-midfield, while the danger runs and clinical finishing from the Spaniard are also fine attributes that Arsenal will have to cope without.

The plus point for you Gunners is playing at the Emirates, a stadium where Arsenal have been notoriously strong at this season with only Man Utd & Chelsea beating Arsenal there in all competitions. Even without Fabregas, Arsenal should still find some sort of attacking rhythm. This should especially be the case after watching Arsenal plug on without their talismanic midfielder in the second half of their weekend game with Burnley, with the Gunners creating more than half-a-dozen clear cut chances in the second half alone. Our only reservation is should Arsenal go a good 45 minutes and then some without a goal that would level the tie on aggregate, do they have an individual willing to step up and become a hero, a role Fabregas would duly fill. We aren’t so sure they do so a strong start is crucial if Arsenal want to switch the pressure back onto their Portuguese opponents and restore the parity lost from the first-leg.

FC Porto

Outright odds: 66/1 PaddyPower

Unlike their English opponents, FC Porto’s weekend didn’t exactly go to plan as they could only warm up for this hotly anticipated last-sixteen clash with a draw back in Liga Sagres in Portugal. Porto, whom were a general 1/5 to win on Saturday night, drew Olhanense, a team second from bottom in the Portuguese SuperLiga. That draw was important as it mean Porto haven’t won a competitive fixture since their victory over Arsenal in the first-leg, which begs the question; are Porto consistent enough in their performances to produce a display worthy of taking them through to the quarter-final stage of the competition?

We would have to say no, with this especially being so after taking a look at Porto’s away fortunes back in their own respective domestic league; PLD: 10, W: 4. Not only that but their previous visit to the Emirates Stadium didn’t exactly go to plan, or well for that matter, with Porto being on the receiving end of a 4-0 whitewash when the two teams met in the group stages of last season. However, Arsenal’s goalscorers that day are either unavailable or no longer at the club, and what with Fabregas, Arsenal’s most influential player being missing, perhaps the Gunners are low on ammunition as Porto head back for another bite at the Arsenal cherry.

Porto rode their luck in the first leg but reaped the rewards as a direct result. Their 2-1 first-leg leaves the tie wide open with both sides boasting serious claims for progression. However, the dangerous factor as far as Porto are concerned is the away goal Arsenal scored, so while Porto do hold the one goal ace card over the Gunners, Porto would need a goal of their own to really pile the pressure on Arsenal. An away goal for Porto isn’t out of the question though considering they put two past Manchester United in the very same stage of last seasons competition. They would, however, need a performance similar to that at Old Trafford a year ago, with some quick breakaways and some clinical finishing. Porto were a menace at Old Trafford that night, bombing forward with electric pace and with plenty of support, and should they deploy similar tactics at the Emirates on Tuesday night then perhaps a shock could be on the cards.

Our Verdict: Draw – 4.00 bWin

Porto are one of those teams which you love to draw, but then know you must attain a positive result in the away leg to leave yourself in the driving seat. While Arsenal do have that away goal, the one goal deficit does leave them extremely vulnerable as the omen is on them to ask all the questions and to commit men forward to attack in order to level the tie. That doesn’t sound at all good for us as Porto are one of the masters at breaking out from defence at an alarming rate, aided by plenty of forward support. Moreover, This Arsenal defence has been found wanting when backtracking against the very best in England on more than one occasions in the past month or two, which has got us thinking that perhaps Porto are the team to side with, at least as far as qualifying goes. One goal from them would leave Arsenal needing at least two goals just to take this tie into extra-time and we wouldn’t put it past the Portuguese champions scoring at the Emirates.

Interesting Fact: In nine previous attempts to reverse a first-leg deficit, Arsenal have only been successful on one occasion.

Match Odds:

Arsenal – 1.62 SkyBet

Draw – 4.00 bWin

FC Porto – 6.50 Bet365