Arsenal V Birmingham City – Saturday 17th October

Kick-off: Saturday 17^th October – 15:00 GMT

Venue: The Emirates

Arsenal

League Position: 5th

Recent Form: LLWWW

Arsene Wenger will be fully aware that a victory this weekend would lift his young squad back into the top four as Man City take on Wigan Athletic the following day. With this in mind, you would feel the players will be that little bit more motivated to secure the win they need to jump right back into the area they feel most comfortable and, more importantly, keep their name in the title frame.

It’s been a pleasant start to the season for the Gunners, with five wins in seven outings in the league, that doesn’t include a Carling Cup success and two Champions League victories, also. However, Arsenal have come unstuck against the better opposition in the league thus far in Man Utd & Man City, but they won’t have to face anything like those two this Saturday. What awaits them is a Birmingham side who actually stole two points from Arsenal on their very last visit to the Emirates, two seasons ago. Complacency could have been an issue back then and it’s down to Arsene Wenger to erase any such case on Saturday.

It’s three wins on the spin now for Arsenal, with victories over Wigan Athletic, Fulham & a 6-2 demolition of Blackburn Rovers being their most recent success. Finding the opposing goal hasn’t been an issue for the Gunners with Arsenal already scoring a mammoth 24 goals this season, the highest tally in the league at current. To bolster their profile, they’ve been even more deadlier in front of goal at home, with 14 of the 24 goals coming at The Emirates, scoring 4,4 & 6 respectively.

Arsenal do have to contend with the possibility of some of their key players coming back a bit heavy legged after internationals, but they should recover in time for this clash. However, even with this in mind, we quite fancy the Gunners to make a solid start, with Arsenal’s first goal at home being scored on average around the 20 minute mark. They will want to put Birmingham City under the sword right from the off and the odds on Arsenal taking a lead into the break and cementing the victory in the second half looks tasty!

Birmingham City

League Position: 14th

Recent Form: LLWLL

After a decent start from Birmingham, which has seen them register four points in their opening three games, and has since gone to pot. Four defeats in their last five games has seen Birmingham drop to 14^th in the table and go level on points with Hull City,a side currently in the bottom three, with only Birmingham’s lean defence keeping them from entering the relegation zone via goal difference. It’s been two games without picking up a single point, that’s two straight defeats, and now Alex McLeish has a recovery job on his hands as another defeat, what would be their third on the bounce, would almost certainly see his side drop into the bottom three for the first time this season.

A positive, probably the only one right now, has been Birmingham’s defending. They’ve conceded just eight goals in the league thus far, the same as the likes of Man City & Man Utd, which just highlights how ship-tight their back four has been this term, although it’s still early days. However, it’s all good having a tight defence but when you can’t score at the other end, you will obviously struggle to win games. Birmingham’s goal tally of just six goals is the second worst in the entire league, just one shy of Portsmouth’s dire tally of 5. With this said, it’s pretty obvious where Alex McLeish needs to focus his attention on in the upcoming weeks.

A big blow for the gaffer ahead of this road trip to London will be the length of time his main striker will have spent travelling as Christian Benitez returns from international duty with Ecuador, in South America. It’s very rare nowadays that a player arrives back from South America and actually plays the following weekend, even the likes of Lionel Messi often don’t recover fully in time, so Birmingham fans might not have the pleasure of seeing their pacey South American forward in action this weekend which, when you consider that the club’s striking options are already very limited, doesn’t bode well for their goalscoring chances against one of the best sides in the league.

Head-to-Head:

Arsenal W: 6 Birmingham City W: 1 Draws: 3

It will come as no surprise to see that Arsenal are winning the recent head-to-head encounters but Birmingham have been more than a nuisance for Arsenal in recent meetings, even managing to hold the Gunners to a 1-1 draw at The Emirates back in the 2007/2008 Premier League season. That was the very last time these two have met in a league fixture and with Arsenal winning three of the last five encounters on Arsenal soil, the Gunners will be eager to return to winning ways over Birmingham City.

Over 2.5 Goals: 5 Under 2.5 Goals: 5

The goal count may look to be split down the middle but just one of four encounters at Arsenal have finished with three or more goals, that being a 3-0 victory to the Gunners back in 2004. Birmingham have generally gone to London in a bid to steal a point, setting up in a very defensive manner, breaking on the counter if needs be. This shows with the last two meetings both finishing in Under 2.5 Goals, in London.

Key Player:- Cesc Fabregas

The Spanish maestro returns from the Spain camp this week and Arsenal fans will be hoping he continues his rich vein of form for club, with Fabregas already reaching four goals for the season, with his latest coming at home to Blackburn Rovers in Arsenal’s more recent clash in the league. All of Arsenal’s positive play goes through Fabregas, with his deaf touches and pin-point passes often the catalyst for an Arsenal rout. He is often extremely hard to pick up as he just doesn’t stand still on the pitch and Birmingham will need to keep a keen eye on the Spaniard if they are to halt the Arsenal goal express.

Match Verdict: Arsenal to WIN – 2/11 Expekt

Birmingham will aim to frustrate the Gunners right from the off, putting 10 men behind the ball and getting right in the faces of the Arsenal players. However, Arsenal’s swift yet pacey passing is hard to keep under wraps for the full 90 minutes, with the Gunners style of play often tiring and results in opponents being worn out by the time the final whistle goes. It would take a big performance from the away side were they to steal a point away from the Gunners. We aren’t completely confident in Arsenal running riot but they should secure the win they need quite comfortably.

Match Odds:

Arsenal – 2/11 Expekt

Birmingham City – 18/1 Boylesports

Draw – 6/1 SkyBet

SoccerBetting Value Tip: Arsenal to WIN to NIL – 10/11 SkyBet